Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627
JPN-J League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.0%
- 1-0 11.6%
- 0-1 11.2%
- 0-0 9.4%
- 2-1 7.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 41.6% | Under 2.5 | 58.4% |
| BTTS yes | 47.5% | BTTS no | 52.5% |
| Vissel Kobe 1+ | 69.6% | Vissel Kobe 2+ | 33.4% |
| Machida Zelvia 1+ | 68.4% | Machida Zelvia 2+ | 32.0% |
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.15. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Vissel Kobe have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.7% for Machida Zelvia and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Vissel Kobe and 1.15 for Machida Zelvia.
Why Vissel Kobe
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.7%. A combined 2.34 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.15. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Machida Zelvia can win
Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1676 Elo against 1625. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Vissel Kobe, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Machida Zelvia, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Vissel Kobe: 51% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Machida Zelvia: 50% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Vissel Kobe are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.08–1.07 | 1-1 13% | 36% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.