Vitesse v Jong AZ — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 20 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Vitesse

19:00 UTC

Jong AZ

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 656h before kick-off

Vitesse win

51.2%

model 53.2%

Draw

22.1%

model 20.8%

Jong AZ win

26.7%

model 26.1%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.4%
1-1 8.9%
1-0 7.0%
2-0 6.8%
2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	66.4%	Under 2.5	33.6%
BTTS yes	64.7%	BTTS no	35.3%
Vitesse 1+	87.0%	Vitesse 2+	60.5%
Jong AZ 1+	74.8%	Jong AZ 2+	40.0%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

59/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Vitesse or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 67%

72.7% fair odds 1.38

moderate signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Vitesse carry the stronger rating, 1528 Elo against 1380.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vitesse have an estimated 51.2% win probability, against 26.7% for Jong AZ and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.04 for Vitesse and 1.38 for Jong AZ.

Why Vitesse

Vitesse carry the stronger rating, 1528 Elo against 1380.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Jong AZ can win

Nothing in the data singles out Jong AZ.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vitesse, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Jong AZ, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vitesse: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Jong AZ: 49% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vitesse's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Vitesse are the model's most likely outcome at 51.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.4%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	532126	2.04–1.38	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	512128	1.98–1.43	2-1 9%	66%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win	50.8%	51.4%	44.5%	1.16×	1.94
Jong AZ to win	28.1%	27.9%	33.5%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	21.2%	24.5%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse & both teams score	29.8%	25.2%	22.0%	1.15×	3.97
Vitesse & not both score	21.0%	21.8%	22.6%	0.96×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.2%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Jong AZ & both teams score	17.3%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.57
Jong AZ & not both score	10.8%	13.3%	14.0%	0.95×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.0%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse & over 1.5	43.9%	40.3%	37.0%	1.09×	2.48
Vitesse & over 2.5	37.4%	34.9%	30.8%	1.13×	2.87
Vitesse & under 3.5	26.9%	26.1%	25.7%	1.01×	3.84
Vitesse & over 3.5	23.8%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.63
Jong AZ & over 1.5	23.0%	21.6%	27.4%	0.79×	4.63
Jong AZ & over 2.5	19.7%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.2%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Jong AZ & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Vitesse & under 2.5	13.4%	12.8%	13.8%	0.93×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Jong AZ & over 3.5	11.4%	12.8%	13.9%	0.92×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Jong AZ & under 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Vitesse & under 1.5	6.9%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
Jong AZ & under 1.5	5.0%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.0%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (1UP)	67.7%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Jong AZ (1UP)	48.9%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2UP)	50.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Jong AZ (2UP)	28.1%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win 2nd half	41.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Jong AZ to win 2nd half	27.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.7%	—	—	4.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Vitesse over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.6%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Vitesse under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Vitesse over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (+2.5)	86.2%	88.5%	88.2%	1.00×	1.13
Vitesse (+0.5)	71.9%	73.6%	66.5%	1.11×	1.36
Jong AZ (+1.5)	70.9%	73.6%	75.6%	0.97×	1.36
Vitesse (-0.5)	50.8%	52.4%	44.5%	1.18×	1.91
Jong AZ (+0.5)	49.2%	47.6%	55.5%	0.86×	2.10
Vitesse (-1.5)	29.1%	26.4%	24.4%	1.08×	3.79
Jong AZ (-0.5)	28.1%	26.4%	33.5%	0.79×	3.79
Vitesse (-2.5)	13.8%	11.5%	11.8%	0.98×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede	86.2%	86.2%	81.3%	1.06×	1.16
Jong AZ clean sheet	13.8%	13.8%	18.7%	0.74×	7.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 1st half	57.3%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ clean sheet in 1st half	42.7%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to concede in 2nd half	67.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Jong AZ clean sheet in 2nd half	32.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 6.5 corners	83.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Jong AZ over 2.5 corners	75.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Jong AZ under 5.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Jong AZ under 4.5 corners	58.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ over 3.5 corners	58.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Jong AZ under 3.5 corners	41.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Jong AZ over 4.5 corners	41.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Jong AZ over 5.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Jong AZ under 2.5 corners	24.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Jong AZ over 6.5 corners	16.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.4%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Jong AZ under 2.5 goals	82.7%	81.5%	81.5%	1.00×	1.23
Jong AZ over 0.5 goals	76.0%	76.2%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
Jong AZ under 1.5 goals	58.3%	59.4%	58.0%	1.03×	1.68
Jong AZ over 1.5 goals	41.7%	40.6%	42.0%	0.97×	2.47
Jong AZ under 0.5 goals	24.0%	23.8%	27.3%	0.87×	4.21
Jong AZ over 2.5 goals	17.3%	18.5%	18.6%	1.00×	5.40
Jong AZ over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.6%	7.0%	1.09×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ under 1.5 in 1st half	88.8%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Jong AZ under 0.5 in 1st half	56.5%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Jong AZ over 0.5 in 1st half	43.5%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Jong AZ over 1.5 in 1st half	11.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.50

