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VfL Bochum v 1. FC Magdeburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
VfL Bochum win
39.9%
model 39.6%
Draw
28.9%
model 25.5%
1. FC Magdeburg win
31.3%
model 34.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.9%
  2. 2-1 8.7%
  3. 1-2 8.1%
  4. 1-0 7.7%
  5. 0-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.556.0% Under 2.544.0%
BTTS yes59.5% BTTS no40.5%
VfL Bochum 1+78.0% VfL Bochum 2+44.8%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+75.6% 1. FC Magdeburg 2+41.2%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
VfL Bochum over 2.5 corners
Home corners O/U
81.0% fair odds 1.24
moderate signal · 9943 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
1. FC Magdeburg (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 78%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out VfL Bochum.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

VfL Bochum have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.3% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for VfL Bochum and 1.41 for 1. FC Magdeburg.

Why VfL Bochum

Nothing in the data singles out VfL Bochum.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.52 to 1.41. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why 1. FC Magdeburg can win

1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger rating, 1510 Elo against 1476. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for VfL Bochum, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for 1. FC Magdeburg, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

VfL Bochum: 51% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. 1. FC Magdeburg: 51% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

VfL Bochum are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.52–1.41 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.54–1.40 1-1 12% 56% 60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to win 40.2% 42.9% 43.2% 0.99× 2.33
1. FC Magdeburg to win 34.3% 30.4% 31.0% 0.98× 3.29
Draw 25.4% 27.9% 26.0% 1.07× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum & both teams score 21.4% 21.8% 22.3% 0.98× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.7% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
VfL Bochum & not both score 18.8% 18.0% 21.1% 0.85× 5.56
1. FC Magdeburg & both teams score 18.6% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.56
1. FC Magdeburg & not both score 15.8% 18.0% 13.2% 1.37× 5.57
Draw & not both score 5.8% 8.3% 6.3% 1.31× 12.02
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum & over 1.5 32.6% 30.8% 34.5% 0.89× 3.25
1. FC Magdeburg & over 1.5 27.4% 26.1% 25.7% 1.01× 3.84
VfL Bochum & over 2.5 26.3% 26.1% 28.0% 0.93× 3.84
VfL Bochum & under 3.5 25.9% 26.1% 28.0% 0.93× 3.84
1. FC Magdeburg & under 3.5 22.6% 21.6% 20.9% 1.03× 4.63
1. FC Magdeburg & over 2.5 22.2% 21.6% 22.0% 0.98× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.7% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 16.9% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.6% 18.0% 16.9% 1.07× 5.56
VfL Bochum & under 2.5 13.9% 12.8% 15.3% 0.84× 7.79
VfL Bochum & over 3.5 14.4% 12.8% 15.3% 0.84× 7.79
1. FC Magdeburg & under 2.5 12.2% 12.8% 9.1% 1.41× 7.79
1. FC Magdeburg & over 3.5 11.7% 12.8% 10.2% 1.26× 7.79
VfL Bochum & under 1.5 7.7% 7.9% 8.8% 0.90× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.8% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.8% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
1. FC Magdeburg & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 5.4% 1.46× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.8% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (1UP) 57.9% 58.1% — — 1.72
1. FC Magdeburg (1UP) 52.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (2UP) 40.2% 47.0% — — 2.13
1. FC Magdeburg (2UP) 34.3% 30.6% — — 3.27
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.2% 34.4% — — 2.91
VfL Bochum to win 2nd half 33.9% 34.4% — — 2.91
1. FC Magdeburg to win 2nd half 32.0% 34.3% — — 2.91
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 in 2nd half 79.4% 79.1% — — 1.26
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 in 2nd half 56.9% 54.5% — — 1.83
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 in 2nd half 43.1% 45.5% — — 2.20
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 in 2nd half 20.6% 20.9% — — 4.78
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.1% 75.5% — — 1.32
VfL Bochum over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.3% 58.0% — — 1.73
VfL Bochum under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.7% 42.0% — — 2.38
VfL Bochum over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.9% 24.5% — — 4.08
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (+2.5) 92.1% 92.1% 90.6% 1.02× 1.09
1. FC Magdeburg (+1.5) 80.0% 78.5% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
VfL Bochum (+0.5) 65.7% 68.7% 69.0% 0.99× 1.46
1. FC Magdeburg (+0.5) 59.8% 57.1% 56.8% 1.00× 1.75
VfL Bochum (-0.5) 40.2% 42.9% 43.2% 0.99× 2.33
1. FC Magdeburg (-0.5) 34.3% 31.3% 31.0% 1.01× 3.19
VfL Bochum (-1.5) 20.0% 21.5% 22.3% 0.96× 4.65
VfL Bochum (-2.5) 7.9% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to concede 78.5% 78.8% 80.7% 0.98× 1.27
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet 21.5% 21.2% 19.4% 1.10× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet in 1st half 51.7% 50.7% — — 1.97
1. FC Magdeburg to concede in 1st half 48.3% 49.3% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to concede in 2nd half 58.3% 57.3% — — 1.75
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet in 2nd half 41.7% 42.7% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg over 2.5 corners 84.1% 81.4% — — 1.23
1. FC Magdeburg under 6.5 corners 71.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
1. FC Magdeburg over 3.5 corners 70.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
1. FC Magdeburg under 5.5 corners 59.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
1. FC Magdeburg over 4.5 corners 55.5% 57.2% — — 1.75
1. FC Magdeburg under 4.5 corners 44.5% 42.8% — — 2.33
1. FC Magdeburg over 5.5 corners 40.9% 42.8% — — 2.34
1. FC Magdeburg under 3.5 corners 29.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
1. FC Magdeburg over 6.5 corners 28.5% 28.4% — — 3.52
1. FC Magdeburg under 2.5 corners 15.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 3.5 goals 94.6% 92.4% 94.6% 0.98× 1.08
1. FC Magdeburg under 2.5 goals 83.3% 81.5% 83.7% 0.97× 1.23
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 goals 75.4% 76.2% 72.8% 1.05× 1.31
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 goals 59.1% 59.4% 60.4% 0.98× 1.68
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 goals 40.9% 40.6% 39.6% 1.02× 2.47
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 goals 24.6% 23.8% 27.2% 0.87× 4.21
1. FC Magdeburg over 2.5 goals 16.7% 18.5% 16.3% 1.14× 5.40
1. FC Magdeburg over 3.5 goals 5.4% 7.6% 5.4% 1.41× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg under 1.5 in 1st half 89.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
1. FC Magdeburg under 0.5 in 1st half 57.1% 61.9% — — 1.62
1. FC Magdeburg over 0.5 in 1st half 42.9% 38.1% — — 2.63
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 in 1st half 10.9% 10.8% — — 9.30
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg scores more in 2nd half 39.6% 37.4% — — 2.67
1. FC Magdeburg scores equally in both 37.6% 37.4% — — 2.68
1. FC Magdeburg scores more in 1st half 22.8% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (away no bet) 61.3% 61.9% 62.4% 0.99× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 38.7% 38.1% 37.6% 1.01× 2.62
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg even goals 53.0% 52.6% 54.0% 0.97× 1.90
1. FC Magdeburg odd goals 47.0% 47.4% 46.0% 1.03× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.3% 82.9% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.7% 17.1% — — 5.85
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.3% 68.5% — — 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.7% 31.5% — — 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.3% 55.3% — — 1.81
VfL Bochum to score 2+ in a row 35.9% 36.6% — — 2.74
1. FC Magdeburg to score 2+ in a row 31.3% 29.1% — — 3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.6% 19.6% — — 5.10
VfL Bochum to score 3+ in a row 12.3% 12.0% — — 8.31
1. FC Magdeburg to score 3+ in a row 9.7% 5.6% — — 17.78
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+3.5) 85.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
VfL Bochum corners (+3.5) 80.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+2.5) 78.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
VfL Bochum corners (+2.5) 72.0% 70.7% — — 1.41
1. FC Magdeburg corners (+1.5) 69.7% 65.9% — — 1.52
VfL Bochum corners (+1.5) 62.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-1.5) 37.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
VfL Bochum corners (-1.5) 30.3% 34.1% — — 2.93
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-2.5) 28.0% 29.3% — — 3.42
VfL Bochum corners (-2.5) 21.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
1. FC Magdeburg corners (-3.5) 19.7% 20.2% — — 4.94
VfL Bochum corners (-3.5) 14.5% 15.5% — — 6.44
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 31.9% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 76.2% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 72.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 68.1% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 62.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 58.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 51.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 48.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 41.4% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 37.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 31.9% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 27.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 23.8% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.9% 11.5% 10.7% 1.07× 8.72
2-1 8.8% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
0-1 7.0% 7.4% 5.4% 1.37× 13.51
1-0 7.7% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.51
1-2 8.0% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
0-0 5.8% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.51
0-2 5.2% 7.4% 3.9% 1.91× 13.51
2-0 6.2% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.51
2-2 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.51
0-3 2.4% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.31
1-3 3.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.30
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.31
3-0 3.2% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.30
3-1 4.5% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.29
3-2 3.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
3-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.32
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.31
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.54× 58.32
Any other score 3.4% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (2nd half DNB) 51.4% 52.7% — — 1.90
1. FC Magdeburg (2nd half DNB) 48.6% 47.3% — — 2.12
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum leading at HT (DNB) 55.4% 56.9% — — 1.76
1. FC Magdeburg leading at HT (DNB) 44.6% 43.1% — — 2.32
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum or 1. FC Magdeburg (12) 74.6% 72.1% 74.0% 0.97× 1.39
VfL Bochum or draw (1X) 65.7% 69.6% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
1. FC Magdeburg or draw (X2) 59.8% 57.1% 56.8% 1.01× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum or draw at HT 73.9% 75.0% — — 1.33
1. FC Magdeburg or draw at HT 67.7% 67.1% — — 1.49
VfL Bochum or 1. FC Magdeburg at HT 58.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum or draw (1UP) 65.7% 76.1% — — 1.31
1. FC Magdeburg or draw (1UP) 59.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum or draw in 2nd half 68.0% 65.7% — — 1.52
1. FC Magdeburg or draw in 2nd half 66.1% 65.6% — — 1.52
VfL Bochum or 1. FC Magdeburg in 2nd half 65.8% 65.6% — — 1.52
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.0% 61.5% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (DNB) 54.0% 51.0% 58.2% 0.88× 1.96
1. FC Magdeburg (DNB) 46.0% 49.0% 41.8% 1.17× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to score first 49.3% 46.1% — — 2.17
1. FC Magdeburg to score first 45.0% 41.8% — — 2.39
No goal scored 5.8% 7.4% — — 13.51
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.6% 55.0% 59.8% 0.92× 1.82
Not both teams to score 40.4% 45.0% 40.2% 1.12× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 47.8% 44.3% 49.2% 0.90× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 31.8% 34.5% 30.5% 1.13× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 11.9% 12.4% 10.7% 1.16× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.3% 9.9% 0.84× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.4% 82.6% 80.5% 1.03× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 18.6% 17.4% 19.5% 0.89× 5.74
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.6% 67.4% — — 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.4% 32.6% — — 3.07
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.7% 54.7% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 26.5% 27.1% — — 3.69
Both score 1st half only 13.9% 10.8% — — 9.29
Both score in both halves 6.9% 6.8% — — 14.72
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.2% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.8% 18.9% — — 5.29
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.1% 57.3% — — 1.75
A half without a goal 41.9% 42.7% — — 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.7% 47.2% 45.4% 1.04× 2.12
4-6 goals 30.9% 30.7% 30.5% 1.01× 3.26
0-1 goals 20.4% 22.9% 20.3% 1.13× 4.37
7+ goals 3.0% 1.8% 4.2% 0.44× 54.20
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 1 34.5% 33.8% 33.3% 1.02× 2.95
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 0 24.6% 22.3% 27.2% 0.82× 4.48
1. FC Magdeburg to score exactly 2 24.2% 22.3% 23.5% 0.95× 4.48
1. FC Magdeburg to score 3+ 16.7% 19.6% 16.3% 1.20× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to score exactly 1 33.1% 32.6% 31.7% 1.03× 3.07
VfL Bochum to score exactly 2 25.4% 26.5% 26.6% 1.00× 3.77
VfL Bochum to score exactly 0 21.5% 23.3% 19.4% 1.20× 4.29
VfL Bochum to score 3+ 20.0% 23.3% 22.6% 1.03× 4.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.6% 42.8% — — 2.33
VfL Bochum leading at HT 32.3% 32.9% — — 3.04
1. FC Magdeburg leading at HT 26.1% 25.0% — — 3.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum -1: 2 59.8% 56.8% — — 1.76
VfL Bochum -1: X 20.2% 23.5% — — 4.26
VfL Bochum -1: 1 20.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:1) 59.8% 55.9% 56.8% 0.98× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 20.2% 24.2% 21.1% 1.15× 4.13
VfL Bochum (0:1) 20.0% 24.2% 22.3% 1.09× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:2) 80.0% 79.4% 77.7% 1.02× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.1% 11.0% 13.0% 0.85× 9.10
VfL Bochum (0:2) 7.9% 7.7% 9.4% 0.81× 13.04
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:3) 92.1% 92.7% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.3% 5.8% 6.0% 0.96× 17.24
VfL Bochum (0:3) 2.6% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (0:4) 97.4% 98.1% 96.4% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 2.0% 0.61× 81.90
VfL Bochum (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 0.72× 82.03
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (1:0) 65.7% 70.1% 69.0% 1.01× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.4% 17.1% 18.0% 0.95× 5.85
1. FC Magdeburg (1:0) 15.9% 17.1% 13.2% 1.30× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (2:0) 84.1% 84.6% 86.8% 0.97× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.1% 10.3% 7.1% 1.44× 9.74
