Vitória de Guimaraes v Maritimo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 October 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627
Primeira Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.3%
- 1-0 11.8%
- 0-1 9.6%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 2-0 7.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 45.5% | Under 2.5 | 54.5% |
| BTTS yes | 49.9% | BTTS no | 50.1% |
| Vitória de Guimaraes 1+ | 74.9% | Vitória de Guimaraes 2+ | 40.2% |
| Maritimo 1+ | 67.2% | Maritimo 2+ | 30.6% |
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.12. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Vitória de Guimaraes.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Maritimo have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Vitória de Guimaraes have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 30.7% for Maritimo and 25.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Vitória de Guimaraes and 1.11 for Maritimo.
Why Vitória de Guimaraes
Nothing in the data singles out Vitória de Guimaraes.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.9%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Maritimo can win
Maritimo carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1439.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Vitória de Guimaraes, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Maritimo, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Vitória de Guimaraes: 52% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 6.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Maritimo: 43% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Vitória de Guimaraes are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 72/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Live TV
No channel's listings name this match. That is the guide being silent rather than the match being off — most listings say "Live: Premier League" or the name of a studio show, not who is playing. Open the 333 sports channels →
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.38–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.33–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 46% | 51% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.