VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 9
On target
11 – 4
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.36 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.13 – -0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
64.0%
Draw
21.1%
Hamburger SV win
15.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.19–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.70–1.05 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 3.87 xGHamburger SV 0.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Hamburger SV |
Fabio Baldé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 20' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jamie Leweling |
| 27' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 28' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 29' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Grønbæk |
| 31' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 38' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 39' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Chabot |
| 40' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 45' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chema Andres |
| 49' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 51' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 52' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 53' |
Hamburger SV |
Rayan Philippe | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fabio Baldé |
| 54' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 55' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Chris Führich |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chema Andres |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chema Andres |
| 72' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 75' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 81' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 83' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tiago Tomás |
| 90' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.23 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.79 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.92 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Jamie Leweling AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| Deniz Undav AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1.49 | 0.68 | 2.21 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Chris Führich AML | 71 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1.03 | 0.22 | 1.47 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 1.06 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.40 | 1.19 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Arévalo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| William Mikelbrencis MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fabio Baldé ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Albert Grønbæk MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Robert Glatzel Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolás Capaldo Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |