Waterford v Derry City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 14 September 2026 · IRL-Premier Division · 2627

IRL-Premier Division results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Waterford

18:45 UTC

Derry City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 155h before kick-off

Waterford win

39.3%

Draw

28.5%

Derry City win

32.2%

392832

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.3%
2-1 8.8%
1-2 7.9%
0-0 7.0%
2-2 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.3%	Under 2.5	41.7%
BTTS yes	62.9%	BTTS no	37.1%
Waterford 1+	79.7%	Waterford 2+	47.4%
Derry City 1+	76.1%	Derry City 2+	42.0%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

16/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 46%

58.9% fair odds 1.70

strong signal · 23024 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Waterford (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 92%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4434 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Waterford have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Derry City have allowed 1.35.
At home Waterford average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Waterford have only 0 matches on record.
Derry City have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Waterford have an estimated 39.3% win probability, against 32.2% for Derry City and 28.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for Waterford and 1.43 for Derry City.

Why Waterford

Waterford have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Derry City have allowed 1.35. At home Waterford average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.60 to 1.43.

Why Derry City can win

Derry City have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Waterford have allowed 1.35. Away from home Derry City average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Waterford, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Derry City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Waterford: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Derry City: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Waterford are the model's most likely outcome at 39.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 16/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402831	1.63–1.42	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382835	1.62–1.55	1-1 13%	61%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to win	40.3%	41.6%	40.8%	1.02×	2.41
Derry City to win	31.3%	31.5%	28.2%	1.12×	3.17
Draw	28.4%	27.1%	31.3%	0.87×	3.69

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford & both teams score	23.1%	21.7%	18.4%	1.18×	4.61
Draw & both teams score	21.4%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.61
Derry City & both teams score	18.6%	18.1%	16.3%	1.11×	5.52
Waterford & not both score	17.2%	18.1%	22.7%	0.80×	5.52
Derry City & not both score	12.7%	12.7%	12.3%	1.03×	7.88
Draw & not both score	7.0%	7.6%	9.5%	0.80×	13.08

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford & over 1.5	34.8%	31.8%	30.4%	1.05×	3.15
Waterford & over 2.5	28.5%	26.4%	23.0%	1.15×	3.79
Derry City & over 1.5	26.8%	26.4%	20.9%	1.26×	3.79
Waterford & under 3.5	24.2%	21.8%	31.0%	0.70×	4.58
Draw & over 1.5	21.4%	21.8%	22.1%	0.99×	4.58
Derry City & over 2.5	22.0%	21.8%	17.5%	1.25×	4.58
Draw & under 2.5	20.1%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.58
Draw & under 3.5	20.1%	21.8%	23.3%	0.94×	4.58
Derry City & under 3.5	19.4%	17.7%	20.6%	0.86×	5.64
Waterford & over 3.5	16.2%	17.7%	10.1%	1.75×	5.64
Waterford & under 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	18.1%	0.69×	8.06
Derry City & over 3.5	11.9%	12.4%	8.0%	1.56×	8.06
Derry City & under 2.5	9.4%	7.6%	11.0%	0.69×	13.20
Draw & under 1.5	7.0%	7.6%	9.5%	0.80×	13.21
Draw & over 2.5	8.2%	7.6%	8.3%	0.91×	13.20
Draw & over 3.5	8.2%	7.6%	8.3%	0.91×	13.20
Waterford & under 1.5	5.5%	7.6%	10.7%	0.71×	13.21
Derry City & under 1.5	4.6%	4.4%	7.7%	0.57×	22.79

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford (1UP)	59.0%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Derry City (1UP)	51.3%	54.2%	—	—	1.85

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford (2UP)	40.3%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Derry City (2UP)	31.3%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to win 2nd half	34.8%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
2nd half drawn	34.6%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Derry City to win 2nd half	30.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City (+2.5)	91.1%	92.3%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Derry City (+1.5)	78.3%	78.0%	82.2%	0.95×	1.28
Waterford (+0.5)	68.7%	67.9%	71.8%	0.95×	1.47
Derry City (+0.5)	59.7%	58.3%	59.2%	0.99×	1.71
Waterford (-0.5)	40.3%	41.7%	40.8%	1.02×	2.40
Derry City (-0.5)	31.3%	32.1%	28.2%	1.14×	3.12
Waterford (-1.5)	21.7%	22.0%	17.8%	1.24×	4.55
Waterford (-2.5)	8.9%	7.7%	7.4%	1.05×	12.97

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City to concede	80.3%	82.8%	78.5%	1.05×	1.21
Derry City clean sheet	19.7%	17.2%	21.5%	0.80×	5.82

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City to concede in 1st half	50.3%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Derry City clean sheet in 1st half	49.7%	46.3%	—	—	2.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City under 3.5 goals	94.4%	92.2%	96.9%	0.95×	1.09
Derry City under 2.5 goals	82.9%	82.5%	89.6%	0.92×	1.21
Derry City over 0.5 goals	75.8%	76.4%	68.1%	1.12×	1.31
Derry City under 1.5 goals	58.5%	58.9%	67.2%	0.88×	1.70
Derry City over 1.5 goals	41.5%	41.1%	32.8%	1.25×	2.43
Derry City under 0.5 goals	24.2%	23.6%	31.9%	0.74×	4.23
Derry City over 2.5 goals	17.1%	17.5%	10.4%	1.68×	5.71
Derry City over 3.5 goals	5.6%	7.8%	3.1%	2.56×	12.76

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City under 1.5 in 1st half	88.9%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Derry City under 0.5 in 1st half	56.7%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Derry City over 0.5 in 1st half	43.3%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Derry City over 1.5 in 1st half	11.1%	12.9%	—	—	7.78

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford (away no bet)	58.7%	58.7%	56.6%	1.04×	1.71
Draw (away no bet)	41.3%	41.3%	43.4%	0.95×	2.42

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City even goals	52.9%	53.6%	57.1%	0.94×	1.87
Derry City odd goals	47.1%	46.4%	42.9%	1.08×	2.16

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.8%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.2%	17.7%	—	—	5.64

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.1%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.9%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.2%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Waterford to score 2+ in a row	38.4%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
Derry City to score 2+ in a row	31.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Waterford to score 3+ in a row	13.8%	12.9%	—	—	7.75
Derry City to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	7.8%	—	—	12.87

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.2%	11.2%	14.1%	0.80×	8.91
0-0	7.0%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.45
1-0	5.5%	7.4%	10.7%	0.69×	13.45
1-2	7.8%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.45
2-0	6.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.45
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.45
2-2	6.3%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.45
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.34
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.34
0-3	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.34
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.35
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.34
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.34
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.34
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.35
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.34
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.34
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.34
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.34
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.35
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.34
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.34
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.34
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.35
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.59×	58.35
Any other score	4.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.34

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford leading at HT (DNB)	57.0%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Derry City leading at HT (DNB)	43.0%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford or Derry City (12)	71.6%	72.9%	68.7%	1.06×	1.37
Waterford or draw (1X)	68.7%	68.5%	71.8%	0.95×	1.46
Derry City or draw (X2)	59.7%	58.4%	59.2%	0.99×	1.71

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford or draw at HT	74.7%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Derry City or draw at HT	66.5%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Waterford or Derry City at HT	58.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford or draw (1UP)	68.7%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Derry City or draw (1UP)	59.7%	64.8%	—	—	1.54

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford or draw in 2nd half	69.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Waterford or Derry City in 2nd half	65.4%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Derry City or draw in 2nd half	65.2%	67.1%	—	—	1.49

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Neither half drawn	40.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford (DNB)	56.3%	57.0%	59.1%	0.96×	1.76
Derry City (DNB)	43.7%	43.0%	40.9%	1.05×	2.32

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to score first	49.7%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Derry City to score first	43.4%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
No goal scored	7.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.68

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.1%	59.0%	56.1%	1.05×	1.70
Not both teams to score	36.9%	41.0%	43.9%	0.94×	2.44

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.9%	45.1%	42.3%	1.07×	2.22
Not both score & under 2.5	28.2%	31.4%	38.0%	0.83×	3.18
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	11.9%	14.1%	0.84×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.4%	6.1%	1.38×	11.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.0%	80.1%	83.1%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.0%	19.9%	16.9%	1.18×	5.03

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	27.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Both score 1st half only	14.6%	11.9%	—	—	8.40
Both score in both halves	7.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.46

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	22.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
A half without a goal	39.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.73

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	46.5%	47.2%	0.98×	2.15
4-6 goals	32.7%	31.2%	23.9%	1.30×	3.21
0-1 goals	17.1%	19.1%	27.3%	0.70×	5.24
7+ goals	3.6%	2.0%	2.1%	0.94×	49.70

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City to score exactly 1	34.3%	32.3%	35.6%	0.91×	3.09
Derry City to score exactly 2	24.4%	23.3%	22.7%	1.02×	4.30
Derry City to score exactly 0	24.2%	23.3%	31.9%	0.73×	4.30
Derry City to score 3+	17.1%	18.2%	10.4%	1.75×	5.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to score exactly 1	32.0%	32.2%	35.9%	0.90×	3.10
Waterford to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.4%	28.5%	0.93×	3.78
Waterford to score 3+	22.3%	22.9%	14.7%	1.55×	4.38
Waterford to score exactly 0	19.7%	18.2%	21.5%	0.85×	5.51

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Waterford leading at HT	33.5%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Derry City leading at HT	25.3%	28.7%	—	—	3.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford -1: 2	59.7%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Waterford -1: 1	21.7%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
Waterford -1: X	18.6%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City (0:1)	59.7%	57.8%	59.2%	0.98×	1.73
Waterford (0:1)	21.7%	23.6%	17.8%	1.32×	4.24
Draw (0:1)	18.6%	18.2%	23.3%	0.78×	5.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City (0:2)	78.3%	79.1%	82.2%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.8%	11.4%	10.7%	1.06×	8.81
Waterford (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	7.4%	1.05×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City (0:3)	91.1%	92.5%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	6.5%	5.5%	1.18×	15.41
Waterford (0:3)	3.0%	2.6%	2.1%	1.19×	39.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City (0:4)	97.0%	97.7%	97.9%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.4%	1.5%	0.92×	70.70
Waterford (0:4)	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%	1.54×	70.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford (1:0)	68.7%	69.1%	71.8%	0.96×	1.45
Draw (1:0)	16.0%	17.3%	20.2%	0.86×	5.77
Derry City (1:0)	15.3%	17.3%	8.3%	2.09×	5.77

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford (2:0)	84.7%	83.8%	91.7%	0.91×	1.19
Draw (2:0)	9.7%	6.6%	6.4%	1.03×	15.10
Derry City (2:0)	5.6%	6.6%	2.1%	3.08×	15.12

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Halves equal	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to concede	75.8%	77.1%	68.1%	1.13×	1.30
Waterford clean sheet	24.2%	22.9%	31.9%	0.72×	4.37

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford clean sheet in 1st half	56.7%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Waterford to concede in 1st half	43.3%	45.9%	—	—	2.18

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford under 3.5 goals	91.8%	92.3%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Waterford over 0.5 goals	80.3%	82.3%	78.5%	1.05×	1.22
Waterford under 2.5 goals	77.7%	78.2%	85.3%	0.92×	1.28
Waterford under 1.5 goals	51.7%	52.8%	57.1%	0.93×	1.89
Waterford over 1.5 goals	48.3%	47.2%	42.9%	1.10×	2.12
Waterford over 2.5 goals	22.3%	21.8%	14.7%	1.48×	4.58
Waterford under 0.5 goals	19.7%	17.7%	21.5%	0.82×	5.65
Waterford over 3.5 goals	8.2%	7.7%	5.8%	1.31×	13.07

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford under 1.5 in 1st half	84.5%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Waterford over 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Waterford under 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Waterford over 1.5 in 1st half	15.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City (home no bet)	52.5%	52.0%	47.4%	1.10×	1.92
Draw (home no bet)	47.5%	48.0%	52.6%	0.91×	2.08

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford even goals	51.9%	50.9%	54.3%	0.94×	1.96
Waterford odd goals	48.1%	49.1%	45.7%	1.07×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.6%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
HT 1-0	19.3%	19.9%	—	—	5.02
HT 0-1	15.6%	19.9%	—	—	5.04
HT 1-1	11.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	6.9%	8.0%	—	—	12.55
Any other HT score	5.3%	8.0%	—	—	12.57
HT 0-2	4.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.38
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.40
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.44
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford at HT / Waterford at FT	24.5%	21.0%	—	—	4.77
Derry City at HT / Derry City at FT	17.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Draw at HT / Waterford at FT	13.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Draw at HT / Derry City at FT	11.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Waterford at HT / Draw at FT	6.2%	6.5%	—	—	15.49
Derry City at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.4%	—	—	15.51
Waterford at HT / Derry City at FT	2.7%	3.6%	—	—	27.56
Derry City at HT / Waterford at FT	2.7%	3.6%	—	—	27.56

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to score last	49.8%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Derry City to score last	43.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
No goal scored	7.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.68

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.0%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Waterford to lead by 1 at any time	59.0%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Derry City to lead by 1 at any time	51.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Waterford to lead by 2 at any time	29.0%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Derry City to lead by 2 at any time	22.1%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.1%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
Waterford to lead by 3 at any time	11.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
Derry City to lead by 3 at any time	7.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.47

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.2%	82.1%	86.2%	0.95×	1.22
2-6 goals	79.4%	77.9%	70.9%	1.10×	1.28
1-4 goals	73.8%	72.2%	77.9%	0.93×	1.39
2-5 goals	74.1%	72.2%	68.4%	1.06×	1.39
2-4 goals	63.7%	62.7%	60.1%	1.04×	1.60
1-3 goals	56.8%	58.9%	65.0%	0.91×	1.70
3-6 goals	55.1%	58.9%	46.3%	1.27×	1.70
3-5 goals	49.8%	47.4%	43.9%	1.08×	2.11
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.4%	47.2%	1.00×	2.11
3-4 goals	39.4%	39.0%	35.6%	1.10×	2.56
1-2 goals	34.4%	34.7%	42.6%	0.81×	2.88
4-6 goals	32.7%	34.7%	23.9%	1.45×	2.88
4-5 goals	27.4%	28.5%	21.5%	1.33×	3.51
5-6 goals	15.6%	18.9%	11.0%	1.71×	5.30
7+ goals	3.6%	2.3%	2.1%	1.05×	44.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford never behind	41.7%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Derry City never behind	34.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.72

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	54.5%	50.1%	49.7%	1.01×	2.00
Odd number of goals	45.5%	49.9%	50.3%	0.99×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	90.5%	1.02×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	81.6%	72.7%	1.12×	1.23
Under 4.5 goals	80.8%	81.6%	87.1%	0.94×	1.23
Under 3.5 goals	63.7%	62.0%	74.2%	0.83×	1.61
Over 2.5 goals	58.7%	57.8%	48.2%	1.20×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	41.3%	42.2%	51.8%	0.81×	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	36.3%	38.0%	25.8%	1.48×	2.63
Over 4.5 goals	19.2%	18.4%	12.9%	1.43×	5.44
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	18.4%	27.3%	0.67×	5.44
Over 5.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	4.6%	1.68×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	9.5%	0.81×	12.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.2%	97.3%	97.8%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.1%	92.0%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.5%	76.0%	63.8%	1.19×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.8%	76.0%	85.2%	0.89×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.3%	52.0%	66.8%	0.78×	1.92
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.7%	48.0%	33.2%	1.45×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.2%	24.0%	14.8%	1.63×	4.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.5%	24.0%	36.2%	0.66×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.9%	8.0%	5.0%	1.59×	12.50
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.8%	2.7%	2.2%	1.24×	36.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.5%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.5%	11.6%	—	—	8.59

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City not to score in both halves	75.2%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Waterford not to score in both halves	69.6%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Waterford to score in both halves	30.4%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Derry City to score in both halves	24.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.1%	61.2%	56.1%	1.09×	1.63
Only Waterford scores	17.2%	16.9%	22.7%	0.74×	5.93
Only Derry City scores	12.7%	11.2%	12.3%	0.91×	8.94
Neither team scores	7.0%	7.1%	9.5%	0.75×	14.09

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	22.3%	24.8%	0.90×	4.49
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	22.7%	0.98×	4.49
Exactly 4 goals	17.0%	17.6%	13.2%	1.34×	5.68
Exactly 1 goals	10.1%	12.3%	18.1%	0.68×	8.15
Exactly 5 goals	10.4%	12.3%	8.6%	1.43×	8.15
6 or more goals	8.8%	7.8%	4.6%	1.69×	12.88
Exactly 0 goals	7.0%	7.8%	9.5%	0.82×	12.88

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.8%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
1 goal in 2nd half	28.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goals in 2nd half	17.7%	16.4%	—	—	6.08

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City not to win both halves	92.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Waterford not to win both halves	88.0%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Waterford to win both halves	12.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Derry City to win both halves	8.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.51

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Waterford to win either half	56.2%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Derry City to win neither half	52.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Derry City to win either half	47.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Waterford to win neither half	43.8%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derry City not to win to nil	87.3%	87.9%	87.7%	1.00×	1.14
Waterford not to win to nil	82.8%	82.9%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Waterford to win to nil	17.2%	17.1%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87
Derry City to win to nil	12.7%	12.1%	12.3%	0.99×	8.24

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.4%	27.3%	31.3%	0.87×	3.66
Waterford by 1	18.6%	17.2%	23.3%	0.74×	5.80
Derry City by 1	16.0%	17.2%	20.2%	0.85×	5.80
Waterford by 2	12.8%	11.8%	10.7%	1.10×	8.45
Derry City by 2	9.7%	7.3%	6.4%	1.13×	13.76
Waterford by 3+	8.9%	7.3%	7.4%	0.99×	13.77
Derry City by 3+	5.6%	7.3%	2.1%	3.38×	13.77