VfL Bochum v SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

VfL Bochum

1–1

11:00 UTC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 23h before kick-off

VfL Bochum win

49.9%

model 49.6%

Draw

22.4%

model 24.7%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win

27.7%

model 25.8%

502228

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (488 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.6%
2-1 9.6%
1-0 9.3%
2-0 8.2%
1-2 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.8%	Under 2.5	45.2%
BTTS yes	56.8%	BTTS no	43.2%
VfL Bochum 1+	81.8%	VfL Bochum 2+	50.9%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+	68.9%	SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+	32.6%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 60%

67.6% fair odds 1.48

moderate signal · 11123 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 1.5 in 2nd half

2nd half away goals O/U

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 709 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

VfL Bochum carry the stronger rating, 1479 Elo against 1436.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

VfL Bochum have an estimated 49.9% win probability, against 27.7% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.71 for VfL Bochum and 1.17 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Why VfL Bochum

VfL Bochum carry the stronger rating, 1479 Elo against 1436.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why SpVgg Greuther Fürth can win

Nothing in the data singles out SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for VfL Bochum, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

VfL Bochum: 49% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: 46% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

VfL Bochum are the model's most likely outcome at 49.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	502526	1.71–1.17	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	482528	1.63–1.18	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	562321	1.88–1.06	1-1 11%	56%	56%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	562321	1.88–1.06	1-1 11%	56%	56%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to win	56.2%	53.6%	43.1%	1.25×	1.87
Draw	23.1%	24.6%	25.9%	0.95×	4.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win	20.7%	24.6%	31.2%	0.79×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum & not both score	29.0%	25.5%	21.1%	1.21×	3.93
VfL Bochum & both teams score	27.2%	25.5%	22.2%	1.15×	3.93
Draw & both teams score	17.4%	18.0%	19.7%	0.92×	5.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & both teams score	11.1%	13.3%	18.1%	0.73×	7.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & not both score	9.6%	8.4%	13.3%	0.63×	11.96
Draw & not both score	5.6%	8.4%	6.4%	1.31×	11.97

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum & over 1.5	46.7%	44.8%	34.3%	1.31×	2.23
VfL Bochum & over 2.5	37.3%	34.7%	27.8%	1.25×	2.89
VfL Bochum & under 3.5	34.7%	31.1%	27.8%	1.12×	3.22
VfL Bochum & over 3.5	21.5%	21.6%	15.4%	1.40×	4.63
VfL Bochum & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	15.4%	1.16×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	17.4%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.57
Draw & under 3.5	16.5%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.57
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & over 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	25.9%	0.69×	5.57
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	21.1%	0.61×	7.78
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & over 2.5	12.5%	12.9%	22.2%	0.58×	7.78
VfL Bochum & under 1.5	9.6%	8.0%	8.9%	0.89×	12.57
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & under 2.5	8.2%	8.0%	9.2%	0.86×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	8.0%	9.2%	0.86×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	8.0%	9.2%	0.86×	12.57
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & over 3.5	5.9%	8.0%	10.3%	0.77×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	5.6%	8.0%	6.4%	1.24×	12.57
SpVgg Greuther Fürth & under 1.5	5.2%	8.0%	5.5%	1.46×	12.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (1UP)	70.1%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1UP)	39.4%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (2UP)	56.2%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2UP)	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to win 2nd half	45.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
2nd half drawn	33.0%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win 2nd half	21.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	86.6%	—	—	1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	13.4%	—	—	7.48

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
VfL Bochum over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
VfL Bochum under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
VfL Bochum over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (+2.5)	84.5%	82.6%	90.6%	0.91×	1.21
VfL Bochum (+0.5)	79.3%	78.4%	68.8%	1.14×	1.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (+1.5)	67.1%	68.7%	77.7%	0.88×	1.46
VfL Bochum (-0.5)	56.2%	57.0%	43.1%	1.32×	1.76
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (+0.5)	43.8%	43.0%	56.9%	0.76×	2.32
VfL Bochum (-1.5)	32.9%	31.3%	22.3%	1.40×	3.20
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-0.5)	20.7%	21.6%	31.2%	0.69×	4.62
VfL Bochum (-2.5)	15.5%	17.4%	9.4%	1.86×	5.75

