VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.20
Goals − xG
-0.75 – +0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
45.6%
Draw
24.4%
Werder Bremen win
29.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.77–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 1.75 xGWerder Bremen 1.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 6' |
 Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Stage |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 11' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 11' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 16' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Leonidas Stergiou | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Angelo Stiller |
| 21' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 25' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 25' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 27' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 28' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mitchell Weiser |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 52' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 63' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Werder Bremen |
Felix Agu | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 76' |
Werder Bremen |
Niklas Stark | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amos Pieper |
| 77' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 81' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Friedl | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Bittencourt |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Yannik Keitel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Bruun Larsen |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leonardo Bittencourt |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André Silva |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Burke FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Romano Schmid MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.89 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Niklas Stark DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mitchell Weiser DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 1.31 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.81 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marvin Ducksch FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.77 |
| Felix Agu DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jens Stage MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| André Silva Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonidas Stergiou DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.10 | 0.72 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Chris Führich AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| Nick Woltemade AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 0.51 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jamie Leweling AMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Fabian Rieder Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Yannik Keitel Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |