Villarreal v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
60.6%
Draw
20.7%
Celta Vigo win
18.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.07–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.85–1.14 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 2.51 xGCelta Vigo 2.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 9' |
 Celta Vigo |
Javier Rodríguez | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 9' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 12' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Álvarez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 28' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alfonso |
| 31' |
Celta Vigo |
Sergio Carreira | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 39' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Álvarez | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 47' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 50' |
Villarreal |
Rafa Marín | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Álvarez | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Alonso |
| 54' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.85 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 67' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 78' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Iago Aspas |
| 82' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Jutglà |
| 83' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfon |
| 85' |
Villarreal |
Alfon | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 88' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Carreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Óscar Mingueza DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.86 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Hugo Álvarez AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.27 | 0.89 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.57 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Pablo Durán AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Ferrán Jutglà Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Fernando López Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Álvaro Núñez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Hugo Gonzalez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Moreno FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Arnau Tenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Freeman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Nicolas Pepe MR | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| Alfonso DL | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Alfon Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Cardona Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayoze Pérez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Partey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |