VVV-Venlo v TOP Oss — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

VVV-Venlo

3–1

18:00 UTC

TOP Oss

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 6h before kick-off

VVV-Venlo win

46.5%

model 45.5%

Draw

22.9%

model 23.8%

TOP Oss win

30.6%

model 30.7%

472331

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,541 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-0 9.5%
2-1 9.2%
0-1 7.6%
1-2 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.7%	Under 2.5	45.3%
BTTS yes	57.0%	BTTS no	43.0%
VVV-Venlo 1+	79.8%	VVV-Venlo 2+	47.5%
TOP Oss 1+	71.9%	TOP Oss 2+	36.2%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 48%

58.2% fair odds 1.72

strong signal · 7654 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

TOP Oss under 1.5 in 2nd half

2nd half away goals O/U

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 709 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

VVV-Venlo carry the stronger rating, 1445 Elo against 1392.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

VVV-Venlo have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 30.6% for TOP Oss and 22.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for VVV-Venlo and 1.27 for TOP Oss.

Why VVV-Venlo

VVV-Venlo carry the stronger rating, 1445 Elo against 1392. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why TOP Oss can win

Nothing in the data singles out TOP Oss.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for VVV-Venlo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for TOP Oss, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

VVV-Venlo: 44% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 20.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. TOP Oss: 38% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

VVV-Venlo are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	452431	1.60–1.27	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	512227	1.76–1.20	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	462528	1.47–1.08	1-1 12%	47%	50%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	472529	1.46–1.08	1-0 12%	47%	50%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to win	46.3%	47.6%	44.4%	1.07×	2.10
TOP Oss to win	28.4%	27.7%	33.4%	0.83×	3.61
Draw	25.3%	27.7%	22.3%	1.24×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo & not both score	26.4%	25.5%	22.8%	1.11×	3.93
VVV-Venlo & both teams score	19.9%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.55
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.55
TOP Oss & not both score	15.7%	18.0%	13.9%	1.30×	5.55
TOP Oss & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	19.6%	0.68×	7.55
Draw & not both score	7.4%	8.4%	4.8%	1.73×	11.97

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo & over 1.5	34.5%	31.1%	36.8%	0.84×	3.22
VVV-Venlo & under 3.5	33.5%	31.1%	25.8%	1.20×	3.22
VVV-Venlo & over 2.5	26.1%	25.9%	30.6%	0.85×	3.86
TOP Oss & under 3.5	21.8%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
VVV-Venlo & under 2.5	20.3%	21.6%	13.9%	1.56×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.57
Draw & under 3.5	19.4%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.57
TOP Oss & over 1.5	19.5%	18.0%	27.2%	0.66×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.57
TOP Oss & over 2.5	14.9%	12.9%	23.6%	0.55×	7.78
TOP Oss & under 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	9.9%	1.30×	7.78
VVV-Venlo & over 3.5	12.9%	12.9%	18.7%	0.69×	7.78
VVV-Venlo & under 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	7.7%	1.67×	7.78
TOP Oss & under 1.5	8.9%	8.0%	6.3%	1.26×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	7.4%	8.0%	4.8%	1.64×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	8.0%	8.2%	0.97×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	8.0%	8.2%	0.97×	12.57
TOP Oss & over 3.5	6.5%	8.0%	13.8%	0.58×	12.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (1UP)	60.7%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
TOP Oss (1UP)	44.9%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (2UP)	46.3%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
TOP Oss (2UP)	28.4%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to win 2nd half	37.2%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
2nd half drawn	36.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
TOP Oss to win 2nd half	26.3%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.1%	86.6%	—	—	1.16
TOP Oss under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
TOP Oss over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
TOP Oss over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.9%	13.4%	—	—	7.47

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
VVV-Venlo over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.6%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
VVV-Venlo under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.4%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
VVV-Venlo over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (+2.5)	91.2%	92.1%	88.1%	1.05×	1.09
TOP Oss (+1.5)	77.4%	78.3%	75.6%	1.04×	1.28
VVV-Venlo (+0.5)	71.6%	73.7%	66.6%	1.11×	1.36
TOP Oss (+0.5)	53.7%	52.1%	55.6%	0.94×	1.92
VVV-Venlo (-0.5)	46.3%	47.9%	44.4%	1.08×	2.09
TOP Oss (-0.5)	28.4%	26.3%	33.4%	0.79×	3.80
VVV-Venlo (-1.5)	22.6%	21.7%	24.4%	0.89×	4.62
VVV-Venlo (-2.5)	8.8%	7.9%	11.9%	0.66×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to concede	76.9%	78.7%	81.4%	0.97×	1.27
TOP Oss clean sheet	23.1%	21.3%	18.6%	1.14×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to concede in 1st half	46.8%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
TOP Oss clean sheet in 1st half	53.2%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to concede in 2nd half	56.6%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
TOP Oss clean sheet in 2nd half	43.4%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss over 2.5 corners	84.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
TOP Oss under 6.5 corners	72.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
TOP Oss over 3.5 corners	71.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
TOP Oss under 5.5 corners	59.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
TOP Oss over 4.5 corners	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
TOP Oss under 4.5 corners	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
TOP Oss over 5.5 corners	40.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
TOP Oss under 3.5 corners	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
TOP Oss over 6.5 corners	28.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
TOP Oss under 2.5 corners	15.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss under 3.5 goals	97.6%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
TOP Oss under 2.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	81.5%	1.13×	1.09
TOP Oss under 1.5 goals	70.5%	71.9%	58.2%	1.23×	1.39
TOP Oss over 0.5 goals	66.1%	67.8%	72.5%	0.94×	1.47
TOP Oss under 0.5 goals	33.9%	32.2%	27.5%	1.17×	3.11
TOP Oss over 1.5 goals	29.5%	28.1%	41.8%	0.67×	3.55
TOP Oss over 2.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	18.5%	0.42×	12.80
TOP Oss over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss under 1.5 in 1st half	92.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
TOP Oss under 0.5 in 1st half	64.8%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
TOP Oss over 0.5 in 1st half	35.2%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
TOP Oss over 1.5 in 1st half	7.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss scores equally in both	44.1%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
TOP Oss scores more in 2nd half	35.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
TOP Oss scores more in 1st half	20.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (away no bet)	64.7%	62.0%	66.5%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.3%	38.0%	33.5%	1.13×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss even goals	55.7%	56.9%	57.1%	1.00×	1.76
TOP Oss odd goals	44.3%	43.1%	42.9%	1.01×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.4%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.6%	12.3%	—	—	8.13

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.7%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.3%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.4%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
VVV-Venlo to score 2+ in a row	35.6%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
TOP Oss to score 2+ in a row	22.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
VVV-Venlo to score 3+ in a row	12.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.23
TOP Oss to score 3+ in a row	5.5%	5.6%	—	—	17.89

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo corners (+3.5)	89.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
VVV-Venlo corners (+2.5)	84.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
VVV-Venlo corners (+1.5)	77.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
TOP Oss corners (+3.5)	69.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
TOP Oss corners (+2.5)	60.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
TOP Oss corners (+1.5)	50.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
VVV-Venlo corners (-1.5)	49.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
VVV-Venlo corners (-2.5)	40.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
VVV-Venlo corners (-3.5)	30.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
TOP Oss corners (-1.5)	22.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
TOP Oss corners (-2.5)	15.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
TOP Oss corners (-3.5)	10.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	50.6%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	21.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	85.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 8.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	69.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 10.5 corners	60.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 12.5 corners	58.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 11.5 corners	50.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 11.5 corners	49.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 12.5 corners	41.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	39.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	30.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Under 7.5 corners	14.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.9%	11.4%	7.7%	1.48×	8.80
1-1	12.0%	11.4%	9.6%	1.19×	8.80
0-1	8.9%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.53
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.53
0-0	7.4%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.53
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.53
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.53
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	57.66
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	57.67
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.68
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	57.67
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	57.68
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	57.65
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.67
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	57.68
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	57.66
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.66
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.67
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	57.68
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.68
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.67
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	57.67
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	57.67
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.68
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.97×	57.68
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.67

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (2nd half DNB)	58.6%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
TOP Oss (2nd half DNB)	41.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.54

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo leading at HT (DNB)	61.7%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
TOP Oss leading at HT (DNB)	38.3%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo or TOP Oss (12)	74.7%	72.3%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
VVV-Venlo or draw (1X)	71.6%	72.3%	66.6%	1.09×	1.38
TOP Oss or draw (X2)	53.7%	52.4%	55.6%	0.94×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo or draw at HT	78.7%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
TOP Oss or draw at HT	65.7%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
VVV-Venlo or TOP Oss at HT	55.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo or draw (1UP)	71.6%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
TOP Oss or draw (1UP)	53.7%	59.3%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo or draw in 2nd half	73.7%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
VVV-Venlo or TOP Oss in 2nd half	63.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
TOP Oss or draw in 2nd half	62.8%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.1%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	34.9%	30.8%	—	—	3.24

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (DNB)	62.0%	62.9%	57.1%	1.10×	1.59
TOP Oss (DNB)	38.0%	37.1%	42.9%	0.86×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to score first	53.3%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
TOP Oss to score first	39.3%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	7.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.5%	51.6%	58.7%	0.88×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.5%	48.4%	41.3%	1.17×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.1%	41.7%	28.4%	1.47×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	38.5%	38.6%	49.3%	0.78×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.3%	9.6%	1.28×	8.16
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.4%	13.0%	0.64×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.3%	85.5%	79.0%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.7%	14.5%	21.0%	0.69×	6.87

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.1%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.9%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.2%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	19.82

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	46.9%	41.1%	1.14×	2.13
0-1 goals	28.1%	27.0%	18.6%	1.45×	3.71
4-6 goals	23.7%	23.0%	37.3%	0.62×	4.34
7+ goals	1.6%	1.9%	3.2%	0.57×	54.05

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.8%	30.8%	1.16×	2.80
TOP Oss to score exactly 0	33.9%	33.7%	27.5%	1.22×	2.97
TOP Oss to score exactly 2	19.9%	19.5%	23.4%	0.83×	5.12
TOP Oss to score 3+	9.6%	8.8%	18.5%	0.47×	11.41

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to score exactly 1	33.8%	32.6%	30.4%	1.07×	3.06
VVV-Venlo to score exactly 2	24.8%	23.4%	25.8%	0.90×	4.28
VVV-Venlo to score exactly 0	23.1%	23.3%	18.6%	1.25×	4.28
VVV-Venlo to score 3+	18.3%	19.2%	25.4%	0.75×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
VVV-Venlo leading at HT	34.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
TOP Oss leading at HT	21.3%	20.0%	—	—	5.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo -1: 2	53.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
VVV-Venlo -1: X	23.7%	23.7%	—	—	4.23
VVV-Venlo -1: 1	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (0:1)	53.7%	51.3%	55.6%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	23.7%	24.4%	20.1%	1.21×	4.10
VVV-Venlo (0:1)	22.6%	24.4%	24.4%	1.00×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (0:2)	77.4%	79.6%	75.6%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.8%	10.8%	12.7%	0.86×	9.22
VVV-Venlo (0:2)	8.8%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	12.99

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (0:3)	91.2%	92.7%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.0%	5.9%	5.7%	1.03×	16.95
VVV-Venlo (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	6.3%	0.37×	42.34

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (0:4)	97.2%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.61
VVV-Venlo (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.75

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (1:0)	71.6%	72.6%	66.6%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.6%	17.1%	18.1%	0.94×	5.85
TOP Oss (1:0)	10.7%	12.7%	15.4%	0.83×	7.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo (2:0)	89.3%	88.3%	84.6%	1.04×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.6%	8.8%	0.74×	15.26
TOP Oss (2:0)	3.2%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	41.39

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.2%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to concede	66.1%	66.5%	72.5%	0.92×	1.50
VVV-Venlo clean sheet	33.9%	33.5%	27.5%	1.22×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo clean sheet in 1st half	64.8%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
VVV-Venlo to concede in 1st half	35.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo clean sheet in 2nd half	52.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
VVV-Venlo to concede in 2nd half	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo over 2.5 corners	92.9%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
VVV-Venlo over 3.5 corners	85.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
VVV-Venlo over 4.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
VVV-Venlo over 5.5 corners	61.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
VVV-Venlo under 6.5 corners	51.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
VVV-Venlo over 6.5 corners	48.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
VVV-Venlo under 5.5 corners	38.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
VVV-Venlo under 4.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
VVV-Venlo under 3.5 corners	15.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
VVV-Venlo under 2.5 corners	7.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.1%	89.8%	1.03×	1.09
VVV-Venlo under 2.5 goals	81.7%	81.9%	74.6%	1.10×	1.22
VVV-Venlo over 0.5 goals	76.9%	77.4%	81.4%	0.95×	1.29
VVV-Venlo under 1.5 goals	56.9%	58.6%	48.9%	1.20×	1.71
VVV-Venlo over 1.5 goals	43.1%	41.4%	51.1%	0.81×	2.41
VVV-Venlo under 0.5 goals	23.1%	22.6%	18.6%	1.21×	4.43
VVV-Venlo over 2.5 goals	18.3%	18.1%	25.4%	0.71×	5.54
VVV-Venlo over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.71

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo under 1.5 in 1st half	86.8%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
VVV-Venlo over 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
VVV-Venlo under 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
VVV-Venlo over 1.5 in 1st half	13.2%	10.3%	—	—	9.76

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo scores more in 2nd half	37.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
VVV-Venlo scores equally in both	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
VVV-Venlo scores more in 1st half	25.5%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (home no bet)	52.8%	51.5%	59.9%	0.86×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.2%	48.5%	40.1%	1.21×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo even goals	52.7%	50.4%	51.7%	0.97×	1.98
VVV-Venlo odd goals	47.3%	49.6%	48.3%	1.03×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
HT 1-0	21.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	15.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 2-0	6.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo at HT / VVV-Venlo at FT	27.3%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
Draw at HT / VVV-Venlo at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
TOP Oss at HT / TOP Oss at FT	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / TOP Oss at FT	11.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
VVV-Venlo at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
TOP Oss at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
TOP Oss at HT / VVV-Venlo at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
VVV-Venlo at HT / TOP Oss at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to score last	53.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
TOP Oss to score last	39.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	7.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
VVV-Venlo to lead by 1 at any time	60.7%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
TOP Oss to lead by 1 at any time	44.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
VVV-Venlo to lead by 2 at any time	28.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
TOP Oss to lead by 2 at any time	15.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
VVV-Venlo to lead by 3 at any time	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
TOP Oss to lead by 3 at any time	4.3%	1.7%	—	—	60.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo most corners	59.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
TOP Oss most corners	30.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	9.4%	8.4%	—	—	11.91

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.4%	86.2%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.0%	83.3%	74.1%	1.12×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.3%	72.3%	78.3%	0.92×	1.38
1-3 goals	67.3%	68.8%	54.8%	1.26×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.3%	68.8%	72.5%	0.95×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.3%	63.2%	60.3%	1.05×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	41.1%	1.18×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.7%	48.5%	33.1%	1.46×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.3%	48.5%	59.1%	0.82×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.3%	43.6%	53.2%	0.82×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.3%	39.3%	41.1%	0.96×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.7%	24.8%	37.3%	0.66×	4.03
4-5 goals	20.8%	24.8%	31.5%	0.79×	4.04
5-6 goals	10.0%	9.0%	18.1%	0.50×	11.13
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	3.2%	0.79×	39.00

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo never behind	47.7%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
TOP Oss never behind	31.9%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	51.0%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.0%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	90.9%	1.05×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.6%	92.2%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.5%	87.5%	78.8%	1.11×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.7%	72.4%	59.6%	1.22×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	71.9%	72.4%	81.4%	0.89×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.1%	53.0%	37.8%	1.40×	1.89
Over 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.0%	62.2%	0.76×	2.13
Under 1.5 goals	28.1%	27.6%	18.6%	1.48×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	25.3%	27.6%	40.4%	0.68×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.5%	12.5%	21.2%	0.59×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	7.4%	7.8%	4.8%	1.61×	12.84
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	9.1%	0.51×	21.74

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.1%	97.1%	89.7%	1.08×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.6%	86.6%	73.7%	1.17×	1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.8%	67.7%	48.3%	1.40×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.5%	61.6%	77.0%	0.80×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.5%	38.4%	23.0%	1.67×	2.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.3%	32.3%	51.7%	0.63×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.4%	13.4%	26.3%	0.51×	7.47
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.9%	2.9%	10.3%	0.28×	35.07
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	3.4%	0.83×	35.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.5%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.5%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss not to score in both halves	83.2%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
VVV-Venlo not to score in both halves	73.5%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
VVV-Venlo to score in both halves	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
TOP Oss to score in both halves	16.8%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.5%	54.2%	58.7%	0.92×	1.85
Only VVV-Venlo scores	26.4%	26.1%	22.8%	1.14×	3.83
Only TOP Oss scores	15.7%	16.0%	13.9%	1.15×	6.26
Neither team scores	7.4%	7.1%	4.8%	1.47×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.0%	22.4%	19.4%	1.16×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.4%	21.8%	1.03×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	20.7%	22.4%	13.9%	1.61×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.1%	19.4%	0.62×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	7.4%	7.8%	4.8%	1.61×	12.86
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.8%	12.3%	0.63×	12.86
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.5%	9.1%	0.50×	22.22

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	34.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	19.5%	15.3%	—	—	6.53
3+ goals in 1st half	9.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.6%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.9%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	22.5%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss not to win both halves	94.4%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
VVV-Venlo not to win both halves	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
VVV-Venlo to win both halves	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
TOP Oss to win both halves	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.73

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
VVV-Venlo to win either half	58.8%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
TOP Oss to win neither half	58.0%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
TOP Oss to win either half	42.0%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
VVV-Venlo to win neither half	41.2%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss not to win to nil	84.3%	83.2%	86.1%	0.97×	1.20
VVV-Venlo not to win to nil	73.6%	75.2%	77.2%	0.97×	1.33
VVV-Venlo to win to nil	26.4%	24.8%	22.8%	1.09×	4.03
TOP Oss to win to nil	15.7%	16.8%	13.9%	1.21×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	27.7%	22.3%	1.24×	3.61
VVV-Venlo by 1	23.7%	24.2%	20.1%	1.20×	4.14
TOP Oss by 1	17.6%	16.9%	18.1%	0.93×	5.92
VVV-Venlo by 2	13.8%	11.7%	12.7%	0.93×	8.53
VVV-Venlo by 3+	8.8%	7.3%	11.9%	0.61×	13.76
TOP Oss by 2	7.5%	7.3%	8.8%	0.82×	13.76
TOP Oss by 3+	3.2%	2.8%	6.7%	0.42×	35.59

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.