Vitória v Santos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Vitória

20:00 UTC

Santos

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 825h before kick-off

Vitória win

31.2%

model 32.5%

Draw

29.0%

model 29.1%

Santos win

39.9%

model 38.4%

312940

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.9%
0-1 9.5%
0-0 9.2%
1-0 8.4%
1-2 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.3%	Under 2.5	53.7%
BTTS yes	52.5%	BTTS no	47.5%
Vitória 1+	69.9%	Vitória 2+	33.7%
Santos 1+	73.4%	Santos 2+	38.2%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.33. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

76/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Santos (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 33%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 332 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vitória not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 72%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Santos carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1477.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Santos have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Vitória and 29.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for Vitória and 1.32 for Santos.

Why Vitória

Nothing in the data singles out Vitória.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.20 to 1.32. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Santos can win

Santos carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1477.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vitória, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Santos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vitória: 43% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Santos: 54% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Santos are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	322938	1.20–1.33	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	343135	1.12–1.13	1-1 15%	39%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to win	34.7%	30.4%	24.0%	1.27×	3.29
Vitória to win	34.1%	30.4%	48.9%	0.62×	3.29
Draw	31.2%	30.4%	27.3%	1.11×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos & not both score	20.9%	21.8%	13.8%	1.58×	4.59
Vitória & not both score	20.5%	21.8%	28.1%	0.78×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.56
Vitória & both teams score	13.6%	13.3%	21.0%	0.63×	7.54
Santos & both teams score	13.8%	13.3%	10.3%	1.29×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.8%	13.3%	6.7%	1.99×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos & under 3.5	27.6%	26.1%	18.6%	1.40×	3.84
Vitória & under 3.5	27.1%	26.1%	36.8%	0.71×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	26.3%	26.1%	20.2%	1.29×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.3%	26.1%	20.2%	1.29×	3.84
Santos & over 1.5	24.0%	21.6%	17.1%	1.26×	4.63
Vitória & over 1.5	23.5%	21.6%	36.7%	0.59×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Santos & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	11.0%	1.64×	5.56
Vitória & over 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	27.5%	0.66×	5.56
Vitória & under 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Santos & over 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	13.2%	1.37×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	11.8%	12.8%	6.7%	1.93×	7.79
Vitória & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	12.4%	1.04×	7.79
Santos & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	7.0%	1.84×	7.79
Vitória & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.63
Santos & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.6%	1.43×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.9%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.9%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (1UP)	49.8%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Vitória (1UP)	49.2%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (2UP)	34.7%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Vitória (2UP)	34.1%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.6%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Santos to win 2nd half	31.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Vitória to win 2nd half	28.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.2%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Santos under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Santos over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Santos over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.8%	13.3%	—	—	7.51

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Vitória under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.9%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Vitória over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.1%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Vitória over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	11.5%	—	—	8.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (+2.5)	95.6%	96.3%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Santos (+1.5)	85.7%	88.5%	76.8%	1.15×	1.13
Santos (+0.5)	65.9%	68.7%	51.1%	1.34×	1.46
Vitória (+0.5)	65.3%	68.7%	76.0%	0.90×	1.46
Santos (-0.5)	34.7%	31.3%	24.0%	1.31×	3.19
Vitória (-0.5)	34.1%	31.3%	48.9%	0.64×	3.19
Vitória (-1.5)	14.3%	11.5%	23.2%	0.50×	8.66
Vitória (-2.5)	4.4%	3.7%	9.2%	0.40×	27.03

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to concede	67.3%	72.3%	79.7%	0.91×	1.38
Santos clean sheet	32.7%	27.7%	20.3%	1.36×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos clean sheet in 1st half	61.8%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Santos to concede in 1st half	38.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos clean sheet in 2nd half	52.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Santos to concede in 2nd half	47.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 6.5 corners	77.3%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Santos over 2.5 corners	75.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Santos under 5.5 corners	66.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Santos over 3.5 corners	60.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Santos under 4.5 corners	54.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Santos over 4.5 corners	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Santos under 3.5 corners	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Santos over 5.5 corners	33.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Santos under 2.5 corners	24.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Santos over 6.5 corners	22.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 3.5 goals	97.2%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Santos under 2.5 goals	89.4%	87.8%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Santos under 1.5 goals	68.8%	68.0%	71.9%	0.95×	1.47
Santos over 0.5 goals	67.7%	68.0%	65.4%	1.04×	1.47
Santos under 0.5 goals	32.3%	32.0%	34.6%	0.92×	3.13
Santos over 1.5 goals	31.2%	32.0%	28.1%	1.14×	3.13
Santos over 2.5 goals	10.6%	12.2%	9.2%	1.32×	8.21
Santos over 3.5 goals	2.8%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos under 1.5 in 1st half	92.4%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Santos under 0.5 in 1st half	63.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Santos over 0.5 in 1st half	36.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Santos over 1.5 in 1st half	7.6%	6.2%	—	—	16.12

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos scores equally in both	43.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Santos scores more in 2nd half	35.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Santos scores more in 1st half	21.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (away no bet)	52.2%	51.7%	64.2%	0.81×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	47.8%	48.3%	35.8%	1.35×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos even goals	55.2%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Santos odd goals	44.8%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.9%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.1%	8.1%	—	—	12.30

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	53.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Both halves under 1.5 goals	46.6%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	45.6%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Santos to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Vitória to score 2+ in a row	24.5%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Santos to score 3+ in a row	6.9%	5.5%	—	—	18.12
Vitória to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória corners (+3.5)	85.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vitória corners (+2.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Santos corners (+3.5)	75.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vitória corners (+1.5)	71.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Santos corners (+2.5)	67.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Santos corners (+1.5)	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vitória corners (-1.5)	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vitória corners (-2.5)	32.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Santos corners (-1.5)	28.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Vitória corners (-3.5)	24.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Santos corners (-2.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Santos corners (-3.5)	14.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	70.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	61.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	39.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	26.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.6%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.71
0-0	11.8%	11.5%	6.7%	1.72×	8.72
0-1	10.7%	11.5%	7.0%	1.64×	8.72
1-0	10.6%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.72
0-2	6.7%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.51
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
2-0	6.6%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.30
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.31
2-2	4.2%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.31
3-1	2.8%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (2nd half DNB)	52.1%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Vitória (2nd half DNB)	47.9%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória leading at HT (DNB)	51.9%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Santos leading at HT (DNB)	48.1%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória or Santos (12)	68.8%	69.6%	72.7%	0.96×	1.44
Santos or draw (X2)	65.9%	69.6%	51.1%	1.36×	1.44
Vitória or draw (1X)	65.3%	69.6%	76.0%	0.92×	1.44

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória or draw at HT	75.4%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Santos or draw at HT	73.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vitória or Santos at HT	51.2%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos or draw (1UP)	65.9%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Vitória or draw (1UP)	65.3%	76.2%	—	—	1.31

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos or draw in 2nd half	71.6%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Vitória or draw in 2nd half	69.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Vitória or Santos in 2nd half	59.4%	58.3%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.3%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	31.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (DNB)	50.5%	50.9%	32.9%	1.55×	1.97
Vitória (DNB)	49.5%	49.2%	67.1%	0.73×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to score first	44.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
Vitória to score first	43.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	11.8%	9.7%	—	—	10.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.2%	51.3%	48.3%	1.06×	1.95
Both teams to score	46.8%	48.7%	51.7%	0.94×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	46.4%	44.3%	38.9%	1.14×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	32.2%	34.5%	38.3%	0.90×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	14.6%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	6.8%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.4%	89.0%	87.1%	1.02×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.6%	11.0%	12.9%	0.86×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.5%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Both score 2nd half only	20.4%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	10.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	3.2%	4.9%	—	—	20.45

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.9%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.1%	14.7%	—	—	6.80

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	55.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
A goal in each half	45.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.9%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	33.1%	30.7%	25.7%	1.20×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.2%	20.2%	24.3%	0.83×	4.95
7+ goals	0.8%	1.8%	0.6%	2.89×	54.45

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Santos to score exactly 0	32.3%	33.8%	34.6%	0.98×	2.96
Santos to score exactly 2	20.6%	22.3%	19.0%	1.17×	4.49
Santos to score 3+	10.6%	12.9%	9.2%	1.40×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.6%	34.3%	1.04×	2.81
Vitória to score exactly 0	32.7%	32.6%	20.3%	1.60×	3.07
Vitória to score exactly 2	20.4%	23.3%	27.1%	0.86×	4.29
Vitória to score 3+	10.3%	14.3%	18.6%	0.77×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.8%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Vitória leading at HT	26.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Santos leading at HT	24.6%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos -1: 1	65.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Santos -1: X	20.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Santos -1: 2	14.7%	14.0%	—	—	7.13

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (0:1)	65.9%	65.2%	51.1%	1.28×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	17.8%	25.9%	0.69×	5.60
Vitória (0:1)	14.3%	13.7%	23.2%	0.59×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (0:2)	85.7%	87.1%	76.8%	1.13×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.9%	7.7%	14.1%	0.54×	13.02
Vitória (0:2)	4.4%	3.8%	9.2%	0.41×	26.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (0:3)	95.6%	96.6%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.08
Vitória (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	82.07
Vitória (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (1:0)	65.3%	70.1%	76.0%	0.92×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	20.0%	21.7%	14.6%	1.48×	4.62
Santos (1:0)	14.7%	12.7%	9.5%	1.34×	7.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (2:0)	85.3%	88.5%	90.5%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	10.1%	10.3%	6.2%	1.66×	9.75
Santos (2:0)	4.6%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.4%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Halves equal	29.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to concede	67.7%	66.7%	65.4%	1.02×	1.50
Vitória clean sheet	32.3%	33.3%	34.6%	0.96×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória clean sheet in 1st half	63.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Vitória to concede in 1st half	36.4%	36.7%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória clean sheet in 2nd half	50.7%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Vitória to concede in 2nd half	49.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória over 2.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Vitória over 3.5 corners	69.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vitória under 6.5 corners	67.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vitória under 5.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vitória over 4.5 corners	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vitória under 4.5 corners	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vitória over 5.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vitória over 6.5 corners	32.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Vitória under 3.5 corners	30.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Vitória under 2.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 3.5 goals	97.3%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Vitória under 2.5 goals	89.7%	87.3%	81.4%	1.07×	1.15
Vitória under 1.5 goals	69.2%	68.0%	54.4%	1.25×	1.47
Vitória over 0.5 goals	67.3%	67.9%	79.7%	0.85×	1.47
Vitória under 0.5 goals	32.7%	32.1%	20.3%	1.58×	3.12
Vitória over 1.5 goals	30.8%	32.0%	45.6%	0.70×	3.12
Vitória over 2.5 goals	10.3%	12.7%	18.6%	0.69×	7.86
Vitória over 3.5 goals	2.7%	3.6%	5.7%	0.64×	27.55

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 1.5 in 1st half	91.6%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Vitória under 0.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Vitória over 0.5 in 1st half	38.2%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Vitória over 1.5 in 1st half	8.4%	5.3%	—	—	18.85

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória scores equally in both	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Vitória scores more in 2nd half	33.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Vitória scores more in 1st half	23.2%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos (home no bet)	52.7%	51.4%	46.7%	1.10×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.3%	48.6%	53.3%	0.91×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória even goals	55.3%	55.2%	51.6%	1.07×	1.81
Vitória odd goals	44.7%	44.8%	48.4%	0.92×	2.23

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	39.5%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
HT 1-0	18.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 0-1	17.6%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	8.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 2-0	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	41.91
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
Any other HT score	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Vitória at HT / Vitória at FT	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Santos at HT / Santos at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Santos at FT	14.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Vitória at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Vitória at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Santos at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Vitória at HT / Santos at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Santos at HT / Vitória at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos to score last	44.4%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
Vitória to score last	43.9%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	11.8%	9.1%	—	—	10.94

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.2%	91.4%	—	—	1.09
Santos to lead by 1 at any time	49.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Vitória to lead by 1 at any time	49.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.0%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Santos to lead by 2 at any time	19.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Vitória to lead by 2 at any time	18.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Santos to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	—	—	15.03
Vitória to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória most corners	52.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Santos most corners	37.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.4%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.2%	68.8%	68.7%	1.00×	1.45
2-6 goals	66.1%	68.8%	73.8%	0.93×	1.45
2-5 goals	64.2%	63.3%	69.7%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.1%	59.1%	62.7%	0.94×	1.69
1-2 goals	49.2%	48.5%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.9%	48.5%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.2%	39.2%	47.1%	0.83×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.3%	39.2%	43.0%	0.91×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.3%	35.2%	36.0%	0.98×	2.84
4-6 goals	18.2%	18.8%	24.3%	0.78×	5.31
4-5 goals	16.3%	18.8%	20.2%	0.93×	5.31
5-6 goals	7.0%	8.9%	11.3%	0.79×	11.27
7+ goals	0.8%	2.6%	0.6%	4.02×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos never behind	39.0%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Vitória never behind	38.4%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.0%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.0%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.2%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.8%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.3%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	81.0%	82.3%	75.2%	1.09×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	66.9%	66.3%	74.3%	0.89×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	61.0%	61.7%	52.4%	1.18×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	39.0%	38.3%	47.6%	0.80×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	33.1%	33.7%	25.7%	1.31×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	19.0%	17.7%	24.8%	0.71×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	11.7%	0.66×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	2.7%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.2%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.1%	97.2%	94.9%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.2%	92.4%	86.5%	1.07×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	76.2%	75.9%	67.9%	1.12×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.1%	51.9%	64.9%	0.80×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	45.9%	48.1%	35.1%	1.37×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	23.8%	24.1%	32.1%	0.75×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	8.8%	7.6%	13.5%	0.56×	13.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.9%	2.8%	5.1%	0.55×	35.59
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.2%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.8%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	60.5%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	39.5%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.8%	7.3%	—	—	13.71

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.8%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.7%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.3%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.2%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	14.6%	—	—	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santos not to score in both halves	82.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Vitória not to score in both halves	82.0%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Vitória to score in both halves	18.0%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Santos to score in both halves	17.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.8%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Only Santos scores	20.9%	22.3%	13.8%	1.61×	4.49
Only Vitória scores	20.5%	22.3%	28.1%	0.79×	4.49
Neither team scores	11.8%	11.0%	6.7%	1.65×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.9%	24.9%	26.8%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	21.3%	22.6%	19.2%	1.18×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	20.0%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 0 goals	11.8%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	11.2%	12.1%	13.2%	0.92×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.1%	7.6%	7.1%	1.06×	13.15
6 or more goals	2.7%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	39.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	17.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
3+ goals in 1st half	6.8%	7.3%	—	—	13.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.3%	40.4%	—	—	2.47
1 goal in 2nd half	34.5%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	27.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória not to win both halves	92.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Santos not to win both halves	92.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Santos to win both halves	7.8%	5.9%	—	—	17.03
Vitória to win both halves	7.7%	5.9%	—	—	17.04

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to win neither half	52.7%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Santos to win neither half	52.2%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Santos to win either half	47.8%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Vitória to win either half	47.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória not to win to nil	79.5%	78.1%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Santos not to win to nil	79.1%	78.1%	86.2%	0.91×	1.28
Santos to win to nil	20.9%	21.9%	13.8%	1.58×	4.57
Vitória to win to nil	20.5%	21.9%	28.1%	0.78×	4.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	31.2%	27.7%	27.3%	1.01×	3.61
Santos by 1	20.0%	24.1%	14.6%	1.65×	4.15
Vitória by 1	19.8%	17.1%	25.9%	0.66×	5.86
Santos by 2	10.1%	11.7%	6.2%	1.90×	8.51
Vitória by 2	9.9%	7.2%	14.1%	0.51×	13.89
Vitória by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	9.2%	0.30×	36.79
Santos by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.79