Villarreal v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.59 – -1.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
35.0%
Draw
25.0%
Athletic Club win
40.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 1.59 xGAthletic Club 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Athletic Club attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Villarreal |
Daniel Parejo | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Baena |
| 2' |
Villarreal |
Álex Baena | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tajon Buchanan |
| 13' |
 Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 15' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 16' |
Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 17' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 28' |
Villarreal |
Álex Baena | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 30' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sergi Cardona |
| 31' |
Villarreal |
Álex Baena | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 37' |
Villarreal |
Juan Foyth | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 37' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Williams |
| 42' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 45' |
Athletic Club |
Beñat Prados | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Juan Foyth | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 60' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 68' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Athletic Club |
Maroan Sannadi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Beñat Prados |
| 79' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 82' |
Athletic Club |
Maroan Sannadi | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 92' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 97' |
Athletic Club |
Dani Vivian | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adama Boiro |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñaki Williams AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.12 | 0.83 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Beñat Prados DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Unai Gómez AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nico Williams AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| Adama Boiro Sub | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Yuri DL | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Oihan Sancet Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alex Berenguer Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Maroan Sannadi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Unai Núñez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thierno Barry FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 0.96 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Álex Baena ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.65 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Logan Costa DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Gerard Moreno Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Yeremi Pino Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfonso Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willy Kambwala Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |