Villarreal v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 14
On target
1 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.95
Goals − xG
-0.95 – +0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
38.1%
Draw
24.1%
Real Madrid win
37.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.64–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–2.00 | 1-1 9% | 70% | 69% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 0.95 xGReal Madrid 1.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
 Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 19' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 24' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 26' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 38' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 39' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 39' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 45' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 55' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 61' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.48 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 68' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 70' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 82' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 93' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Vinícius Júnior FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Eduardo Camavinga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jude Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Arda Güler MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Franco Mastantuono FWR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Pau Navarro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Alfonso DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.27 |
| Gerard Moreno FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Rafa Marín Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nicolas Pepe Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayoze Pérez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Thomas Partey Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |