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Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated

Villarreal
2–3
3.64 – 2.44 xG
Deportivo La Coruna
Shots
31 – 18
On target
9 – 6
Shots in box
17 – 12
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.29 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.64 – +0.56

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Villarreal win
70.0%
Draw
18.5%
Deportivo La Coruna win
11.6%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 12.7%
  2. 1-0 11.7%
  3. 2-1 9.5%
  4. 3-0 9.2%
  5. 1-1 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.555.8% Under 2.544.2%
BTTS yes46.7% BTTS no53.3%
Villarreal 1+88.5% Villarreal 2+63.7%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+52.7% Deportivo La Coruna 2+17.3%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
88/100
Data quality
80/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Villarreal carry the stronger rating, 1585 Elo against 1522.
  • Villarreal have created 1.93 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.32.
  • At home Villarreal average 2.40 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Deportivo La Coruna have scored 1.67 a match from 0.96 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
  • Deportivo La Coruna have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Villarreal have an estimated 70.0% win probability, against 18.5% for the draw and 11.6% for Deportivo La Coruna. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.17 for Villarreal and 0.75 for Deportivo La Coruna.

Why Villarreal

Villarreal carry the stronger rating, 1585 Elo against 1522. Villarreal have created 1.93 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.32. At home Villarreal average 2.40 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Deportivo La Coruna can win

Deportivo La Coruna have created 0.96 xG a match over their last five while Villarreal have allowed 1.50. Away from home Deportivo La Coruna average 1.13 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Villarreal were missing 0.65 expected goal involvements a match against 0.11.

Key players

Villarreal's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Georges Mikautadze (0.56), Gerard Moreno (0.37), Nicolas Pepe (0.35). Deportivo La Coruna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.54), Bil Nsongo (0.22), Mario Soriano (0.18).

Availability

Deportivo La Coruna had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.08 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Deportivo La Coruna: Adrià Alti (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Villarreal: 55% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo La Coruna: 43% possession, 8.3 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.05 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 21:18 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Villarreal are the model's most likely outcome at 70.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.7%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WWDLLWDDLL last 10 scored 21 from 19.7 xG conceded 17 from 14.9 xG

Deportivo La Coruna are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 4 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DDWW last 4 scored 8 from 5.3 xG conceded 5 from 7.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 2.17–0.75 0% 0% 0% Home ✗
ai-blend-oos 2.15–0.96 0% 0% 0% Home ✗
dc-xg 2.27–0.79 2-0 12% 59% 49% Home ✗
dc-xg-oos 2.42–0.76 2-0 12% 62% 49% Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.14.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Nicolas Pepe 18' — goalNicolas Pepe 18' — goalLuismi Cruz 42' — goalLuismi Cruz 42' — goalZakaria Eddahchouri 78' — goalZakaria Eddahchouri 78' — goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 87' — goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 87' — goal
Villarreal 3.64 xGDeportivo La Coruna 2.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Alexander Freeman 7' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ayoze Pérez 15' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Ayoze Pérez 15' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 18' — Goal (0.21 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 18' — Goal (0.21 xG, Open Play)Alexander Freeman 21' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 22' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 22' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)Bil Nsongo 23' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bil Nsongo 23' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Giacomo Quagliata 26' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Giacomo Quagliata 26' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gerard Moreno 33' — Blocked Shot (0.54 xG, Set Piece)Gerard Moreno 33' — Blocked Shot (0.54 xG, Set Piece)Alberto Moleiro 37' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 37' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 39' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 39' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Luismi Cruz 42' — Goal (0.41 xG, Open Play)Luismi Cruz 42' — Goal (0.41 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 46' — Saved Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moleiro 46' — Saved Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Pape Alassane Gueye 51' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pape Alassane Gueye 51' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 54' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 54' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 55' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 55' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 60' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Nicolas Pepe 60' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Georges Mikautadze 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Georges Mikautadze 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nathan Saliba 68' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nathan Saliba 68' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Logan Costa 69' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Adama Traoré 75' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Adama Traoré 75' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Eddahchouri 78' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Eddahchouri 78' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Georges Mikautadze 80' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Georges Mikautadze 80' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pepe 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yeremay Hernández 84' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Yeremay Hernández 84' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 87' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 87' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Ilias Akhomach 94' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Ilias Akhomach 94' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Villarreal attacking right Deportivo La Coruna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Villarreal Alexander Freeman 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
15' Villarreal Ayoze Pérez 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alberto Moleiro
15' Villarreal Ayoze Pérez 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alberto Moleiro
18' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.21 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ayoze Pérez
18' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.21 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ayoze Pérez
21' Villarreal Alexander Freeman 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolas Pepe
22' Deportivo La Coruna Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 0.20 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Giménez
22' Deportivo La Coruna Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 0.20 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Giménez
23' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lorenzo Amatucci
23' Deportivo La Coruna Bil Nsongo 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lorenzo Amatucci
26' Deportivo La Coruna Giacomo Quagliata 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
26' Deportivo La Coruna Giacomo Quagliata 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
33' Villarreal Gerard Moreno 0.54 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
33' Villarreal Gerard Moreno 0.54 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
37' Villarreal Alberto Moleiro 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pape Alassane Gueye
37' Villarreal Alberto Moleiro 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pape Alassane Gueye
39' Deportivo La Coruna Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lorenzo Amatucci
39' Deportivo La Coruna Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lorenzo Amatucci
42' Deportivo La Coruna Luismi Cruz 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
42' Deportivo La Coruna Luismi Cruz 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
46' Villarreal Alberto Moleiro 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gerard Moreno
46' Villarreal Alberto Moleiro 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gerard Moreno
51' Villarreal Pape Alassane Gueye 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nicolas Pepe
51' Villarreal Pape Alassane Gueye 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nicolas Pepe
54' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nathan Saliba
54' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nathan Saliba
55' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pape Alassane Gueye
55' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pape Alassane Gueye
60' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
60' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
63' Villarreal Georges Mikautadze 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
63' Villarreal Georges Mikautadze 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
68' Villarreal Nathan Saliba 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nicolas Pepe
68' Villarreal Nathan Saliba 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nicolas Pepe
69' Villarreal Logan Costa 0.09 From Corner — Missed Shot Nicolas Pepe
75' Deportivo La Coruna Adama Traoré 0.00 Open Play — Own Goal —
75' Deportivo La Coruna Adama Traoré 0.00 Open Play — Own Goal —
78' Deportivo La Coruna Zakaria Eddahchouri 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
78' Deportivo La Coruna Zakaria Eddahchouri 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
80' Villarreal Georges Mikautadze 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Comesaña
80' Villarreal Georges Mikautadze 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Comesaña
83' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Santiago Comesaña
83' Villarreal Nicolas Pepe 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Santiago Comesaña
84' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Zakaria Eddahchouri
84' Deportivo La Coruna Yeremay Hernández 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Zakaria Eddahchouri
87' Deportivo La Coruna Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
87' Deportivo La Coruna Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
94' Villarreal Ilias Akhomach 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tajon Buchanan
94' Villarreal Ilias Akhomach 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tajon Buchanan

Players

Villarreal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nicolas Pepe MR 90 1 0 5 4 0.43 0.12 0.59
Nathan Saliba MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.10 0.10 0.24
Alexander Freeman DR 90 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.21
Sergi Cardona DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.64
Renato Veiga DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Luiz Júnior GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Logan Costa DC 85 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.00
Gerard Moreno FW 79 0 0 1 1 0.54 0.34 0.66
Alberto Moleiro ML 64 0 0 2 1 0.40 0.12 0.83
Ayoze Pérez FW 64 0 1 1 1 0.12 0.21 0.39
Pape Alassane Gueye MC 64 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.10 0.80
Georges Mikautadze Sub 26 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.21
Santiago Comesaña Sub 26 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.06
Tajon Buchanan Sub 26 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
Tani Oluwaseyi Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ilias Akhomach Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01

Deportivo La Coruna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW 90 1 2 3 2 0.62 0.47 1.09
Giacomo Quagliata DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.60
Leo Román GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.61
Ximo Navarro DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Lorenzo Amatucci MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.50
Lucas Noubi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.61
Luismi Cruz MR 79 1 0 1 0 0.41 0.00 0.41
Bil Nsongo FW 68 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.50
Giménez DC 68 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.20 0.61
Mario Soriano MC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Riki Rodríguez ML 56 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Yeremay Hernández Sub 34 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Adama Traoré Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marc Casadó Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Miguel Loureiro Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Zakaria Eddahchouri Sub 11 1 0 1 1 0.06 0.10 0.16
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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