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to concede	84.8%	81.4%	80.5%	1.01×	1.23
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet	15.2%	18.6%	19.5%	0.95×	5.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to concede in 1st half	55.5%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet in 1st half	44.5%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to concede in 2nd half	65.8%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet in 2nd half	34.2%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 6.5 corners	79.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 2.5 corners	78.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 5.5 corners	67.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 3.5 corners	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 4.5 corners	53.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 4.5 corners	46.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 3.5 corners	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 5.5 corners	32.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 2.5 corners	21.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 6.5 corners	20.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 3.5 goals	97.7%	97.4%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 2.5 goals	90.8%	92.2%	83.6%	1.10×	1.09
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 1.5 goals	71.4%	71.9%	60.2%	1.19×	1.39
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 0.5 goals	65.4%	67.8%	72.7%	0.93×	1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 0.5 goals	34.6%	32.2%	27.3%	1.18×	3.11
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 goals	28.6%	28.1%	39.8%	0.71×	3.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 2.5 goals	9.2%	7.8%	16.4%	0.48×	12.81
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 3.5 goals	2.3%	2.6%	5.5%	0.47×	38.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 1.5 in 1st half	93.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth under 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 in 1st half	6.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores equally in both	44.6%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more in 2nd half	34.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more in 1st half	20.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (away no bet)	70.9%	68.4%	62.4%	1.10×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.1%	31.6%	37.6%	0.84×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth even goals	56.0%	56.9%	54.1%	1.05×	1.76
SpVgg Greuther Fürth odd goals	44.0%	43.1%	45.9%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.3%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.7%	31.4%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.1%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
VfL Bochum to score 2+ in a row	48.0%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
VfL Bochum to score 3+ in a row	20.7%	19.4%	—	—	5.14
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score 2+ in a row	19.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score 3+ in a row	4.5%	2.6%	—	—	37.85

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum corners (+3.5)	88.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
VfL Bochum corners (+2.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
SpVgg Greuther Fürth corners (+3.5)	75.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
VfL Bochum corners (+1.5)	74.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth corners (+2.5)	66.3%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
SpVgg Greuther Fürth corners (+1.5)	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
VfL Bochum corners (-1.5)	44.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
VfL Bochum corners (-2.5)	33.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
SpVgg Greuther Fürth corners (-1.5)	25.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
VfL Bochum corners (-3.5)	24.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
SpVgg Greuther Fürth corners (-2.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth corners (-3.5)	11.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	74.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.9%	11.4%	10.6%	1.07×	8.80
1-0	9.6%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.52
2-0	9.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.53
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.52
0-0	5.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.53
0-1	5.2%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.53
1-2	5.6%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.53
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.53
3-0	5.9%	7.4%	3.9%	1.90×	13.53
3-1	6.2%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.53
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	57.66
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	57.67
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	57.68
1-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	57.67
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	57.68
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	57.67
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	57.68
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	57.66
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	57.67
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	57.68
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.85×	57.67
4-1	2.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	57.66
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	57.67
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	57.68
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	57.68
Any other score	4.7%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	57.66

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (2nd half DNB)	68.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2nd half DNB)	32.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.33

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum leading at HT (DNB)	70.1%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
SpVgg Greuther Fürth leading at HT (DNB)	29.9%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum or draw (1X)	79.3%	75.4%	68.8%	1.10×	1.33
VfL Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth (12)	76.9%	75.4%	74.1%	1.02×	1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw (X2)	43.8%	46.4%	56.9%	0.81×	2.16

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum or draw at HT	82.1%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
VfL Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth at HT	59.9%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw at HT	58.0%	57.0%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum or draw (1UP)	79.3%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw (1UP)	43.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
VfL Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2nd half	67.0%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw in 2nd half	54.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (DNB)	73.1%	71.1%	58.0%	1.23×	1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (DNB)	26.9%	28.9%	42.0%	0.69×	3.46

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to score first	60.4%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score first	34.0%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
No goal scored	5.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.8%	54.8%	59.6%	0.92×	1.83
Not both teams to score	44.2%	45.2%	40.4%	1.12×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.9%	41.7%	49.1%	0.85×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	32.7%	34.4%	30.7%	1.12×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	11.5%	12.3%	9.8%	1.25×	8.16
Both score & under 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	10.6%	1.16×	8.16

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.9%	82.5%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.1%	17.5%	19.5%	0.90×	5.72

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.8%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.2%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	41.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	46.9%	45.1%	1.04×	2.13
4-6 goals	30.9%	30.9%	30.6%	1.01×	3.24
0-1 goals	20.4%	23.0%	20.4%	1.13×	4.34
7+ goals	3.1%	1.9%	4.2%	0.44×	53.91

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.8%	33.1%	1.08×	2.80
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score exactly 0	34.6%	33.7%	27.3%	1.23×	2.97
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score exactly 2	19.5%	19.5%	23.6%	0.83×	5.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score 3+	9.2%	8.8%	16.4%	0.54×	11.41

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to score 3+	29.2%	26.2%	22.6%	1.16×	3.82
VfL Bochum to score exactly 1	28.7%	26.2%	31.8%	0.82×	3.82
VfL Bochum to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.2%	26.4%	0.99×	3.82
VfL Bochum to score exactly 0	15.2%	19.1%	19.5%	0.98×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum leading at HT	42.0%	43.0%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT	40.1%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth leading at HT	17.9%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum -1: 2	43.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
VfL Bochum -1: 1	32.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
VfL Bochum -1: X	23.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (0:1)	43.8%	42.5%	56.9%	0.75×	2.35
VfL Bochum (0:1)	32.9%	29.4%	22.3%	1.32×	3.40
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.4%	20.9%	1.17×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (0:2)	67.1%	72.6%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	17.3%	15.0%	13.1%	1.14×	6.67
VfL Bochum (0:2)	15.5%	15.0%	9.4%	1.60×	6.68

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (0:3)	84.5%	85.4%	90.6%	0.94×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.4%	5.9%	5.9%	1.00×	16.89
VfL Bochum (0:3)	6.1%	5.9%	3.6%	1.64×	16.94

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (0:4)	93.9%	94.4%	96.4%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.1%	1.2%	2.0%	0.61×	81.41
VfL Bochum (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	1.7%	0.71×	81.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (1:0)	79.3%	78.1%	68.8%	1.14×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	13.0%	12.8%	18.1%	0.70×	7.84
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1:0)	7.7%	7.0%	13.3%	0.53×	14.31

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum (2:0)	92.3%	93.8%	86.7%	1.08×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	5.5%	6.5%	7.2%	0.91×	15.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2:0)	2.2%	2.4%	6.2%	0.39×	41.44

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to concede	65.4%	66.5%	72.7%	0.92×	1.50
VfL Bochum clean sheet	34.6%	33.5%	27.3%	1.23×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum clean sheet in 1st half	65.4%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
VfL Bochum to concede in 1st half	34.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.19

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum clean sheet in 2nd half	52.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
VfL Bochum to concede in 2nd half	47.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum over 2.5 corners	86.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
VfL Bochum over 3.5 corners	75.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
VfL Bochum under 6.5 corners	66.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
VfL Bochum over 4.5 corners	60.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
VfL Bochum under 5.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
VfL Bochum over 5.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
VfL Bochum under 4.5 corners	39.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
VfL Bochum over 6.5 corners	33.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
VfL Bochum under 3.5 corners	25.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
VfL Bochum under 2.5 corners	13.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum under 3.5 goals	87.8%	87.2%	92.4%	0.94×	1.15
VfL Bochum over 0.5 goals	84.8%	82.0%	80.5%	1.02×	1.22
VfL Bochum under 2.5 goals	70.8%	74.3%	77.4%	0.96×	1.35
VfL Bochum over 1.5 goals	56.1%	58.6%	48.8%	1.20×	1.71
VfL Bochum under 1.5 goals	43.9%	41.4%	51.2%	0.81×	2.41
VfL Bochum over 2.5 goals	29.2%	25.7%	22.6%	1.14×	3.89
VfL Bochum under 0.5 goals	15.2%	18.0%	19.5%	0.93×	5.54
VfL Bochum over 3.5 goals	12.2%	12.8%	7.6%	1.67×	7.82

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum under 1.5 in 1st half	80.5%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
VfL Bochum over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
VfL Bochum under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
VfL Bochum over 1.5 in 1st half	19.5%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum scores more in 2nd half	41.2%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
VfL Bochum scores equally in both	31.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
VfL Bochum scores more in 1st half	27.2%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.7%	51.5%	45.4%	1.14×	1.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home no bet)	47.3%	48.5%	54.6%	0.89×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum even goals	51.2%	50.4%	50.9%	0.99×	1.98
VfL Bochum odd goals	48.8%	49.6%	49.1%	1.01×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 1-0	23.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	12.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-1	10.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	9.5%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
Any other HT score	5.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.51
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.64

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum at HT / VfL Bochum at FT	35.2%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Draw at HT / VfL Bochum at FT	18.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at HT / SpVgg Greuther Fürth at FT	10.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / SpVgg Greuther Fürth at FT	8.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
VfL Bochum at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at HT / VfL Bochum at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
VfL Bochum at HT / SpVgg Greuther Fürth at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to score last	60.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score last	33.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
No goal scored	5.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.4%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
VfL Bochum to lead by 1 at any time	70.1%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
VfL Bochum to lead by 2 at any time	39.8%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to lead by 1 at any time	39.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
VfL Bochum to lead by 3 at any time	18.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to lead by 2 at any time	12.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to lead by 3 at any time	3.3%	1.6%	—	—	61.14

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum most corners	54.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
SpVgg Greuther Fürth most corners	34.7%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	84.6%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	76.9%	78.5%	75.5%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.5%	78.5%	75.5%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.3%	70.5%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.1%	63.2%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.4%	63.2%	59.1%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.3%	53.4%	54.8%	0.98×	1.87
3-5 goals	48.6%	48.5%	49.8%	0.97×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.5%	45.1%	1.07×	2.06
3-4 goals	38.9%	39.3%	40.7%	0.96×	2.55
1-2 goals	38.0%	39.3%	34.9%	1.12×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.9%	35.3%	30.6%	1.15×	2.83
4-5 goals	26.2%	30.6%	25.6%	1.20×	3.27
5-6 goals	14.5%	15.0%	14.2%	1.06×	6.65
7+ goals	3.1%	2.6%	4.2%	0.61×	38.94

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum never behind	55.0%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
SpVgg Greuther Fürth never behind	24.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.2%	51.0%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.8%	49.0%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	92.2%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.2%	92.2%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.5%	82.2%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.6%	77.2%	79.6%	0.97×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	66.0%	66.0%	65.4%	1.01×	1.52
Over 2.5 goals	56.4%	58.5%	58.8%	0.99×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.6%	41.5%	41.2%	1.01×	2.41
Over 3.5 goals	34.0%	34.0%	34.6%	0.98×	2.94
Under 1.5 goals	20.4%	22.8%	20.4%	1.11×	4.39
Over 4.5 goals	17.5%	17.8%	18.3%	0.98×	5.61
Over 5.5 goals	7.8%	7.8%	9.2%	0.85×	12.84
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	7.8%	6.4%	1.22×	12.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.8%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.3%	92.4%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.0%	75.9%	78.2%	0.97×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.4%	72.3%	74.2%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.2%	55.2%	54.3%	1.02×	1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.8%	44.8%	45.7%	0.98×	2.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.6%	27.7%	25.8%	1.08×	3.61
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.0%	24.1%	21.8%	1.10×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.7%	7.6%	10.1%	0.75×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.2%	2.8%	4.4%	0.64×	35.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.8%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth not to score in both halves	83.7%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
VfL Bochum not to score in both halves	63.5%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
VfL Bochum to score in both halves	36.5%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to score in both halves	16.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.42

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.8%	58.6%	59.6%	0.98×	1.71
Only VfL Bochum scores	29.0%	26.1%	21.1%	1.24×	3.83
Only SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores	9.6%	7.1%	13.3%	0.54×	14.03
Neither team scores	5.6%	7.1%	6.4%	1.11×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.4%	20.9%	1.07×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.4%	24.3%	0.92×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	16.5%	17.5%	16.5%	1.06×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	14.8%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	9.2%	0.85×	12.85
6 or more goals	7.8%	7.8%	9.2%	0.85×	12.86
Exactly 0 goals	5.6%	7.8%	6.4%	1.22×	12.86

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	12.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	18.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.80

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth not to win both halves	96.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
VfL Bochum not to win both halves	80.8%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
VfL Bochum to win both halves	19.2%	15.9%	—	—	6.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win both halves	3.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum to win either half	68.3%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win neither half	64.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win either half	35.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
VfL Bochum to win neither half	31.7%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SpVgg Greuther Fürth not to win to nil	90.4%	92.1%	86.7%	1.06×	1.09
VfL Bochum not to win to nil	71.0%	75.1%	78.9%	0.95×	1.33
VfL Bochum to win to nil	29.0%	24.9%	21.1%	1.18×	4.02
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win to nil	9.6%	7.9%	13.3%	0.60×	12.61

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VfL Bochum by 1	23.4%	24.2%	20.9%	1.16×	4.14
Draw	23.1%	24.2%	25.9%	0.93×	4.14
VfL Bochum by 2	17.3%	16.9%	13.1%	1.29×	5.92
VfL Bochum by 3+	15.5%	16.9%	9.4%	1.80×	5.92
SpVgg Greuther Fürth by 1	13.0%	11.7%	18.1%	0.65×	8.53
SpVgg Greuther Fürth by 2	5.5%	7.3%	7.2%	1.01×	13.77
SpVgg Greuther Fürth by 3+	2.2%	2.8%	6.2%	0.45×	35.62

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.