1. FC Magdeburg (2:0) 5.8% 6.4% 6.2% 1.03× 15.71
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.6% 48.8% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 24.5% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to concede 75.4% 76.0% 72.8% 1.05× 1.32
VfL Bochum clean sheet 24.6% 24.0% 27.2% 0.88× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum clean sheet in 1st half 57.1% 61.9% — — 1.62
VfL Bochum to concede in 1st half 42.9% 38.1% — — 2.63
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to concede in 2nd half 56.9% 54.9% — — 1.82
VfL Bochum clean sheet in 2nd half 43.1% 45.1% — — 2.22
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum over 2.5 corners 80.7% 81.0% — — 1.24
VfL Bochum under 6.5 corners 76.6% 76.5% — — 1.31
VfL Bochum over 3.5 corners 65.8% 66.7% — — 1.50
VfL Bochum under 5.5 corners 64.8% 62.3% — — 1.61
VfL Bochum under 4.5 corners 50.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
VfL Bochum over 4.5 corners 49.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
VfL Bochum over 5.5 corners 35.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
VfL Bochum under 3.5 corners 34.2% 33.3% — — 3.01
VfL Bochum over 6.5 corners 23.4% 23.5% — — 4.26
VfL Bochum under 2.5 corners 19.3% 19.1% — — 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum under 3.5 goals 93.0% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
VfL Bochum under 2.5 goals 80.0% 77.8% 77.4% 1.00× 1.29
VfL Bochum over 0.5 goals 78.5% 77.7% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
VfL Bochum under 1.5 goals 54.6% 53.2% 50.9% 1.05× 1.88
VfL Bochum over 1.5 goals 45.4% 46.8% 49.1% 0.95× 2.14
VfL Bochum under 0.5 goals 21.5% 22.3% 19.4% 1.15× 4.49
VfL Bochum over 2.5 goals 20.0% 22.3% 22.6% 0.98× 4.49
VfL Bochum over 3.5 goals 7.0% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum under 1.5 in 1st half 85.8% 90.2% — — 1.11
VfL Bochum under 0.5 in 1st half 51.7% 50.5% — — 1.98
VfL Bochum over 0.5 in 1st half 48.3% 49.5% — — 2.02
VfL Bochum over 1.5 in 1st half 14.2% 9.8% — — 10.17
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum scores more in 2nd half 38.3% 37.7% — — 2.65
VfL Bochum scores equally in both 35.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
VfL Bochum scores more in 1st half 25.8% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg (home no bet) 57.4% 56.4% 54.3% 1.04× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 42.6% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum even goals 52.3% 50.7% 50.9% 1.00× 1.97
VfL Bochum odd goals 47.7% 49.3% 49.1% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.6% 28.3% — — 3.53
HT 1-0 19.4% 18.7% — — 5.36
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 1-1 11.0% 11.0% — — 9.13
HT 2-0 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.49
Any other HT score 4.8% 2.4% — — 41.98
HT 0-2 4.6% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.06
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.10
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum at HT / VfL Bochum at FT 23.9% 21.7% — — 4.61
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 18.6% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / VfL Bochum at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 13.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
VfL Bochum at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% — — 16.66
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% — — 28.61
VfL Bochum at HT / 1. FC Magdeburg at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.69
1. FC Magdeburg at HT / VfL Bochum at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.70
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to score last 49.3% 46.6% — — 2.15
1. FC Magdeburg to score last 45.0% 40.2% — — 2.49
No goal scored 5.8% 7.4% — — 13.51
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.2% 92.7% — — 1.08
VfL Bochum to lead by 1 at any time 57.9% 54.9% — — 1.82
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 1 at any time 52.8% 50.8% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.2% 44.6% — — 2.24
VfL Bochum to lead by 2 at any time 27.0% 25.5% — — 3.92
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 2 at any time 22.5% 19.6% — — 5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.9% 14.9% — — 6.69
VfL Bochum to lead by 3 at any time 10.2% 10.4% — — 9.60
1. FC Magdeburg to lead by 3 at any time 7.7% 6.7% — — 14.90
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg most corners 48.6% 47.0% — — 2.13
VfL Bochum most corners 40.5% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 11.0% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.5% 87.4% 84.7% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 76.8% 78.7% 75.7% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.6% 78.7% 75.7% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.8% 72.4% 70.7% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.2% 63.3% 61.8% 1.03× 1.58
1-3 goals 60.3% 63.3% 59.3% 1.07× 1.58
3-6 goals 53.3% 53.2% 55.0% 0.97× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.5% 48.5% 50.0% 0.97× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.7% 48.5% 45.4% 1.07× 2.06
3-4 goals 38.8% 39.2% 41.0% 0.96× 2.55
1-2 goals 38.0% 39.2% 34.8% 1.13× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.9% 35.2% 30.5% 1.15× 2.84
4-5 goals 26.1% 30.2% 25.5% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.4% 14.8% 14.1% 1.05× 6.75
7+ goals 3.0% 2.6% 4.2% 0.61× 39.09
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum never behind 41.4% 48.4% — — 2.07
1. FC Magdeburg never behind 36.4% 44.0% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.9% 50.9% 50.6% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.1% 49.1% 49.4% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.5% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.5% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 93.7% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.5% 82.3% 81.9% 1.01× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 79.6% 77.3% 79.7% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.1% 66.3% 65.5% 1.01× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 56.3% 58.6% 59.0% 0.99× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 43.7% 41.4% 41.0% 1.01× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 33.9% 33.7% 34.5% 0.98× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 20.4% 22.7% 20.3% 1.12× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 17.5% 17.7% 18.1% 0.98× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 6.3% 1.22× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.8% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.4% 92.4% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.1% 75.9% 78.3% 0.97× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 73.4% 72.4% 74.4% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.3% 55.8% 54.3% 1.03× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.7% 44.2% 45.7% 0.97× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 26.6% 27.6% 25.6% 1.08× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.9% 24.1% 21.7% 1.11× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.6% 7.6% 10.0% 0.76× 13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.2% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.56
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.5% 89.2% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.4% 71.5% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.4% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.6% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.6% 28.5% — — 3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.5% 10.8% — — 9.24
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.9% 83.2% — — 1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.3% 79.1% — — 1.27
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 53.0% — — 1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 47.0% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.7% 20.9% — — 4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg not to score in both halves 75.6% 78.4% — — 1.28
VfL Bochum not to score in both halves 71.8% 73.9% — — 1.35
VfL Bochum to score in both halves 28.2% 26.1% — — 3.82
1. FC Magdeburg to score in both halves 24.4% 21.6% — — 4.64
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.6% 58.7% 59.8% 0.98× 1.70
Only VfL Bochum scores 18.8% 16.0% 21.1% 0.76× 6.24
Only 1. FC Magdeburg scores 15.8% 16.0% 13.2% 1.22× 6.25
Neither team scores 5.8% 7.1% 6.3% 1.12× 14.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.3% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.6% 0.92× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 16.5% 17.5% 16.6% 1.05× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.6% 12.1% 14.1% 0.86× 8.24
Exactly 5 goals 9.7% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.8% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.8% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 29.6% 28.5% — — 3.51
2 goals in 1st half 22.1% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.5% 10.7% — — 9.31
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.4% 51.1% — — 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 30.5% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 18.1% 16.5% — — 6.08
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg not to win both halves 91.6% 94.1% — — 1.06
VfL Bochum not to win both halves 89.0% 88.0% — — 1.14
VfL Bochum to win both halves 11.0% 12.0% — — 8.34
1. FC Magdeburg to win both halves 8.4% 5.9% — — 16.91
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to win either half 55.2% 59.1% — — 1.69
1. FC Magdeburg to win neither half 50.4% 54.2% — — 1.85
1. FC Magdeburg to win either half 49.6% 45.8% — — 2.18
VfL Bochum to win neither half 44.8% 40.9% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1. FC Magdeburg not to win to nil 84.2% 83.1% 86.8% 0.96× 1.20
VfL Bochum not to win to nil 81.2% 83.1% 78.9% 1.05× 1.20
VfL Bochum to win to nil 18.8% 16.9% 21.1% 0.80× 5.92
1. FC Magdeburg to win to nil 15.8% 16.9% 13.2% 1.28× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.4% 27.9% 26.0% 1.07× 3.59
VfL Bochum by 1 20.2% 24.1% 21.1% 1.14× 4.15
1. FC Magdeburg by 1 18.4% 17.0% 18.0% 0.95× 5.87
VfL Bochum by 2 12.1% 11.8% 13.0% 0.90× 8.51
1. FC Magdeburg by 2 10.1% 11.7% 7.1% 1.65× 8.51
VfL Bochum by 3+ 7.9% 7.2% 9.4% 0.76× 13.91
1. FC Magdeburg by 3+ 5.8% 7.2% 6.2% 1.16× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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