Vitesse v De Graafschap — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Vitesse

11:15 UTC

De Graafschap

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 360h before kick-off

Vitesse win

48.3%

model 47.8%

Draw

22.5%

model 21.8%

De Graafschap win

29.2%

model 30.4%

482329

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.5%
2-1 9.2%
1-2 7.1%
1-0 7.1%
2-2 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.6%	Under 2.5	35.4%
BTTS yes	64.5%	BTTS no	35.5%
Vitesse 1+	84.6%	Vitesse 2+	55.8%
De Graafschap 1+	76.6%	De Graafschap 2+	42.7%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 79%

78.8% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Vitesse carry the stronger rating, 1528 Elo against 1486.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vitesse have an estimated 48.3% win probability, against 29.2% for De Graafschap and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.87 for Vitesse and 1.45 for De Graafschap.

Why Vitesse

Vitesse carry the stronger rating, 1528 Elo against 1486.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why De Graafschap can win

Nothing in the data singles out De Graafschap.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vitesse, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for De Graafschap, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vitesse: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. De Graafschap: 52% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vitesse's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Vitesse are the model's most likely outcome at 48.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.5%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	482230	1.87–1.45	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472132	1.91–1.55	1-1 9%	67%	67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win	46.8%	47.3%	44.5%	1.06×	2.11
De Graafschap to win	31.8%	30.4%	33.5%	0.91×	3.29
Draw	21.4%	24.5%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse & both teams score	28.3%	25.2%	22.0%	1.14×	3.97
De Graafschap & both teams score	19.8%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Vitesse & not both score	18.5%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
De Graafschap & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	14.0%	0.95×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.8%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse & over 1.5	40.5%	40.2%	37.0%	1.09×	2.49
Vitesse & over 2.5	34.7%	30.8%	30.8%	1.00×	3.25
De Graafschap & over 1.5	26.6%	26.1%	27.4%	0.95×	3.84
Vitesse & under 3.5	24.6%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.63
De Graafschap & over 2.5	22.8%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Vitesse & over 3.5	22.1%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
De Graafschap & under 3.5	18.1%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
De Graafschap & over 3.5	13.7%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Vitesse & under 2.5	12.1%	12.8%	13.8%	0.93×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	11.8%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	11.8%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
De Graafschap & under 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Vitesse & under 1.5	6.3%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
De Graafschap & under 1.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	2.8%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (1UP)	65.0%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
De Graafschap (1UP)	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2UP)	46.8%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
De Graafschap (2UP)	31.8%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win 2nd half	39.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
De Graafschap to win 2nd half	30.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
2nd half drawn	30.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	79.1%	—	—	1.27
De Graafschap over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.5%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
De Graafschap under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.5%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
De Graafschap over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	20.9%	—	—	4.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Vitesse over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Vitesse under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Vitesse over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.7%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (+2.5)	88.1%	88.5%	88.2%	1.00×	1.13
De Graafschap (+1.5)	74.1%	73.7%	75.6%	0.97×	1.36
Vitesse (+0.5)	68.2%	68.7%	66.5%	1.03×	1.46
De Graafschap (+0.5)	53.2%	52.4%	55.5%	0.94×	1.91
Vitesse (-0.5)	46.8%	47.6%	44.5%	1.07×	2.10
De Graafschap (-0.5)	31.8%	31.3%	33.5%	0.93×	3.19
Vitesse (-1.5)	25.9%	26.3%	24.4%	1.08×	3.80
Vitesse (-2.5)	11.9%	11.5%	11.8%	0.98×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to concede	85.2%	86.2%	81.3%	1.06×	1.16
De Graafschap clean sheet	14.8%	13.8%	18.7%	0.74×	7.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to concede in 1st half	56.1%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
De Graafschap clean sheet in 1st half	43.9%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to concede in 2nd half	66.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
De Graafschap clean sheet in 2nd half	33.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap over 2.5 corners	83.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
De Graafschap under 6.5 corners	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
De Graafschap over 3.5 corners	69.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
De Graafschap under 5.5 corners	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
De Graafschap over 4.5 corners	54.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
De Graafschap under 4.5 corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
De Graafschap over 5.5 corners	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
De Graafschap under 3.5 corners	30.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
De Graafschap over 6.5 corners	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
De Graafschap under 2.5 corners	16.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
De Graafschap under 2.5 goals	79.7%	76.3%	81.5%	0.94×	1.31
De Graafschap over 0.5 goals	78.7%	76.3%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
De Graafschap under 1.5 goals	54.2%	53.5%	58.0%	0.92×	1.87
De Graafschap over 1.5 goals	45.8%	46.5%	42.0%	1.11×	2.15
De Graafschap under 0.5 goals	21.3%	23.7%	27.3%	0.87×	4.21
De Graafschap over 2.5 goals	20.3%	23.7%	18.6%	1.28×	4.21
De Graafschap over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	7.0%	1.09×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 1.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
De Graafschap under 0.5 in 1st half	53.9%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
De Graafschap over 0.5 in 1st half	46.1%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
De Graafschap over 1.5 in 1st half	12.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.43

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap scores more in 2nd half	41.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
De Graafschap scores equally in both	35.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
De Graafschap scores more in 1st half	23.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (away no bet)	68.6%	66.4%	66.8%	0.99×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.4%	33.6%	33.2%	1.01×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap even goals	52.3%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
De Graafschap odd goals	47.7%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.7%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	25.3%	22.8%	—	—	4.38

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.7%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.3%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Vitesse to score 2+ in a row	45.8%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
De Graafschap to score 2+ in a row	33.6%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Vitesse to score 3+ in a row	18.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
De Graafschap to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse corners (+3.5)	86.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vitesse corners (+2.5)	79.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
De Graafschap corners (+3.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vitesse corners (+1.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
De Graafschap corners (+2.5)	69.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
De Graafschap corners (+1.5)	59.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Vitesse corners (-1.5)	40.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vitesse corners (-2.5)	30.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
De Graafschap corners (-1.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Vitesse corners (-3.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
De Graafschap corners (-2.5)	20.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
De Graafschap corners (-3.5)	13.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	30.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
0-8 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	79.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	70.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	69.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 11.5 corners	60.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	60.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	50.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 9.5 corners	39.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	39.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	30.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	29.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	20.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
Any other score	6.5%	7.4%	4.7%	1.59×	13.51
0-1	5.2%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
1-0	6.3%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
2-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	4.9%	1.51×	13.51
0-0	2.8%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
0-2	3.8%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-3	3.5%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-0	3.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.31
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
4-2	2.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2nd half DNB)	56.1%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
De Graafschap (2nd half DNB)	43.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse leading at HT (DNB)	59.6%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
De Graafschap leading at HT (DNB)	40.4%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or De Graafschap (12)	78.6%	75.5%	77.9%	0.97×	1.32
Vitesse or draw (1X)	68.2%	69.6%	66.5%	1.05×	1.44
De Graafschap or draw (X2)	53.2%	52.7%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw at HT	74.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vitesse or De Graafschap at HT	62.8%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
De Graafschap or draw at HT	62.6%	60.9%	—	—	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw (1UP)	68.2%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
De Graafschap or draw (1UP)	53.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or De Graafschap in 2nd half	69.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Vitesse or draw in 2nd half	69.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
De Graafschap or draw in 2nd half	60.9%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.6%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	43.4%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (DNB)	59.6%	58.1%	57.0%	1.02×	1.72
De Graafschap (DNB)	40.4%	41.9%	43.0%	0.97×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score first	53.7%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
De Graafschap to score first	43.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	2.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.24

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.8%	58.4%	58.8%	0.99×	1.71
Not both teams to score	33.2%	41.6%	41.2%	1.01×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.8%	47.5%	49.5%	0.96×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	23.9%	27.9%	28.3%	0.99×	3.59
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	13.0%	0.64×	12.07
Both score & under 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	73.9%	80.6%	79.0%	1.02×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	26.1%	19.4%	21.0%	0.92×	5.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.0%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	40.0%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.5%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Both score 2nd half only	29.7%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Both score 1st half only	15.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Both score in both halves	10.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
A half without a goal	34.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.2%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
4-6 goals	39.3%	35.1%	37.6%	0.93×	2.85
0-1 goals	14.3%	17.0%	18.4%	0.92×	5.89
7+ goals	6.2%	7.6%	3.2%	2.38×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score exactly 1	32.9%	33.8%	30.8%	1.10×	2.96
De Graafschap to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.65
De Graafschap to score exactly 0	21.3%	22.3%	27.3%	0.82×	4.49
De Graafschap to score 3+	20.3%	22.3%	18.6%	1.20×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score 3+	30.0%	26.6%	25.6%	1.04×	3.77
Vitesse to score exactly 1	28.2%	26.6%	30.2%	0.88×	3.77
Vitesse to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
Vitesse to score exactly 0	14.8%	14.3%	18.7%	0.77×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse leading at HT	37.4%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Draw at HT	37.2%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
De Graafschap leading at HT	25.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse -1: 2	53.2%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Vitesse -1: 1	25.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Vitesse -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:1)	53.2%	51.3%	55.5%	0.92×	1.95
Vitesse (0:1)	25.9%	27.0%	24.4%	1.10×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.2%	20.1%	1.20×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:2)	74.1%	75.7%	75.6%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.0%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.09
Vitesse (0:2)	11.9%	11.0%	11.8%	0.93×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:3)	88.1%	90.7%	88.2%	1.03×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	5.7%	1.03×	17.23
Vitesse (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.03

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:4)	95.4%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.83
Vitesse (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.00

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (1:0)	68.2%	70.2%	66.5%	1.06×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	16.9%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.85
De Graafschap (1:0)	14.8%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2:0)	85.2%	88.5%	84.5%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.2%	6.4%	8.8%	0.72×	15.65
De Graafschap (2:0)	5.7%	6.4%	6.8%	0.94×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	21.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede	78.7%	76.1%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
Vitesse clean sheet	21.3%	23.9%	27.3%	0.88×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse clean sheet in 1st half	53.9%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Vitesse to concede in 1st half	46.1%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede in 2nd half	60.5%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Vitesse clean sheet in 2nd half	39.5%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse over 2.5 corners	88.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Vitesse over 3.5 corners	76.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Vitesse under 6.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Vitesse over 4.5 corners	62.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Vitesse under 5.5 corners	51.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Vitesse over 5.5 corners	48.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Vitesse under 4.5 corners	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Vitesse over 6.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Vitesse under 3.5 corners	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Vitesse under 2.5 corners	11.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 3.5 goals	87.3%	87.3%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
Vitesse over 0.5 goals	85.2%	87.2%	81.3%	1.07×	1.15
Vitesse under 2.5 goals	70.0%	74.2%	74.4%	1.00×	1.35
Vitesse over 1.5 goals	57.0%	58.6%	51.2%	1.14×	1.71
Vitesse under 1.5 goals	43.0%	41.4%	48.8%	0.85×	2.42
Vitesse over 2.5 goals	30.0%	25.8%	25.6%	1.01×	3.88
Vitesse under 0.5 goals	14.8%	12.8%	18.7%	0.68×	7.84
Vitesse over 3.5 goals	12.7%	12.7%	10.1%	1.27×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 1.5 in 1st half	80.1%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Vitesse over 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Vitesse under 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Vitesse over 1.5 in 1st half	19.9%	16.4%	—	—	6.12

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse scores more in 2nd half	41.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Vitesse scores equally in both	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
Vitesse scores more in 1st half	27.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (home no bet)	59.7%	56.5%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.3%	43.5%	39.7%	1.10×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse even goals	51.1%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Vitesse odd goals	48.9%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	19.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
HT 0-1	14.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	12.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	8.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	7.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-1	5.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.89
HT 0-2	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	41.91
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	41.97
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.11

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse at HT / Vitesse at FT	28.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
De Graafschap at HT / De Graafschap at FT	17.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Vitesse at FT	14.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / De Graafschap at FT	11.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.9%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Vitesse at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
De Graafschap at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
De Graafschap at HT / Vitesse at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Vitesse at HT / De Graafschap at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score last	53.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
De Graafschap to score last	43.5%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	2.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.24

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.2%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Vitesse to lead by 1 at any time	65.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
De Graafschap to lead by 1 at any time	52.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Vitesse to lead by 2 at any time	34.6%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
De Graafschap to lead by 2 at any time	22.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Vitesse to lead by 3 at any time	15.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
De Graafschap to lead by 3 at any time	8.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse most corners	51.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
De Graafschap most corners	38.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.5%	83.4%	86.4%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.5%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.0%	72.3%	72.7%	0.99×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.5%	72.3%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
3-6 goals	61.0%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.0%	59.1%	60.4%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.5%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
1-3 goals	51.7%	53.2%	54.7%	0.97×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.2%	43.6%	41.0%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
4-6 goals	39.3%	39.2%	37.6%	1.04×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.8%	35.2%	31.8%	1.11×	2.84
1-2 goals	30.0%	35.2%	32.9%	1.07×	2.84
5-6 goals	20.5%	24.5%	18.2%	1.35×	4.09
7+ goals	6.2%	8.9%	3.2%	2.78×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse never behind	44.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
De Graafschap never behind	32.2%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.2%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.7%	87.6%	81.6%	1.07×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	73.3%	72.5%	78.7%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.2%	66.3%	62.4%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	54.5%	52.6%	59.3%	0.89×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	45.5%	47.4%	40.7%	1.17×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	32.8%	33.7%	37.6%	0.90×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	26.7%	27.5%	21.3%	1.30×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	18.4%	0.67×	8.05
Over 5.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.05
Under 0.5 goals	2.8%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.3%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.3%	81.1%	89.8%	0.90×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.4%	81.1%	77.2%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	67.1%	67.5%	73.6%	0.92×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.1%	55.8%	52.0%	1.07×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.9%	44.2%	48.0%	0.92×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	32.9%	32.5%	26.4%	1.23×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.6%	18.9%	22.8%	0.83×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.7%	18.9%	10.2%	1.85×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.7%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.3%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.4%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.8%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.2%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.7%	14.2%	—	—	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.8%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.2%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap not to score in both halves	72.1%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Vitesse not to score in both halves	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Vitesse to score in both halves	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
De Graafschap to score in both halves	27.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	66.8%	59.9%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Only Vitesse scores	18.5%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Only De Graafschap scores	11.9%	11.0%	14.0%	0.79×	9.07
Neither team scores	2.8%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.67

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	18.5%	17.5%	19.3%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.8%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.7%	12.1%	9.0%	1.35×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	13.0%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.5%	12.1%	13.8%	0.88×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	2.8%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	24.5%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
No goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	17.7%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	27.0%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
No goals in 2nd half	13.2%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap not to win both halves	92.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Vitesse not to win both halves	85.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Vitesse to win both halves	14.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
De Graafschap to win both halves	7.7%	5.9%	—	—	17.04

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win either half	61.9%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
De Graafschap to win neither half	51.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
De Graafschap to win either half	48.2%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Vitesse to win neither half	38.1%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap not to win to nil	88.1%	88.1%	86.0%	1.02×	1.14
Vitesse not to win to nil	81.5%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Vitesse to win to nil	18.5%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.91
De Graafschap to win to nil	11.9%	11.9%	14.0%	0.85×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.4%	24.1%	22.1%	1.09×	4.15
Vitesse by 1	20.9%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.15
De Graafschap by 1	16.9%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Vitesse by 2	14.0%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Vitesse by 3+	11.9%	11.7%	11.8%	1.00×	8.51
De Graafschap by 2	9.2%	7.2%	8.8%	0.81×	13.90
De Graafschap by 3+	5.7%	7.2%	6.8%	1.06×	13.91