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Vissel Kobe v Kashima Antlers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Vissel Kobe win
36.5%
model 36.9%
Draw
27.0%
model 26.0%
Kashima Antlers win
36.5%
model 37.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.4%
  2. 0-1 9.7%
  3. 1-0 9.7%
  4. 1-2 8.2%
  5. 2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.548.4% Under 2.551.6%
BTTS yes53.0% BTTS no47.0%
Vissel Kobe 1+72.9% Vissel Kobe 2+37.5%
Kashima Antlers 1+72.9% Kashima Antlers 2+37.6%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.31. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Kashima Antlers (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 57%
62.7% fair odds 1.60
moderate signal · 11680 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Vissel Kobe (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 88%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Kashima Antlers carry the stronger rating, 1714 Elo against 1625.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kashima Antlers have an estimated 36.5% win probability, against 36.5% for Vissel Kobe and 27.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Vissel Kobe and 1.31 for Kashima Antlers.

Why Vissel Kobe

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.30 to 1.31. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kashima Antlers can win

Kashima Antlers carry the stronger rating, 1714 Elo against 1625. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vissel Kobe, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kashima Antlers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vissel Kobe: 51% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kashima Antlers: 63% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Kashima Antlers are the model's most likely outcome at 36.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 1.31–1.29 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
ai-blend-oos 1.31–1.32 0% 0% 0% Away ✗
dc-xg 1.21–1.15 1-1 13% 42% 48% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.01–1.20 0-1 13% 38% 44% Away ✗
deep 1.21–1.07 1-1 13% 40% 46% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe to win 39.4% 36.2% 42.9% 0.84× 2.76
Kashima Antlers to win 32.5% 30.6% 31.0% 0.99× 3.27
Draw 28.1% 27.7% 26.3% 1.05× 3.61
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe & not both score 24.2% 21.8% 25.0% 0.87× 4.59
Kashima Antlers & not both score 19.7% 18.0% 17.7% 1.02× 5.55
Draw & both teams score 18.1% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.55
Vissel Kobe & both teams score 15.3% 18.0% 18.0% 1.00× 5.55
Kashima Antlers & both teams score 12.8% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.55
Draw & not both score 10.0% 8.4% 7.1% 1.17× 11.96
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe & under 3.5 31.0% 31.0% 33.1% 0.94× 3.22
Vissel Kobe & over 1.5 27.0% 25.9% 30.2% 0.86× 3.85
Kashima Antlers & under 3.5 26.1% 25.9% 23.4% 1.11× 3.86
Draw & under 2.5 23.1% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 23.1% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.63
Kashima Antlers & over 1.5 21.5% 21.6% 21.2% 1.02× 4.63
Vissel Kobe & under 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 19.9% 0.90× 5.57
Vissel Kobe & over 2.5 19.5% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.57
Draw & over 1.5 18.1% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.57
Kashima Antlers & under 2.5 16.9% 18.0% 13.3% 1.35× 5.57
Kashima Antlers & over 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 17.9% 1.00× 5.57
Vissel Kobe & under 1.5 12.5% 12.9% 12.8% 1.00× 7.78
Kashima Antlers & under 1.5 11.0% 12.9% 10.0% 1.29× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 10.0% 8.0% 7.1% 1.12× 12.57
Vissel Kobe & over 3.5 8.4% 8.0% 10.0% 0.80× 12.57
Kashima Antlers & over 3.5 6.4% 8.0% 7.8% 1.03× 12.57
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 4.9% 6.0% 0.81× 20.57
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 4.9% 6.0% 0.81× 20.57
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (1UP) 53.6% 52.8% — — 1.89
Kashima Antlers (1UP) 47.5% 43.3% — — 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (2UP) 39.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
Kashima Antlers (2UP) 32.5% 30.8% — — 3.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.3% 36.0% — — 2.78
Vissel Kobe to win 2nd half 31.8% 34.5% — — 2.90
Kashima Antlers to win 2nd half 28.9% 26.4% — — 3.78
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.3% 86.6% — — 1.16
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 53.3% — — 1.88
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 46.7% — — 2.14
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.7% 13.4% — — 7.47
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.7% 82.6% — — 1.21
Vissel Kobe under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Vissel Kobe over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Vissel Kobe over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.3% 17.4% — — 5.75
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (+2.5) 94.3% 92.1% 93.8% 0.98× 1.09
Kashima Antlers (+1.5) 83.0% 82.6% 82.0% 1.01× 1.21
Vissel Kobe (+0.5) 67.5% 68.7% 69.0% 1.00× 1.46
Kashima Antlers (+0.5) 60.6% 63.0% 57.1% 1.10× 1.59
Vissel Kobe (-0.5) 39.4% 37.0% 42.9% 0.86× 2.71
Kashima Antlers (-0.5) 32.5% 31.3% 31.0% 1.01× 3.20
Vissel Kobe (-1.5) 17.0% 17.4% 18.0% 0.96× 5.75
Vissel Kobe (-2.5) 5.7% 7.9% 6.2% 1.27× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to concede 70.3% 77.1% 75.3% 1.02× 1.30
Kashima Antlers clean sheet 29.7% 22.9% 24.7% 0.93× 4.37
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers clean sheet in 1st half 59.3% 58.6% — — 1.71
Kashima Antlers to concede in 1st half 40.7% 41.4% — — 2.41
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers clean sheet in 2nd half 50.0% 52.7% — — 1.90
Kashima Antlers to concede in 2nd half 50.0% 47.3% — — 2.11
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 6.5 corners 85.2% 85.2% — — 1.17
Kashima Antlers under 5.5 corners 75.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Kashima Antlers over 2.5 corners 73.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Kashima Antlers under 4.5 corners 61.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Kashima Antlers over 3.5 corners 55.9% 57.1% — — 1.75
Kashima Antlers under 3.5 corners 44.1% 42.9% — — 2.33
Kashima Antlers over 4.5 corners 38.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Kashima Antlers under 2.5 corners 26.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
Kashima Antlers over 5.5 corners 24.9% 24.0% — — 4.16
Kashima Antlers over 6.5 corners 14.8% 14.8% — — 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.4% 95.9% 1.02× 1.03
Kashima Antlers under 2.5 goals 90.6% 92.2% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 goals 70.9% 71.9% 68.2% 1.05× 1.39
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 goals 65.8% 67.8% 68.0% 1.00× 1.47
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 goals 34.2% 32.2% 32.0% 1.01× 3.11
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 goals 29.2% 28.1% 31.8% 0.88× 3.55
Kashima Antlers over 2.5 goals 9.4% 7.8% 12.2% 0.64× 12.80
Kashima Antlers over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.6% 4.1% 0.63× 38.87
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 94.2% — — 1.06
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 68.3% — — 1.46
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 31.7% — — 3.16
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 5.8% — — 17.24
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers scores equally in both 44.3% 43.9% — — 2.28
Kashima Antlers scores more in 2nd half 34.9% 34.2% — — 2.92
Kashima Antlers scores more in 1st half 20.8% 22.4% — — 4.47
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (away no bet) 58.4% 57.4% 62.0% 0.93× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.6% 42.6% 38.0% 1.12× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers even goals 55.8% 56.9% 54.4% 1.04× 1.76
Kashima Antlers odd goals 44.2% 43.1% 45.6% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.5% 92.2% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.5% 7.8% — — 12.82
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 53.7% 50.6% — — 1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals 46.3% 49.4% — — 2.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.5% 45.8% — — 2.18
Vissel Kobe to score 2+ in a row 27.8% 25.1% — — 3.99
Kashima Antlers to score 2+ in a row 22.7% 19.5% — — 5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.0% 12.2% — — 8.20
Vissel Kobe to score 3+ in a row 8.2% 5.7% — — 17.67
Kashima Antlers to score 3+ in a row 5.9% 5.6% — — 17.86
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe corners (+3.5) 92.5% 89.6% — — 1.12
Vissel Kobe corners (+2.5) 87.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
Vissel Kobe corners (+1.5) 81.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Kashima Antlers corners (+3.5) 70.4% 70.7% — — 1.41
Kashima Antlers corners (+2.5) 60.3% 61.8% — — 1.62
Vissel Kobe corners (-1.5) 50.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Kashima Antlers corners (+1.5) 49.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
Vissel Kobe corners (-2.5) 39.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
Vissel Kobe corners (-3.5) 29.6% 29.3% — — 3.42
Kashima Antlers corners (-1.5) 19.0% 20.2% — — 4.95
Kashima Antlers corners (-2.5) 12.3% 15.5% — — 6.44
Kashima Antlers corners (-3.5) 7.5% 10.4% — — 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 38.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
9-11 corners 31.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 72.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 69.4% 67.7% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.8% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 59.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 50.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 49.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 40.2% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 38.2% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 30.6% 32.3% — — 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 27.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 22.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.1% 11.4% 13.4% 0.85× 8.80
1-0 12.5% 11.4% 12.8% 0.89× 8.80
0-1 11.0% 11.4% 10.0% 1.14× 8.80
0-0 10.0% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.52
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.53
2-0 7.5% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.53
2-1 8.0% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.53
0-2 5.9% 7.4% 3.5% 2.12× 13.53
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.55× 57.67
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.56× 57.68
1-3 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 57.67
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 57.68
2-2 4.3% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 57.66
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 57.67
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.65× 57.68
3-0 3.0% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 57.66
3-1 3.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 57.66
3-2 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 57.67
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.19× 57.68
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 57.68
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.37× 57.67
4-1 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.65× 57.67
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 57.68
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 57.68
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 57.68
Any other score 1.3% 1.7% 3.2% 0.55× 57.67
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (2nd half DNB) 52.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Kashima Antlers (2nd half DNB) 47.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe leading at HT (DNB) 56.0% 58.3% — — 1.72
Kashima Antlers leading at HT (DNB) 44.0% 41.8% — — 2.40
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe or Kashima Antlers (12) 71.9% 72.3% 73.7% 0.98× 1.38
Vissel Kobe or draw (1X) 67.5% 69.4% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
Kashima Antlers or draw (X2) 60.6% 63.8% 57.1% 1.12× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe or draw at HT 77.0% 80.0% — — 1.25
Kashima Antlers or draw at HT 70.7% 74.2% — — 1.35
Vissel Kobe or Kashima Antlers at HT 52.3% 47.6% — — 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe or draw (1UP) 67.5% 76.0% — — 1.32
Kashima Antlers or draw (1UP) 60.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe or draw in 2nd half 71.1% 73.6% — — 1.36
Kashima Antlers or draw in 2nd half 68.2% 65.5% — — 1.53
Vissel Kobe or Kashima Antlers in 2nd half 60.7% 64.0% — — 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.4% 69.5% — — 1.44
Neither half drawn 31.6% 30.5% — — 3.28
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (DNB) 54.8% 50.1% 58.0% 0.86× 2.00
Kashima Antlers (DNB) 45.2% 49.9% 42.0% 1.19× 2.00
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe to score first 47.8% 45.6% — — 2.19
Kashima Antlers to score first 42.2% 41.8% — — 2.39
No goal scored 10.0% 7.6% — — 13.17
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.9% 51.6% 49.5% 1.04× 1.94
Both teams to score 46.1% 48.4% 50.5% 0.96× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 46.8% 44.2% 40.0% 1.10× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.1% 34.4% 37.2% 0.92× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 12.3% 13.4% 0.91× 8.16
Not both score & over 2.5 7.0% 8.4% 9.7% 0.87× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.0% 88.9% 86.2% 1.03× 1.13
Both teams to score 2+ 10.0% 11.1% 13.8% 0.81× 8.98
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.3% 75.1% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.7% 24.9% — — 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 65.5% 61.8% — — 1.62
Both score 2nd half only 20.3% 20.8% — — 4.82
Both score 1st half only 10.8% 10.7% — — 9.35
Both score in both halves 3.4% 5.0% — — 20.05
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.8% 86.0% — — 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 14.2% 14.0% — — 7.17
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 54.8% 53.5% — — 1.87
A goal in each half 45.2% 46.5% — — 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.7% 46.9% 47.2% 1.00× 2.13
0-1 goals 33.5% 30.9% 29.6% 1.04× 3.24
4-6 goals 18.9% 20.2% 21.0% 0.96× 4.94
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 2.5% 0.73× 54.11
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.8% 36.4% 0.98× 2.80
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 0 34.2% 33.7% 32.0% 1.05× 2.97
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 2 19.7% 19.5% 19.8% 0.99× 5.12
Kashima Antlers to score 3+ 9.4% 8.8% 12.2% 0.72× 11.41
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe to score exactly 1 36.1% 35.5% 36.4% 0.98× 2.82
Vissel Kobe to score exactly 0 29.7% 26.2% 24.7% 1.06× 3.82
Vissel Kobe to score exactly 2 21.9% 23.3% 24.4% 0.96× 4.28
Vissel Kobe to score 3+ 12.4% 14.3% 14.9% 0.96× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.7% 52.4% — — 1.91
Vissel Kobe leading at HT 29.3% 25.8% — — 3.88
Kashima Antlers leading at HT 23.0% 20.0% — — 4.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe -1: 2 60.6% 62.8% — — 1.59
Vissel Kobe -1: X 22.4% 23.6% — — 4.23
Vissel Kobe -1: 1 17.0% 17.2% — — 5.80
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:1) 60.6% 61.5% 57.1% 1.08× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.4% 25.0% 0.98× 4.10
Vissel Kobe (0:1) 17.0% 17.7% 18.0% 0.98× 5.64
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:2) 83.0% 83.2% 82.0% 1.01× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 11.3% 10.8% 12.0% 0.90× 9.23
Vissel Kobe (0:2) 5.7% 7.7% 6.2% 1.24× 13.02
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:3) 94.3% 92.7% 93.8% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 4.3% 0.55× 42.28
Vissel Kobe (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.15× 42.39
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:4) 98.5% 98.1% 97.9% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.86× 81.70
Vissel Kobe (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 1.55× 81.79
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (1:0) 67.5% 69.5% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
Draw (1:0) 19.9% 17.1% 19.3% 0.89× 5.85
Kashima Antlers (1:0) 12.6% 12.8% 11.9% 1.07× 7.84
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe (2:0) 87.4% 88.3% 88.1% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.8% 6.6% 6.0% 1.09× 15.25
Kashima Antlers (2:0) 3.8% 2.4% 6.0% 0.40× 41.35
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.7% 48.2% — — 2.08
Halves equal 27.6% 26.5% — — 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.5% — — 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe to concede 65.8% 66.5% 68.0% 0.98× 1.50
Vissel Kobe clean sheet 34.2% 33.5% 32.0% 1.05× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe clean sheet in 1st half 65.1% 68.6% — — 1.46
Vissel Kobe to concede in 1st half 34.9% 31.4% — — 3.19
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe clean sheet in 2nd half 52.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Vissel Kobe to concede in 2nd half 47.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe over 2.5 corners 88.6% 86.3% — — 1.16
Vissel Kobe over 3.5 corners 77.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Vissel Kobe under 6.5 corners 64.0% 62.2% — — 1.61
Vissel Kobe over 4.5 corners 63.7% 62.2% — — 1.61
Vissel Kobe under 5.5 corners 50.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Vissel Kobe over 5.5 corners 49.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
Vissel Kobe under 4.5 corners 36.3% 37.8% — — 2.65
Vissel Kobe over 6.5 corners 36.0% 37.8% — — 2.65
Vissel Kobe under 3.5 corners 22.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Vissel Kobe under 2.5 corners 11.4% 13.7% — — 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe under 3.5 goals 96.5% 96.3% 94.9% 1.01× 1.04
Vissel Kobe under 2.5 goals 87.6% 87.2% 85.1% 1.02× 1.15
Vissel Kobe over 0.5 goals 70.3% 74.3% 75.3% 0.99× 1.35
Vissel Kobe under 1.5 goals 65.7% 67.9% 60.9% 1.11× 1.47
Vissel Kobe over 1.5 goals 34.3% 32.1% 39.1% 0.82× 3.11
Vissel Kobe under 0.5 goals 29.7% 25.7% 24.7% 1.04× 3.89
Vissel Kobe over 2.5 goals 12.4% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.82
Vissel Kobe over 3.5 goals 3.5% 3.7% 5.1% 0.73× 26.98
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe under 1.5 in 1st half 90.3% 95.2% — — 1.05
Vissel Kobe under 0.5 in 1st half 59.3% 58.2% — — 1.72
Vissel Kobe over 0.5 in 1st half 40.7% 41.8% — — 2.39
Vissel Kobe over 1.5 in 1st half 9.7% 4.8% — — 20.98
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe scores equally in both 41.4% 42.4% — — 2.36
Vissel Kobe scores more in 2nd half 34.7% 32.9% — — 3.04
Vissel Kobe scores more in 1st half 23.9% 21.6% — — 4.63
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (home no bet) 53.7% 51.5% 54.1% 0.95× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.3% 48.5% 45.9% 1.06× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe even goals 54.4% 50.4% 52.4% 0.96× 1.98
Vissel Kobe odd goals 45.6% 49.6% 47.6% 1.04× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.6% 38.8% — — 2.57
HT 1-0 20.2% 24.1% — — 4.15
HT 0-1 16.6% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 1-1 8.6% 7.1% — — 14.00
HT 2-0 5.3% 7.1% — — 14.05
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.3% — — 43.44
Any other HT score 2.6% 2.3% — — 43.52
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.3% — — 43.54
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.3% — — 43.57
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% — — 43.67
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe at HT / Vissel Kobe at FT 22.4% 21.7% — — 4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Kashima Antlers at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 16.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Vissel Kobe at FT 15.3% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 13.9% 12.7% — — 7.89
Vissel Kobe at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% — — 16.74
Kashima Antlers at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% — — 28.75
Vissel Kobe at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.85
Kashima Antlers at HT / Vissel Kobe at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.85
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe to score last 47.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Kashima Antlers to score last 42.3% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 10.0% 7.6% — — 13.17
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.0% 92.5% — — 1.08
Vissel Kobe to lead by 1 at any time 53.6% 50.8% — — 1.97
Kashima Antlers to lead by 1 at any time 47.5% 44.0% — — 2.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 38.8% 34.9% — — 2.87
Vissel Kobe to lead by 2 at any time 21.8% 19.6% — — 5.11
Kashima Antlers to lead by 2 at any time 17.1% 14.9% — — 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.8% 10.5% — — 9.57
Vissel Kobe to lead by 3 at any time 7.0% 6.6% — — 15.12
Kashima Antlers to lead by 3 at any time 4.8% 1.7% — — 59.67
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe most corners 62.0% 60.5% — — 1.65
Kashima Antlers most corners 27.7% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.3% 10.4% — — 9.62
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.8% 83.3% 81.8% 1.02× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.2% 72.3% 69.6% 1.04× 1.38
2-6 goals 65.6% 68.8% 68.0% 1.01× 1.45
2-5 goals 63.6% 63.2% 65.0% 0.97× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.3% 59.3% 59.3% 1.00× 1.69
1-2 goals 49.9% 48.5% 46.4% 1.05× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.7% 48.5% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 39.2% 39.3% 44.3% 0.89× 2.55
3-5 goals 37.2% 39.3% 41.3% 0.95× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.9% 35.3% 35.6% 0.99× 2.83
4-6 goals 18.9% 18.9% 21.0% 0.90× 5.30
4-5 goals 16.9% 18.8% 18.0% 1.04× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.3% 9.0% 8.9% 1.01× 11.15
7+ goals 0.9% 2.6% 2.5% 1.01× 39.03
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vissel Kobe never behind 42.6% 48.3% — — 2.07
Kashima Antlers never behind 36.4% 44.6% — — 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 51.0% 53.2% 0.96× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.0% 46.8% 1.05× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.7% 48.0% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.1% 95.4% 94.5% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.8% 92.2% 88.8% 1.04× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 90.0% 92.2% 92.9% 0.99× 1.09
Under 3.5 goals 80.2% 82.2% 76.6% 1.07× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 66.5% 66.0% 70.4% 0.94× 1.52
Under 2.5 goals 59.9% 58.5% 53.3% 1.10× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 40.1% 41.5% 46.7% 0.89× 2.41
Under 1.5 goals 33.5% 34.0% 29.6% 1.15× 2.94
Over 3.5 goals 19.8% 17.8% 23.4% 0.76× 5.60
Under 0.5 goals 10.0% 7.8% 7.1% 1.09× 12.83
Over 4.5 goals 8.2% 7.8% 11.2% 0.69× 12.84
Over 5.5 goals 2.9% 4.6% 5.5% 0.83× 21.77
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.1% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.9% 97.2% 94.1% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.7% 92.4% 87.2% 1.06× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 75.1% 75.9% 69.5% 1.09× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.5% 52.4% 61.2% 0.86× 1.91
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 45.5% 47.6% 38.8% 1.23× 2.10
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 24.9% 24.1% 30.5% 0.79× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.3% 7.6% 12.8% 0.59× 13.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.1% 2.8% 5.9% 0.48× 35.12
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.17
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.8% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.4% 78.7% — — 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.4% 63.5% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.6% 36.5% — — 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.6% 21.3% — — 4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.2% 7.3% — — 13.77
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.9% 82.8% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 77.7% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.4% 61.6% — — 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.6% 38.4% — — 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.3% — — 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.1% 17.2% — — 5.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to score in both halves 83.4% 84.4% — — 1.19
Vissel Kobe not to score in both halves 79.7% 78.3% — — 1.28
Vissel Kobe to score in both halves 20.3% 21.7% — — 4.62
Kashima Antlers to score in both halves 16.6% 15.6% — — 6.41
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.1% 50.4% 50.5% 1.00× 1.99
Only Vissel Kobe scores 24.2% 22.0% 25.0% 0.88× 4.54
Only Kashima Antlers scores 19.7% 16.0% 17.7% 0.90× 6.25
Neither team scores 10.0% 7.1% 7.1% 1.00× 14.03
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.4% 24.7% 23.9% 1.03× 4.05
Exactly 1 goals 23.5% 22.4% 22.6% 0.99× 4.46
Exactly 3 goals 20.3% 22.4% 23.4% 0.96× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 11.6% 12.1% 12.3% 0.98× 8.30
Exactly 0 goals 10.0% 7.8% 7.1% 1.09× 12.85
Exactly 5 goals 5.3% 7.8% 5.9% 1.33× 12.86
6 or more goals 2.9% 4.5% 5.5% 0.81× 22.24
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.6% 37.1% — — 2.69
1 goal in 1st half 36.8% 37.1% — — 2.70
2 goals in 1st half 17.5% 15.2% — — 6.56
3+ goals in 1st half 7.2% 7.3% — — 13.77
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 38.6% 40.2% — — 2.49
1 goal in 2nd half 35.2% 39.8% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 26.2% 29.7% — — 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to win both halves 93.4% 94.0% — — 1.06
Vissel Kobe not to win both halves 90.7% 93.9% — — 1.07
Vissel Kobe to win both halves 9.3% 6.1% — — 16.46
Kashima Antlers to win both halves 6.6% 6.0% — — 16.65
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to win neither half 54.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Vissel Kobe to win either half 51.8% 54.8% — — 1.82
Vissel Kobe to win neither half 48.2% 45.2% — — 2.21
Kashima Antlers to win either half 45.3% 45.1% — — 2.22
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to win to nil 80.3% 83.1% 82.3% 1.01× 1.20
Vissel Kobe not to win to nil 75.8% 78.3% 75.0% 1.04× 1.28
Vissel Kobe to win to nil 24.2% 21.7% 25.0% 0.87× 4.62
Kashima Antlers to win to nil 19.7% 16.9% 17.7% 0.95× 5.93
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.1% 27.7% 26.3% 1.06× 3.61
Vissel Kobe by 1 22.4% 24.2% 25.0% 0.97× 4.14
Kashima Antlers by 1 19.9% 16.9% 19.3% 0.88× 5.92
Vissel Kobe by 2 11.3% 11.7% 12.0% 0.98× 8.53
Kashima Antlers by 2 8.8% 7.3% 6.0% 1.21× 13.76
Vissel Kobe by 3+ 5.7% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.77
Kashima Antlers by 3+ 3.8% 2.8% 6.0% 0.47× 35.57
Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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