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VfL Bochum v SV Darmstadt 98 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
VfL Bochum win
39.9%
model 38.9%
Draw
28.9%
model 26.2%
SV Darmstadt 98 win
31.3%
model 34.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.4%
  2. 2-1 8.6%
  3. 1-0 8.3%
  4. 1-2 8.1%
  5. 0-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.553.0% Under 2.547.0%
BTTS yes57.2% BTTS no42.8%
VfL Bochum 1+76.4% VfL Bochum 2+42.3%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+74.2% SV Darmstadt 98 2+39.2%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.35. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
1-4 goals
Multi goal · usually 76%
78.8% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 78%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out VfL Bochum.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

VfL Bochum have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.3% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for VfL Bochum and 1.35 for SV Darmstadt 98.

Why VfL Bochum

Nothing in the data singles out VfL Bochum.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.44 to 1.35. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why SV Darmstadt 98 can win

Nothing in the data singles out SV Darmstadt 98.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for VfL Bochum, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for SV Darmstadt 98, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

VfL Bochum: 51% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. SV Darmstadt 98: 42% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. VfL Bochum's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

VfL Bochum are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.44–1.35 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.43–1.46 1-1 12% 55% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to win 37.8% 36.4% 31.0% 1.17× 2.75
VfL Bochum to win 36.4% 36.3% 43.2% 0.84× 2.75
Draw 25.8% 27.9% 26.0% 1.07× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & both teams score 19.7% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
SV Darmstadt 98 & both teams score 19.9% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.56
VfL Bochum & both teams score 19.2% 18.0% 22.3% 0.81× 5.56
SV Darmstadt 98 & not both score 17.9% 18.0% 13.2% 1.37× 5.56
VfL Bochum & not both score 17.2% 18.0% 21.1% 0.85× 5.57
Draw & not both score 6.0% 8.3% 6.3% 1.31× 12.02
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 & over 1.5 30.2% 30.8% 25.7% 1.20× 3.25
VfL Bochum & over 1.5 28.9% 26.1% 34.5% 0.75× 3.84
SV Darmstadt 98 & under 3.5 24.9% 21.6% 20.9% 1.03× 4.63
VfL Bochum & under 3.5 24.2% 21.6% 28.0% 0.77× 4.63
SV Darmstadt 98 & over 2.5 24.2% 21.6% 22.0% 0.98× 4.63
VfL Bochum & over 2.5 23.3% 21.6% 28.0% 0.77× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.7% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 16.9% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.1% 18.0% 16.9% 1.07× 5.56
SV Darmstadt 98 & under 2.5 13.6% 12.8% 9.1% 1.41× 7.79
VfL Bochum & under 2.5 13.2% 12.8% 15.3% 0.84× 7.79
SV Darmstadt 98 & over 3.5 12.9% 12.8% 10.2% 1.26× 7.79
VfL Bochum & over 3.5 12.3% 12.8% 15.3% 0.84× 7.79
VfL Bochum & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 8.8% 0.90× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.7% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.7% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
SV Darmstadt 98 & under 1.5 7.7% 7.9% 5.4% 1.46× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (1UP) 55.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
VfL Bochum (1UP) 54.4% 52.7% — — 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (2UP) 37.8% 37.4% — — 2.67
VfL Bochum (2UP) 36.4% 37.4% — — 2.68
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.5% 34.4% — — 2.91
SV Darmstadt 98 to win 2nd half 34.5% 34.4% — — 2.91
VfL Bochum to win 2nd half 31.0% 34.3% — — 2.92
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.1% 79.0% — — 1.27
SV Darmstadt 98 over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.4% 54.6% — — 1.83
SV Darmstadt 98 under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.6% 45.4% — — 2.20
SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.9% 21.0% — — 4.76
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.4% 82.4% — — 1.21
VfL Bochum over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
VfL Bochum under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.3% 42.1% — — 2.37
VfL Bochum over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.6% 17.6% — — 5.67
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (+2.5) 93.6% 92.1% 90.6% 1.02× 1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 (+1.5) 82.8% 82.5% 77.7% 1.06× 1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 (+0.5) 63.6% 62.9% 56.8% 1.11× 1.59
VfL Bochum (+0.5) 62.2% 62.9% 69.0% 0.91× 1.59
SV Darmstadt 98 (-0.5) 37.8% 37.1% 31.0% 1.20× 2.70
VfL Bochum (-0.5) 36.4% 37.1% 43.2% 0.86× 2.70
VfL Bochum (-1.5) 17.2% 17.5% 22.3% 0.78× 5.73
VfL Bochum (-2.5) 6.4% 7.9% 9.4% 0.83× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to concede 76.0% 78.7% 80.7% 0.98× 1.27
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet 24.0% 21.3% 19.4% 1.10× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet in 1st half 54.1% 50.8% — — 1.97
SV Darmstadt 98 to concede in 1st half 45.9% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to concede in 2nd half 55.7% 57.1% — — 1.75
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet in 2nd half 44.3% 42.9% — — 2.33
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 over 2.5 corners 81.3% 81.4% — — 1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 under 6.5 corners 75.7% 76.0% — — 1.32
SV Darmstadt 98 over 3.5 corners 66.6% 67.6% — — 1.48
SV Darmstadt 98 under 5.5 corners 63.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
SV Darmstadt 98 over 4.5 corners 50.8% 53.0% — — 1.89
SV Darmstadt 98 under 4.5 corners 49.2% 47.0% — — 2.13
SV Darmstadt 98 over 5.5 corners 36.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
SV Darmstadt 98 under 3.5 corners 33.4% 32.4% — — 3.09
SV Darmstadt 98 over 6.5 corners 24.3% 24.0% — — 4.17
SV Darmstadt 98 under 2.5 corners 18.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 3.5 goals 93.9% 92.3% 94.6% 0.98× 1.08
SV Darmstadt 98 under 2.5 goals 81.9% 81.5% 83.7% 0.97× 1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 over 0.5 goals 76.8% 76.3% 72.8% 1.05× 1.31
SV Darmstadt 98 under 1.5 goals 57.1% 59.4% 60.4% 0.98× 1.68
SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 goals 42.9% 40.6% 39.6% 1.02× 2.46
SV Darmstadt 98 under 0.5 goals 23.2% 23.7% 27.2% 0.87× 4.21
SV Darmstadt 98 over 2.5 goals 18.1% 18.5% 16.3% 1.14× 5.39
SV Darmstadt 98 over 3.5 goals 6.1% 7.7% 5.4% 1.41× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 under 1.5 in 1st half 88.3% 89.2% — — 1.12
SV Darmstadt 98 under 0.5 in 1st half 55.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
SV Darmstadt 98 over 0.5 in 1st half 44.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 in 1st half 11.7% 10.8% — — 9.27
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more in 2nd half 40.2% 43.6% — — 2.29
SV Darmstadt 98 scores equally in both 36.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more in 1st half 23.0% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (away no bet) 58.6% 57.4% 62.4% 0.92× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.4% 42.6% 37.6% 1.13× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 even goals 52.7% 52.6% 54.0% 0.97× 1.90
SV Darmstadt 98 odd goals 47.3% 47.4% 46.0% 1.03× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.0% 83.0% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.0% 17.0% — — 5.87
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.3% 68.4% — — 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.7% 31.6% — — 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 58.4% 55.2% — — 1.81
SV Darmstadt 98 to score 2+ in a row 33.5% 29.2% — — 3.42
VfL Bochum to score 2+ in a row 32.4% 29.2% — — 3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.0% 19.6% — — 5.11
SV Darmstadt 98 to score 3+ in a row 11.0% 12.0% — — 8.33
VfL Bochum to score 3+ in a row 10.4% 12.0% — — 8.34
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum corners (+3.5) 86.6% 84.5% — — 1.18
VfL Bochum corners (+2.5) 80.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (+3.5) 77.3% 74.8% — — 1.34
VfL Bochum corners (+1.5) 71.9% 70.7% — — 1.41
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (+2.5) 68.8% 65.9% — — 1.52
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (+1.5) 58.9% 57.1% — — 1.75
VfL Bochum corners (-1.5) 41.1% 42.9% — — 2.33
VfL Bochum corners (-2.5) 31.2% 34.1% — — 2.93
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (-1.5) 28.1% 29.3% — — 3.42
VfL Bochum corners (-3.5) 22.7% 25.2% — — 3.97
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (-2.5) 19.9% 20.2% — — 4.94
SV Darmstadt 98 corners (-3.5) 13.4% 15.5% — — 6.44
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 36.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 33.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 30.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 76.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 72.3% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 66.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 63.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 56.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 54.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 46.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 43.7% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 36.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 33.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 27.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 23.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.1% 11.5% 10.7% 1.07× 8.72
1-2 8.5% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
0-1 7.7% 7.4% 5.4% 1.37× 13.51
1-0 7.5% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.51
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
0-0 6.0% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.51
0-2 5.9% 7.4% 3.9% 1.91× 13.51
2-0 5.7% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.51
2-2 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.51
0-3 2.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
0-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.31
1-3 4.1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
1-4 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.30
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.31
3-0 2.7% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.30
3-1 4.0% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.30
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
3-3 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.32
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
4-1 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.31
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.54× 58.32
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (2nd half DNB) 52.6% 52.8% — — 1.89
VfL Bochum (2nd half DNB) 47.4% 47.2% — — 2.12
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum leading at HT (DNB) 51.7% 55.8% — — 1.79
SV Darmstadt 98 leading at HT (DNB) 48.3% 44.2% — — 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum or SV Darmstadt 98 (12) 74.2% 72.1% 74.0% 0.97× 1.39
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw (X2) 63.6% 63.7% 56.8% 1.12× 1.57
VfL Bochum or draw (1X) 62.2% 63.6% 69.0% 0.92× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum or draw at HT 72.0% 74.9% — — 1.34
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw at HT 70.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
VfL Bochum or SV Darmstadt 98 at HT 57.8% 57.1% — — 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw (1UP) 63.6% 71.7% — — 1.40
VfL Bochum or draw (1UP) 62.2% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw in 2nd half 69.0% 65.7% — — 1.52
VfL Bochum or draw in 2nd half 65.5% 65.6% — — 1.52
VfL Bochum or SV Darmstadt 98 in 2nd half 65.5% 65.6% — — 1.52
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.6% 61.5% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.4% 38.5% — — 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (DNB) 50.9% 50.9% 41.8% 1.22× 1.97
VfL Bochum (DNB) 49.1% 49.1% 58.2% 0.84× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to score first 47.5% 46.0% — — 2.17
VfL Bochum to score first 46.5% 46.0% — — 2.18
No goal scored 6.0% 7.4% — — 13.49
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.9% 55.0% 59.8% 0.92× 1.82
Not both teams to score 41.1% 45.0% 40.2% 1.12× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.8% 44.3% 49.2% 0.90× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 32.8% 34.5% 30.5% 1.13× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 12.1% 12.4% 10.7% 1.16× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.4% 8.3% 9.9% 0.84× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.1% 82.6% 80.5% 1.03× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 17.9% 17.4% 19.5% 0.89× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 67.3% 67.4% — — 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.7% 32.6% — — 3.07
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 53.5% 54.8% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 26.1% 27.1% — — 3.69
Both score 1st half only 13.8% 10.8% — — 9.29
Both score in both halves 6.6% 6.8% — — 14.73
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.6% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.4% 18.9% — — 5.29
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.2% 57.3% — — 1.75
A half without a goal 42.8% 42.7% — — 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.0% 47.2% 45.4% 1.04× 2.12
4-6 goals 30.0% 26.6% 30.5% 0.87× 3.76
0-1 goals 21.2% 22.9% 20.3% 1.13× 4.37
7+ goals 2.8% 1.8% 4.2% 0.44× 54.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to score exactly 1 33.9% 33.8% 33.3% 1.02× 2.96
SV Darmstadt 98 to score exactly 2 24.8% 22.3% 23.5% 0.95× 4.48
SV Darmstadt 98 to score exactly 0 23.2% 22.3% 27.2% 0.82× 4.48
SV Darmstadt 98 to score 3+ 18.1% 19.6% 16.3% 1.20× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to score exactly 1 34.2% 32.6% 31.7% 1.03× 3.07
VfL Bochum to score exactly 2 24.5% 23.3% 26.6% 0.88× 4.29
VfL Bochum to score exactly 0 24.0% 23.3% 19.4% 1.21× 4.29
VfL Bochum to score 3+ 17.4% 18.8% 22.6% 0.83× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.2% 42.9% — — 2.33
VfL Bochum leading at HT 29.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
SV Darmstadt 98 leading at HT 28.0% 25.1% — — 3.98
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 -1: 1 62.2% 62.5% — — 1.60
SV Darmstadt 98 -1: X 19.6% 17.5% — — 5.70
SV Darmstadt 98 -1: 2 18.2% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:1) 63.6% 61.4% 56.8% 1.08× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 19.2% 17.8% 21.1% 0.85× 5.61
VfL Bochum (0:1) 17.2% 17.8% 22.3% 0.80× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:2) 82.8% 82.9% 77.7% 1.07× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.8% 11.0% 13.0% 0.84× 9.10
VfL Bochum (0:2) 6.4% 7.7% 9.4% 0.81× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:3) 93.6% 92.7% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.4% 2.4% 6.0% 0.39× 42.01
VfL Bochum (0:3) 1.9% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 42.12
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (0:4) 98.1% 98.1% 96.4% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 2.0% 0.61× 81.94
VfL Bochum (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 0.72× 82.05
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (1:0) 62.2% 65.3% 69.0% 0.95× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 19.6% 17.1% 18.0% 0.95× 5.84
SV Darmstadt 98 (1:0) 18.2% 17.1% 13.2% 1.30× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum (2:0) 81.8% 84.6% 86.8% 0.97× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.3% 10.3% 7.1% 1.44× 9.73
SV Darmstadt 98 (2:0) 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 1.03× 15.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.5% 48.8% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 24.7% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to concede 76.8% 76.1% 72.8% 1.05× 1.32
VfL Bochum clean sheet 23.2% 23.9% 27.2% 0.88× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum clean sheet in 1st half 55.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
VfL Bochum to concede in 1st half 44.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum to concede in 2nd half 58.4% 55.0% — — 1.82
VfL Bochum clean sheet in 2nd half 41.6% 45.0% — — 2.22
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum over 2.5 corners 86.7% 86.2% — — 1.16
VfL Bochum over 3.5 corners 74.7% 71.9% — — 1.39
VfL Bochum under 6.5 corners 66.6% 66.7% — — 1.50
VfL Bochum over 4.5 corners 60.5% 62.2% — — 1.61
VfL Bochum under 5.5 corners 53.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
VfL Bochum over 5.5 corners 46.2% 47.4% — — 2.11
VfL Bochum under 4.5 corners 39.5% 37.8% — — 2.65
VfL Bochum over 6.5 corners 33.4% 33.3% — — 3.01
VfL Bochum under 3.5 corners 25.3% 28.1% — — 3.55
VfL Bochum under 2.5 corners 13.3% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum under 3.5 goals 94.3% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
VfL Bochum under 2.5 goals 82.6% 82.2% 77.4% 1.06× 1.22
VfL Bochum over 0.5 goals 76.0% 77.7% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
VfL Bochum under 1.5 goals 58.2% 58.6% 50.9% 1.15× 1.71
VfL Bochum over 1.5 goals 41.8% 41.4% 49.1% 0.84× 2.42
VfL Bochum under 0.5 goals 24.0% 22.3% 19.4% 1.15× 4.49
VfL Bochum over 2.5 goals 17.4% 17.8% 22.6% 0.79× 5.62
VfL Bochum over 3.5 goals 5.7% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum under 1.5 in 1st half 87.3% 90.2% — — 1.11
VfL Bochum under 0.5 in 1st half 54.1% 50.6% — — 1.98
VfL Bochum over 0.5 in 1st half 45.9% 49.4% — — 2.02
VfL Bochum over 1.5 in 1st half 12.7% 9.8% — — 10.24
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum scores equally in both 37.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
VfL Bochum scores more in 2nd half 37.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
VfL Bochum scores more in 1st half 25.3% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 (home no bet) 59.5% 56.5% 54.3% 1.04× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 40.5% 43.5% 45.7% 0.95× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum even goals 52.9% 50.7% 50.9% 1.00× 1.97
VfL Bochum odd goals 47.1% 49.3% 49.1% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.2% 33.0% — — 3.03
HT 1-0 18.5% 18.6% — — 5.36
HT 0-1 17.5% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 1-1 10.9% 11.0% — — 9.13
HT 2-0 5.7% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 0-2 5.1% 6.9% — — 14.51
Any other HT score 4.6% 2.4% — — 42.00
HT 2-1 3.3% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 1-2 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum at HT / VfL Bochum at FT 21.3% 21.6% — — 4.63
SV Darmstadt 98 at HT / SV Darmstadt 98 at FT 20.7% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.0% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / SV Darmstadt 98 at FT 14.3% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / VfL Bochum at FT 12.8% 12.7% — — 7.90
VfL Bochum at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% — — 16.66
SV Darmstadt 98 at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% — — 28.61
VfL Bochum at HT / SV Darmstadt 98 at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.69
SV Darmstadt 98 at HT / VfL Bochum at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.71
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to score last 47.5% 46.5% — — 2.15
VfL Bochum to score last 46.5% 46.4% — — 2.15
No goal scored 6.0% 7.4% — — 13.49
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.0% 92.7% — — 1.08
SV Darmstadt 98 to lead by 1 at any time 55.6% 54.8% — — 1.82
VfL Bochum to lead by 1 at any time 54.4% 50.9% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.4% 44.6% — — 2.25
SV Darmstadt 98 to lead by 2 at any time 24.8% 19.7% — — 5.08
VfL Bochum to lead by 2 at any time 23.8% 19.7% — — 5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.3% 14.9% — — 6.70
SV Darmstadt 98 to lead by 3 at any time 8.9% 6.7% — — 14.84
VfL Bochum to lead by 3 at any time 8.4% 6.7% — — 14.87
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum most corners 51.7% 51.7% — — 1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 most corners 37.8% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.7% 87.4% 84.7% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.3% 78.7% 75.7% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.0% 78.7% 75.7% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.5% 72.4% 70.7% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.2% 63.3% 61.8% 1.03× 1.58
1-3 goals 61.2% 63.3% 59.3% 1.07× 1.58
3-6 goals 52.3% 53.2% 55.0% 0.97× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.8% 48.5% 50.0% 0.97× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.0% 48.5% 45.4% 1.07× 2.06
1-2 goals 38.8% 39.2% 34.8% 1.13× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.5% 39.2% 41.0% 0.96× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.0% 30.2% 30.5% 0.99× 3.31
4-5 goals 25.5% 30.2% 25.5% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 13.8% 14.8% 14.1% 1.05× 6.75
7+ goals 2.8% 2.6% 4.2% 0.61× 39.10
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 never behind 39.5% 44.1% — — 2.27
VfL Bochum never behind 38.3% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.9% 50.9% 50.6% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.1% 49.1% 49.4% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.7% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.3% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 93.7% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.7% 92.3% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.4% 82.3% 81.9% 1.01× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 78.8% 77.3% 79.7% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 67.2% 66.3% 65.5% 1.01× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 55.1% 58.6% 59.0% 0.99× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 44.9% 41.4% 41.0% 1.01× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 32.8% 33.7% 34.5% 0.98× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 21.2% 22.7% 20.3% 1.12× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 16.6% 17.7% 18.1% 0.98× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 7.3% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 6.3% 1.22× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.1% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.9% 92.4% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.2% 81.1% 78.3% 1.04× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.3% 72.4% 74.4% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.8% 55.8% 54.3% 1.03× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.2% 44.2% 45.7% 0.97× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.7% 27.6% 25.6% 1.08× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.8% 18.9% 21.7% 0.87× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.1% 7.6% 10.0% 0.76× 13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.9% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.57
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.0% 89.2% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.8% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.2% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.8% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.2% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.0% 10.8% — — 9.25
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.4% 83.2% — — 1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.0% 79.1% — — 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 52.9% — — 1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 47.1% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.0% 20.9% — — 4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum not to score in both halves 74.4% 74.0% — — 1.35
SV Darmstadt 98 not to score in both halves 74.2% 74.0% — — 1.35
SV Darmstadt 98 to score in both halves 25.8% 26.0% — — 3.84
VfL Bochum to score in both halves 25.6% 26.0% — — 3.84
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.9% 58.7% 59.8% 0.98× 1.71
Only SV Darmstadt 98 scores 17.9% 16.0% 13.2% 1.22× 6.24
Only VfL Bochum scores 17.2% 16.0% 21.1% 0.76× 6.24
Neither team scores 6.0% 7.1% 6.3% 1.12× 14.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.7% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.6% 0.92× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 16.1% 17.5% 16.6% 1.05× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.1% 17.5% 14.1% 1.24× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.3% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.3% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.0% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.0% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 30.2% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 21.7% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.0% 10.7% — — 9.33
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.5% 51.0% — — 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 30.9% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 18.6% 16.5% — — 6.07
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum not to win both halves 90.6% 94.1% — — 1.06
SV Darmstadt 98 not to win both halves 90.3% 94.1% — — 1.06
SV Darmstadt 98 to win both halves 9.7% 5.9% — — 16.82
VfL Bochum to win both halves 9.4% 5.9% — — 16.85
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Darmstadt 98 to win either half 52.7% 54.3% — — 1.84
VfL Bochum to win either half 51.6% 54.2% — — 1.84
VfL Bochum to win neither half 48.4% 45.8% — — 2.19
SV Darmstadt 98 to win neither half 47.3% 45.7% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VfL Bochum not to win to nil 82.8% 83.1% 78.9% 1.05× 1.20
SV Darmstadt 98 not to win to nil 82.1% 83.1% 86.8% 0.96× 1.20
SV Darmstadt 98 to win to nil 17.9% 16.9% 13.2% 1.28× 5.92
VfL Bochum to win to nil 17.2% 16.9% 21.1% 0.80× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.8% 27.9% 26.0% 1.07× 3.59
SV Darmstadt 98 by 1 19.6% 17.1% 18.0% 0.95× 5.87
VfL Bochum by 1 19.2% 17.1% 21.1% 0.81× 5.87
SV Darmstadt 98 by 2 11.3% 11.8% 7.1% 1.65× 8.51
VfL Bochum by 2 10.8% 11.8% 13.0% 0.90× 8.51
SV Darmstadt 98 by 3+ 6.9% 7.2% 6.2% 1.16× 13.91
VfL Bochum by 3+ 6.4% 7.2% 9.4% 0.76× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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