Watford v Middlesbrough — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Watford

15:00 UTC

Middlesbrough

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 316h before kick-off

Watford win

27.9%

model 28.7%

Draw

27.9%

model 27.9%

Middlesbrough win

44.1%

model 43.4%

282844

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.3%
1-2 9.2%
0-1 8.2%
0-0 7.7%
0-2 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.5%	Under 2.5	47.5%
BTTS yes	57.1%	BTTS no	42.9%
Watford 1+	70.6%	Watford 2+	34.6%
Middlesbrough 1+	78.8%	Middlesbrough 2+	45.9%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.55. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

48/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Middlesbrough or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 57%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.4% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1261 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1394.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Middlesbrough have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 27.9% for Watford and 27.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Watford and 1.55 for Middlesbrough.

Why Watford

Nothing in the data singles out Watford.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Middlesbrough can win

Middlesbrough carry the stronger rating, 1516 Elo against 1394.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Middlesbrough, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Watford: 43% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Middlesbrough: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Middlesbrough are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	292843	1.23–1.55	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	302941	1.17–1.41	1-1 14%	48%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win	41.0%	42.9%	29.1%	1.48×	2.33
Watford to win	29.7%	27.9%	43.4%	0.64×	3.58
Draw	29.3%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & not both score	21.9%	21.8%	15.2%	1.43×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	20.2%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.59
Middlesbrough & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.56
Watford & not both score	15.3%	18.0%	23.3%	0.77×	5.57
Watford & both teams score	14.4%	13.3%	20.2%	0.66×	7.53
Draw & not both score	9.1%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & over 1.5	31.8%	30.7%	21.4%	1.44×	3.25
Middlesbrough & under 3.5	29.1%	26.1%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Middlesbrough & over 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	16.2%	1.33×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	23.1%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.1%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Watford & over 1.5	22.4%	21.6%	32.5%	0.67×	4.63
Watford & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	32.4%	0.67×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.2%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Watford & over 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	26.4%	0.68×	5.56
Middlesbrough & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	12.9%	1.39×	5.56
Watford & under 2.5	12.5%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Middlesbrough & over 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	6.8%	1.89×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Middlesbrough & under 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Watford & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Watford & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1UP)	57.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Watford (1UP)	47.3%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2UP)	41.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Watford (2UP)	29.7%	25.4%	—	—	3.93

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Middlesbrough to win 2nd half	36.6%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Watford to win 2nd half	26.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.1%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.9%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.7%	—	—	4.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.5%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Watford under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Watford over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Watford over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.5%	11.6%	—	—	8.60

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (+2.5)	96.0%	96.3%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Middlesbrough (+1.5)	87.3%	88.5%	80.7%	1.10×	1.13
Middlesbrough (+0.5)	70.3%	73.6%	56.6%	1.30×	1.36
Watford (+0.5)	59.0%	57.0%	70.9%	0.80×	1.75
Middlesbrough (-0.5)	41.0%	43.0%	29.1%	1.48×	2.33
Watford (-0.5)	29.7%	26.4%	43.4%	0.61×	3.79
Watford (-1.5)	12.7%	11.5%	19.3%	0.60×	8.67
Watford (-2.5)	4.0%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	27.06

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede	69.0%	72.4%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Middlesbrough clean sheet	31.0%	27.6%	22.4%	1.23×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 1st half	60.4%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Middlesbrough to concede in 1st half	39.6%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 2nd half	51.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Middlesbrough to concede in 2nd half	48.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough over 2.5 corners	90.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Middlesbrough over 3.5 corners	83.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Middlesbrough over 5.5 corners	63.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough over 6.5 corners	53.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Middlesbrough under 6.5 corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Middlesbrough under 5.5 corners	36.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Middlesbrough under 4.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Middlesbrough under 3.5 corners	16.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Middlesbrough under 2.5 corners	9.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.87

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.4%	97.8%	0.94×	1.08
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals	83.1%	81.5%	90.6%	0.90×	1.23
Middlesbrough over 0.5 goals	75.6%	76.2%	69.5%	1.10×	1.31
Middlesbrough under 1.5 goals	58.8%	59.4%	70.0%	0.85×	1.68
Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals	41.2%	40.6%	30.0%	1.35×	2.47
Middlesbrough under 0.5 goals	24.4%	23.8%	30.5%	0.78×	4.21
Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals	16.9%	18.5%	9.4%	1.96×	5.40
Middlesbrough over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.6%	2.2%	3.46×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.51

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough scores more in 2nd half	39.7%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Middlesbrough scores equally in both	37.5%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Middlesbrough scores more in 1st half	22.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (away no bet)	50.4%	51.6%	61.1%	0.84×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	49.6%	48.4%	38.9%	1.24×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough even goals	53.0%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Middlesbrough odd goals	47.0%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.1%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Middlesbrough to score 2+ in a row	33.4%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Watford to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.6%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Middlesbrough to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Watford to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough corners (+3.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Middlesbrough corners (+2.5)	83.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Middlesbrough corners (+1.5)	78.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Watford corners (+3.5)	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Middlesbrough corners (-1.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Watford corners (+2.5)	52.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Middlesbrough corners (-2.5)	47.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Watford corners (+1.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Middlesbrough corners (-3.5)	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Watford corners (-1.5)	22.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Watford corners (-2.5)	16.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Watford corners (-3.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	53.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
0-8 corners	23.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
9-11 corners	23.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	83.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	76.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	69.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 10.5 corners	61.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 11.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 12.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 12.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 11.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 10.5 corners	38.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	30.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	23.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Under 7.5 corners	16.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.0%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
0-0	9.1%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-1	9.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	8.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	7.5%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
1-0	7.3%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.51
2-1	7.3%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
2-0	5.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
0-3	3.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.31
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.31
3-0	2.0%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2nd half DNB)	58.4%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Watford (2nd half DNB)	41.6%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough leading at HT (DNB)	53.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	46.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or Middlesbrough (12)	70.7%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Middlesbrough or draw (X2)	70.3%	72.1%	56.6%	1.27×	1.39
Watford or draw (1X)	59.0%	57.1%	70.9%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw at HT	74.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Watford or draw at HT	70.7%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Watford or Middlesbrough at HT	54.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1UP)	70.3%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Watford or draw (1UP)	59.0%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw in 2nd half	73.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Watford or draw in 2nd half	63.4%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Watford or Middlesbrough in 2nd half	62.7%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	35.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (DNB)	58.0%	58.1%	40.1%	1.45×	1.72
Watford (DNB)	42.0%	41.9%	59.9%	0.70×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score first	49.7%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Watford to score first	41.2%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	9.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.7%	51.3%	54.4%	0.94×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.3%	48.7%	45.6%	1.07×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.7%	38.5%	39.9%	0.96×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	38.3%	38.4%	37.1%	1.04×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.0%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.5%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.5%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.7%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.3%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	21.0%	—	—	4.76
Both score 1st half only	12.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	4.8%	5.0%	—	—	20.13

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	48.1%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.4%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	25.6%	26.6%	25.9%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.4%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.36
7+ goals	1.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.37

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score exactly 1	34.4%	33.8%	39.6%	0.85×	2.96
Middlesbrough to score exactly 0	24.4%	22.3%	30.5%	0.73×	4.49
Middlesbrough to score exactly 2	24.3%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Middlesbrough to score 3+	16.9%	19.6%	9.4%	2.07×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.6%	37.0%	0.96×	2.81
Watford to score exactly 0	31.0%	32.6%	22.4%	1.45×	3.07
Watford to score exactly 2	21.3%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Watford to score 3+	11.4%	14.3%	16.1%	0.89×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Middlesbrough leading at HT	29.3%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Watford leading at HT	25.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough -1: 1	59.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Middlesbrough -1: X	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Middlesbrough -1: 2	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:1)	70.3%	70.9%	56.6%	1.25×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.0%	17.8%	24.2%	0.74×	5.61
Watford (0:1)	12.7%	13.7%	19.3%	0.71×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:2)	87.3%	87.1%	80.7%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.7%	7.7%	11.3%	0.68×	13.03
Watford (0:2)	4.0%	3.8%	8.1%	0.47×	26.64

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:3)	96.0%	96.6%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.0%	2.4%	4.8%	0.50×	42.10
Watford (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.08
Watford (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (1:0)	59.0%	58.4%	70.9%	0.82×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	20.8%	21.7%	17.4%	1.24×	4.61
Middlesbrough (1:0)	20.2%	21.7%	11.7%	1.85×	4.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (2:0)	79.8%	80.6%	88.3%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.6%	10.3%	8.6%	1.20×	9.72
Middlesbrough (2:0)	7.6%	6.4%	3.2%	1.98×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.3%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	27.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	75.6%	76.0%	69.5%	1.09×	1.32
Watford clean sheet	24.4%	24.0%	30.5%	0.79×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	56.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Watford to concede in 1st half	43.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede in 2nd half	57.1%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Watford clean sheet in 2nd half	42.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford over 2.5 corners	78.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Watford under 6.5 corners	71.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Watford over 3.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford under 5.5 corners	61.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford over 4.5 corners	51.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Watford under 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Watford over 5.5 corners	38.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford under 3.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford over 6.5 corners	28.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Watford under 2.5 corners	21.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	96.9%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Watford under 2.5 goals	88.6%	87.3%	83.9%	1.04×	1.15
Watford over 0.5 goals	69.0%	68.0%	77.6%	0.88×	1.47
Watford under 1.5 goals	67.3%	67.9%	59.4%	1.14×	1.47
Watford over 1.5 goals	32.7%	32.1%	40.6%	0.79×	3.12
Watford under 0.5 goals	31.0%	32.0%	22.4%	1.43×	3.12
Watford over 2.5 goals	11.4%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.85
Watford over 3.5 goals	3.1%	3.6%	5.2%	0.70×	27.53

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	90.9%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	60.4%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	39.6%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	9.1%	5.4%	—	—	18.66

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford scores equally in both	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Watford scores more in 2nd half	34.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Watford scores more in 1st half	23.6%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (home no bet)	58.4%	56.4%	51.3%	1.10×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	41.6%	43.6%	48.7%	0.89×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	54.8%	50.7%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Watford odd goals	45.2%	49.3%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 0-1	19.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-0	17.0%	18.5%	—	—	5.41
HT 1-1	10.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-2	5.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	41.92
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	41.99
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	22.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	16.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	15.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	11.1%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Middlesbrough at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Watford at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Middlesbrough at HT / Watford at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score last	49.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Watford to score last	41.2%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	9.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.9%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Middlesbrough to lead by 1 at any time	57.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	47.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Middlesbrough to lead by 2 at any time	26.1%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	18.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.47
Middlesbrough to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.87
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough most corners	63.7%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Watford most corners	28.7%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	7.6%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.8%	72.4%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.7%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.9%	63.3%	69.1%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.4%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.4%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.1%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	43.2%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.0%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.7%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.4%	24.5%	22.4%	1.09×	4.09
4-5 goals	21.3%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.4%	14.8%	8.2%	1.81×	6.76
7+ goals	1.7%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough never behind	43.7%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
Watford never behind	33.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.4%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.6%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.2%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.0%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.4%	72.5%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	74.0%	72.5%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.3%	52.5%	51.6%	1.02×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	47.7%	47.5%	48.4%	0.98×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.0%	27.5%	23.7%	1.16×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.6%	27.5%	25.9%	1.06×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.0%	12.4%	9.4%	1.32×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.8%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.9%	92.4%	95.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.0%	86.7%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	66.8%	67.4%	68.5%	0.98×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.1%	67.4%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.9%	32.6%	34.9%	0.93×	3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	33.2%	32.6%	31.5%	1.03×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.0%	13.3%	11.0%	1.21×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.1%	7.6%	4.2%	1.80×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.7%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to score in both halves	80.7%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Middlesbrough not to score in both halves	75.3%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Middlesbrough to score in both halves	24.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Watford to score in both halves	19.3%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.7%	53.8%	54.4%	0.99×	1.86
Only Middlesbrough scores	21.9%	22.3%	15.2%	1.46×	4.49
Only Watford scores	15.3%	16.0%	23.3%	0.69×	6.24
Neither team scores	9.1%	7.1%	7.3%	0.98×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.7%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.5%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.0%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	9.1%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.2%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.8%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	34.6%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	19.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
3+ goals in 1st half	9.3%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.2%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.3%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	22.5%	22.7%	—	—	4.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win both halves	93.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Middlesbrough not to win both halves	89.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Middlesbrough to win both halves	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Watford to win both halves	6.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to win neither half	55.4%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Middlesbrough to win either half	54.9%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Middlesbrough to win neither half	45.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Watford to win either half	44.6%	40.9%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win to nil	84.7%	83.1%	76.7%	1.08×	1.20
Middlesbrough not to win to nil	78.1%	78.1%	84.8%	0.92×	1.28
Middlesbrough to win to nil	21.9%	21.9%	15.2%	1.44×	4.57
Watford to win to nil	15.3%	16.9%	23.3%	0.73×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.3%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Middlesbrough by 1	20.8%	24.1%	17.4%	1.38×	4.15
Watford by 1	17.0%	17.0%	24.2%	0.70×	5.87
Middlesbrough by 2	12.6%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.51
Watford by 2	8.7%	7.2%	11.3%	0.64×	13.90
Middlesbrough by 3+	7.6%	7.2%	3.2%	2.23×	13.90
Watford by 3+	4.0%	2.7%	8.1%	0.34×	36.80