VfB Stuttgart v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 4
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 1
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.47 – -0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
50.7%
Draw
23.5%
Hoffenheim win
25.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.88–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–1.26 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xGHoffenheim 0.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 19' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 58' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 69' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 70' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 89' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tiago Tomás AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ameen Al Dakhil Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Grischa Prömel AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alexander Prass AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ozan Kabak Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |