Wales v Norway — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 1 October 2026 · EUR-Nations League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.2%
- 1-2 8.9%
- 0-1 8.0%
- 2-1 7.9%
- 1-0 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | Under 2.5 | 42.6% |
| BTTS yes | 60.0% | BTTS no | 40.0% |
| Wales 1+ | 75.5% | Wales 2+ | 41.0% |
| Norway 1+ | 79.5% | Norway 2+ | 47.0% |
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Norway have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Wales have allowed 1.35.
- Away from home Norway average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Wales have only 0 matches on record.
- Norway have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Norway have an estimated 41.8% win probability, against 33.9% for Wales and 24.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Wales and 1.58 for Norway.
Why Wales
Wales have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Norway have allowed 1.35. At home Wales average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.41 to 1.58.
Why Norway can win
Norway have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Wales have allowed 1.35. Away from home Norway average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Wales, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Norway, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Wales: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Norway: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Norway are the model's most likely outcome at 41.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.41–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.