Vicenza v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.1%
- 1-2 8.8%
- 2-1 7.9%
- 2-2 6.5%
- 0-2 6.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 60.5% | Under 2.5 | 39.5% |
| BTTS yes | 63.8% | BTTS no | 36.2% |
| Vicenza 1+ | 77.1% | Vicenza 2+ | 43.3% |
| Pisa 1+ | 80.9% | Pisa 2+ | 49.3% |
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Away from home Pisa average 0.82 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Vicenza have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Pisa have an estimated 40.7% win probability, against 32.9% for Vicenza and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Vicenza and 1.66 for Pisa.
Why Vicenza
Vicenza carry the stronger rating, 1490 Elo against 1333.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.47 to 1.66. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Pisa can win
Away from home Pisa average 0.82 xG a match.
Key players
Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).
Availability
No lineup on record for Vicenza, so availability is unknown. 1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Vicenza: 53% possession, 20.5 shots a match, 11.5 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Pisa: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Pisa are the model's most likely outcome at 40.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 31/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.27–1.80 | 1-1 12% | 59% | 61% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.