VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.00 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
68.5%
Draw
17.9%
Werder Bremen win
13.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWDLWLLWL last 10
scored 17
from 22.3 xG
conceded 17
from 23.0 xG
Werder Bremen have scored 14 from 12.6 expected and conceded 19 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLLLWDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 12.6 xG
conceded 19
from 20.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.33–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.30–1.08 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 2.00 xGWerder Bremen 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 5' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 9' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Luca Jaquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chema Andres |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 13' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 17' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 20' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 21' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 23' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Dan-Axel Zagadou | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Stage |
| 40' |
Werder Bremen |
Jovan Milosevic | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 44' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 45' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 50' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 54' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 65' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 70' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 81' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Luca Jaquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 88' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 92' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olivier Deman DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| Jens Stage AMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Jovan Milosevic FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Niklas Stark DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Maximilian Wöber Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Salim Musah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.71 | 1.33 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.63 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1.49 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Tiago Tomás AMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| Dan-Axel Zagadou DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |