Villarreal v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 1.22
Goals − xG
+1.68 – +0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
54.6%
Draw
23.3%
Osasuna win
22.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.74–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.45–1.08 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 2.32 xGOsasuna 1.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Daniel Parejo |
| 9' |
Villarreal |
Juan Foyth | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 9' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 29' |
Osasuna |
Enzo Boyomo | 0.27 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 31' |
Villarreal |
Juan Foyth | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 32' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolas Pepe |
| 38' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolas Pepe |
| 42' |
Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 45' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 45' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Sergi Cardona |
| 55' |
Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Osasuna |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 65' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ante Budimir |
| 69' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Goal | Álex Baena |
| 74' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iker Muñoz |
| 77' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 80' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 86' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 90' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kike Barja |
| 95' |
Osasuna |
Enzo Boyomo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kike Barja |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aimar Oroz MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| Abel Bretones DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jesús Areso DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén García FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Unai García DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moi Gómez MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bryan Zaragoza Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Raul García Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén Peña Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Pepe MR | 90 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 1.66 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.96 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.85 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Logan Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.11 | 0.90 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye ML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pau Navarro Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Álex Baena Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Tajon Buchanan Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willy Kambwala Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |