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VfB Stuttgart v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 15 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
14 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.01 – +0.29
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Benjamin Sesko 9' — goalJacob Bruun Larsen 49' — goalNick Woltemade 59' — goal
VfB Stuttgart 3.01 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 0.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Joshua Vagnoman 5' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 9' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 14' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Angelo Stiller 15' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 16' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 16' — Shot On Post (0.07 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 23' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 36' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Chris Führich 41' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 45' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jacob Bruun Larsen 49' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 56' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 59' — Saved Shot (0.79 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 59' — Goal (0.74 xG, Open Play)Benjamin Sesko 64' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Chris Führich 65' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 76' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 86' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Enzo Millot 91' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Joshua Vagnoman 91' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
VfB Stuttgart attacking right RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' VfB Stuttgart Joshua Vagnoman 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Deniz Undav
9' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Goal Xavi Simons
14' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
15' VfB Stuttgart Angelo Stiller 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Chris Führich
16' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
16' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Arthur Vermeeren
23' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
36' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot David Raum
41' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Joshua Vagnoman
45' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kevin Kampl
49' VfB Stuttgart Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.30 Open Play Goal Deniz Undav
56' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nick Woltemade
59' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.79 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Chris Führich
59' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.74 Open Play Left Foot Goal
64' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot David Raum
65' VfB Stuttgart Chris Führich 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
76' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ermedin Demirovic
86' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Atakan Karazor
91' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jamie Leweling
91' VfB Stuttgart Joshua Vagnoman 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jamie Leweling

Players

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joshua Vagnoman DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.04 1.07
Angelo Stiller MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.97
Atakan Karazor MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 1.14
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.20
Julian Chabot DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Ramon Hendriks DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68
Chris Führich ML 86 0 0 2 2 0.07 0.83 1.27
Deniz Undav FW 78 0 1 3 2 1.16 0.34 1.53
Nick Woltemade FW 78 1 0 2 1 0.78 0.12 1.71
Jacob Bruun Larsen MR 66 1 0 1 1 0.30 0.03 0.33
Ameen Al Dakhil DC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.82
Jamie Leweling Sub 24 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.48 0.51
Anthony Rouault Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Enzo Millot Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.42 0.00 0.44
Ermedin Demirovic Sub 12 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.03 0.21
Yannik Keitel Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42

RasenBallsport Leipzig

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Loïs Openda AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Willi Orban DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Péter Gulácsi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Seiwald DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Arthur Vermeeren MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.44
Bote Baku DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benjamin Sesko FW 88 1 0 2 0 0.44 0.00 0.44
Kevin Kampl MC 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Lukas Klostermann DC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xavi Simons AMC 69 0 1 2 1 0.16 0.37 0.54
David Raum DML 69 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.17 0.24
Christoph Baumgartner Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Nusa Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
El Chadaille Bitshiabu Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lutsharel Geertruida Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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