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ scores more in 2nd half	39.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.66
Jong AZ scores equally in both	37.2%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Jong AZ scores more in 1st half	22.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (away no bet)	70.6%	68.3%	66.8%	1.02×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.4%	31.7%	33.2%	0.95×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ even goals	52.9%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Jong AZ odd goals	47.1%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.5%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Vitesse to score 2+ in a row	48.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Jong AZ to score 2+ in a row	29.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Vitesse to score 3+ in a row	20.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Jong AZ to score 3+ in a row	8.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.97

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse corners (+3.5)	92.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Vitesse corners (+2.5)	87.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vitesse corners (+1.5)	80.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Jong AZ corners (+3.5)	69.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Jong AZ corners (+2.5)	59.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Vitesse corners (-1.5)	51.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Jong AZ corners (+1.5)	48.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Vitesse corners (-2.5)	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vitesse corners (-3.5)	30.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Jong AZ corners (-1.5)	19.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Jong AZ corners (-2.5)	12.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Jong AZ corners (-3.5)	7.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	64.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	35.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	25.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
1-0	6.9%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-0	6.5%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
Any other score	6.5%	7.4%	4.7%	1.59×	13.51
0-1	5.0%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
3-1	6.1%	7.4%	4.9%	1.51×	13.51
0-0	3.0%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
3-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.32
4-0	2.1%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
4-1	3.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2nd half DNB)	60.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Jong AZ (2nd half DNB)	39.8%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse leading at HT (DNB)	63.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Jong AZ leading at HT (DNB)	36.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or Jong AZ (12)	78.8%	75.5%	77.9%	0.97×	1.32
Vitesse or draw (1X)	71.9%	72.1%	66.5%	1.08×	1.39
Jong AZ or draw (X2)	49.2%	48.6%	55.5%	0.87×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw at HT	77.0%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Vitesse or Jong AZ at HT	62.8%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Jong AZ or draw at HT	60.3%	60.9%	—	—	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw (1UP)	71.9%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Jong AZ or draw (1UP)	49.2%	53.5%	—	—	1.87

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse or draw in 2nd half	72.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Vitesse or Jong AZ in 2nd half	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Jong AZ or draw in 2nd half	58.1%	58.2%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.7%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	43.3%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (DNB)	64.4%	62.7%	57.0%	1.10×	1.59
Jong AZ (DNB)	35.6%	37.3%	43.0%	0.87×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score first	56.4%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Jong AZ to score first	40.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	3.0%	4.3%	—	—	23.21

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.2%	58.4%	58.8%	0.99×	1.71
Not both teams to score	34.8%	41.6%	41.2%	1.01×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	56.1%	47.5%	49.5%	0.96×	2.11
Not both score & under 2.5	24.8%	27.9%	28.3%	0.99×	3.59
Not both score & over 2.5	10.0%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	75.4%	79.7%	79.0%	1.01×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	24.6%	20.3%	21.0%	0.97×	4.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	61.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	38.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	46.0%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	29.1%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Both score 1st half only	15.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Both score in both halves	9.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.1%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.9%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.3%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
A half without a goal	34.7%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.8%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
4-6 goals	38.5%	35.1%	37.6%	0.93×	2.85
0-1 goals	14.9%	17.0%	18.4%	0.92×	5.88
7+ goals	5.8%	7.6%	3.2%	2.37×	13.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ to score exactly 1	34.3%	33.8%	30.8%	1.10×	2.96
Jong AZ to score exactly 2	24.4%	22.3%	23.6%	0.95×	4.49
Jong AZ to score exactly 0	24.0%	22.3%	27.3%	0.82×	4.49
Jong AZ to score 3+	17.3%	19.6%	18.6%	1.05×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score 3+	31.8%	32.6%	25.6%	1.27×	3.07
Vitesse to score exactly 1	27.3%	26.5%	30.2%	0.88×	3.77
Vitesse to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
Vitesse to score exactly 0	13.8%	14.3%	18.7%	0.77×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse leading at HT	39.7%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Draw at HT	37.2%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Jong AZ leading at HT	23.0%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse -1: 2	49.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Vitesse -1: 1	29.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Vitesse -1: X	21.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:1)	49.2%	46.2%	55.5%	0.83×	2.16
Vitesse (0:1)	29.1%	27.0%	24.4%	1.11×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.7%	24.2%	20.1%	1.20×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:2)	70.9%	75.6%	75.6%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.2%	15.2%	12.8%	1.19×	6.56
Vitesse (0:2)	13.8%	11.0%	11.8%	0.93×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:3)	86.2%	90.6%	88.2%	1.03×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.3%	5.8%	5.7%	1.03×	17.21
Vitesse (0:3)	5.5%	5.8%	6.3%	0.92×	17.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (0:4)	94.5%	94.6%	93.7%	1.01×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.76
Vitesse (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.96

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (1:0)	71.9%	72.4%	66.5%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.7%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.85
Jong AZ (1:0)	12.3%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse (2:0)	87.7%	88.5%	84.5%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.9%	6.4%	8.8%	0.72×	15.66
Jong AZ (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	6.8%	0.34×	43.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.9%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	21.3%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede	76.0%	76.0%	72.7%	1.05×	1.32
Vitesse clean sheet	24.0%	24.0%	27.3%	0.88×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse clean sheet in 1st half	56.5%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Vitesse to concede in 1st half	43.5%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to concede in 2nd half	57.5%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Vitesse clean sheet in 2nd half	42.5%	45.4%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse over 2.5 corners	89.5%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Vitesse over 3.5 corners	79.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Vitesse over 4.5 corners	65.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vitesse under 6.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Vitesse over 5.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Vitesse under 5.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Vitesse over 6.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Vitesse under 4.5 corners	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Vitesse under 3.5 corners	21.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Vitesse under 2.5 corners	10.5%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse over 0.5 goals	86.2%	87.2%	81.3%	1.07×	1.15
Vitesse under 3.5 goals	86.1%	87.2%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
Vitesse under 2.5 goals	68.2%	68.0%	74.4%	0.91×	1.47
Vitesse over 1.5 goals	58.8%	58.6%	51.2%	1.14×	1.71
Vitesse under 1.5 goals	41.2%	41.4%	48.8%	0.85×	2.42
Vitesse over 2.5 goals	31.8%	32.0%	25.6%	1.25×	3.12
Vitesse under 0.5 goals	13.8%	12.8%	18.7%	0.68×	7.84
Vitesse over 3.5 goals	13.9%	12.8%	10.1%	1.27×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse under 1.5 in 1st half	79.0%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Vitesse over 0.5 in 1st half	57.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Vitesse under 0.5 in 1st half	42.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Vitesse over 1.5 in 1st half	21.0%	22.8%	—	—	4.38

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse scores more in 2nd half	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Vitesse scores equally in both	30.6%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
Vitesse scores more in 1st half	27.4%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ (home no bet)	57.0%	56.4%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	43.0%	43.6%	39.7%	1.10×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse even goals	51.0%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Vitesse odd goals	49.0%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	20.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	13.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	8.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	7.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-1	5.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.88
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
HT 1-2	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	41.99
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.11

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse at HT / Vitesse at FT	31.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Draw at HT / Vitesse at FT	15.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Jong AZ at HT / Jong AZ at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.9%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Jong AZ at FT	10.5%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Vitesse at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Jong AZ at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Jong AZ at HT / Vitesse at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Vitesse at HT / Jong AZ at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to score last	56.3%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Jong AZ to score last	40.7%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	3.0%	4.3%	—	—	23.21

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.0%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Vitesse to lead by 1 at any time	67.7%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Jong AZ to lead by 1 at any time	48.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Vitesse to lead by 2 at any time	37.6%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Jong AZ to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Vitesse to lead by 3 at any time	17.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Jong AZ to lead by 3 at any time	6.5%	6.7%	—	—	15.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse most corners	62.1%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Jong AZ most corners	27.8%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.0%	83.4%	86.4%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.3%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.3%	72.7%	0.99×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.3%	72.3%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
3-6 goals	60.3%	63.3%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.4%	59.1%	60.4%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.1%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
1-3 goals	52.7%	53.2%	54.7%	0.97×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.8%	43.6%	41.0%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
4-6 goals	38.5%	39.2%	37.6%	1.04×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.3%	35.2%	31.8%	1.11×	2.84
1-2 goals	30.8%	35.2%	32.9%	1.07×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.9%	18.8%	18.2%	1.04×	5.31
7+ goals	5.8%	8.9%	3.2%	2.78×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse never behind	48.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Jong AZ never behind	29.3%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.0%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.0%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.1%	87.6%	81.6%	1.07×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	78.7%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	66.2%	66.3%	62.4%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	55.7%	58.6%	59.3%	0.99×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	44.3%	41.4%	40.7%	1.02×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	33.8%	33.7%	37.6%	0.90×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	21.3%	1.29×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	14.9%	12.4%	18.4%	0.67×	8.05
Over 5.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.0%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.7%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.1%	86.7%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.6%	81.1%	77.2%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.4%	67.5%	73.6%	0.92×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.7%	55.8%	52.0%	1.07×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.3%	44.2%	48.0%	0.92×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.6%	32.5%	26.4%	1.23×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.4%	18.9%	22.8%	0.83×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.9%	13.3%	10.2%	1.30×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.3%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.8%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.2%	14.2%	—	—	7.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.1%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.9%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.1%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.9%	31.3%	—	—	3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to score in both halves	75.0%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Vitesse not to score in both halves	61.2%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Vitesse to score in both halves	38.8%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Jong AZ to score in both halves	25.0%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	65.2%	59.8%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Only Vitesse scores	21.0%	22.3%	22.6%	0.98×	4.49
Only Jong AZ scores	10.8%	11.0%	14.0%	0.79×	9.07
Neither team scores	3.0%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	18.9%	17.5%	19.3%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.6%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.0%	12.1%	9.0%	1.35×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.9%	12.1%	13.8%	0.88×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.0%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.4%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	24.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
No goals in 1st half	24.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	17.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.9%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	27.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
No goals in 2nd half	13.6%	14.4%	—	—	6.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to win both halves	93.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Vitesse not to win both halves	83.4%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Vitesse to win both halves	16.6%	16.1%	—	—	6.19
Jong AZ to win both halves	6.3%	5.8%	—	—	17.14

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse to win either half	65.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Jong AZ to win neither half	55.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Jong AZ to win either half	44.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
Vitesse to win neither half	34.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Jong AZ not to win to nil	89.2%	88.1%	86.0%	1.02×	1.14
Vitesse not to win to nil	79.0%	78.1%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Vitesse to win to nil	21.0%	21.9%	22.6%	0.97×	4.57
Jong AZ to win to nil	10.8%	11.9%	14.0%	0.85×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitesse by 1	21.7%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.15
Draw	21.2%	24.1%	22.1%	1.09×	4.15
Jong AZ by 1	15.7%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Vitesse by 2	15.2%	17.0%	12.8%	1.33×	5.87
Vitesse by 3+	13.8%	11.8%	11.8%	1.00×	8.51
Jong AZ by 2	7.9%	7.2%	8.8%	0.81×	13.90
Jong AZ by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.79