Watford v Millwall — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Watford

12:30 UTC

Millwall

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 962h before kick-off

Watford win

28.0%

model 29.3%

Draw

28.0%

model 29.0%

Millwall win

44.1%

model 41.8%

282844

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.8%
0-1 9.0%
1-2 8.9%
0-0 8.8%
0-2 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.7%	Under 2.5	51.3%
BTTS yes	54.3%	BTTS no	45.7%
Watford 1+	69.1%	Watford 2+	32.9%
Millwall 1+	76.4%	Millwall 2+	42.3%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

45/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Millwall or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 57%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Millwall under 2.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 91%

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1394.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Millwall have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.0% for Watford and 28.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.18 for Watford and 1.44 for Millwall.

Why Watford

Nothing in the data singles out Watford.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Millwall can win

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1394.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Millwall, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Watford: 43% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Millwall: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Millwall are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 45/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	292942	1.18–1.44	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	283142	1.04–1.33	1-1 14%	42%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to win	41.7%	42.9%	29.1%	1.48×	2.33
Draw	30.6%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
Watford to win	27.7%	27.9%	43.4%	0.64×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall & not both score	24.4%	21.8%	15.2%	1.43×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.7%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Millwall & both teams score	17.3%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.57
Watford & not both score	15.6%	18.0%	23.3%	0.77×	5.57
Watford & both teams score	12.1%	13.3%	20.2%	0.66×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.9%	13.3%	7.3%	1.81×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall & under 3.5	31.4%	30.7%	22.3%	1.38×	3.25
Millwall & over 1.5	30.8%	30.7%	21.4%	1.44×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	25.4%	26.0%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.4%	26.0%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Millwall & over 2.5	22.6%	21.6%	16.2%	1.33×	4.63
Watford & under 3.5	21.7%	21.6%	32.4%	0.67×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.55
Watford & over 1.5	19.5%	18.0%	32.5%	0.55×	5.55
Millwall & under 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	12.9%	1.39×	5.55
Watford & over 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	26.4%	0.49×	7.79
Watford & under 2.5	13.2%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.9%	12.8%	7.3%	1.76×	7.79
Millwall & under 1.5	10.9%	12.8%	7.7%	1.66×	7.79
Millwall & over 3.5	10.3%	12.8%	6.8%	1.89×	7.79
Watford & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Watford & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (1UP)	56.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Watford (1UP)	44.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2UP)	41.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Watford (2UP)	27.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.2%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Millwall to win 2nd half	36.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Watford to win 2nd half	24.3%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Millwall over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Millwall under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Millwall over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	16.0%	—	—	6.25

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.0%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Watford under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Watford over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Watford over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.0%	11.2%	—	—	8.95

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (+2.5)	96.8%	96.3%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Millwall (+1.5)	89.0%	88.5%	80.7%	1.10×	1.13
Millwall (+0.5)	72.3%	73.7%	56.6%	1.30×	1.36
Watford (+0.5)	58.3%	57.1%	70.9%	0.80×	1.75
Millwall (-0.5)	41.7%	42.9%	29.1%	1.48×	2.33
Watford (-0.5)	27.7%	26.3%	43.4%	0.61×	3.80
Watford (-1.5)	11.0%	11.5%	19.3%	0.60×	8.68
Watford (-2.5)	3.2%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	27.13

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to concede	64.7%	67.6%	77.6%	0.87×	1.48
Millwall clean sheet	35.3%	32.4%	22.4%	1.44×	3.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 1st half	63.9%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Millwall to concede in 1st half	36.1%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 2nd half	55.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Millwall to concede in 2nd half	44.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall over 2.5 corners	87.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Millwall over 3.5 corners	77.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Millwall over 4.5 corners	66.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Millwall under 6.5 corners	56.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Millwall over 5.5 corners	54.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Millwall under 5.5 corners	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Millwall over 6.5 corners	44.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Millwall under 4.5 corners	33.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Millwall under 3.5 corners	22.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Millwall under 2.5 corners	12.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 3.5 goals	95.4%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Millwall under 2.5 goals	85.0%	87.8%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Millwall over 0.5 goals	73.5%	71.9%	69.5%	1.03×	1.39
Millwall under 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.2%	70.0%	0.90×	1.58
Millwall over 1.5 goals	38.3%	36.8%	30.0%	1.23×	2.72
Millwall under 0.5 goals	26.5%	28.1%	30.5%	0.92×	3.55
Millwall over 2.5 goals	15.0%	12.2%	9.4%	1.30×	8.19
Millwall over 3.5 goals	4.6%	2.5%	2.2%	1.14×	39.73

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 1st half	90.0%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Millwall under 0.5 in 1st half	58.8%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Millwall over 0.5 in 1st half	41.2%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Millwall over 1.5 in 1st half	10.0%	6.2%	—	—	16.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall scores equally in both	38.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Millwall scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Millwall scores more in 1st half	22.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	52.5%	51.7%	38.9%	1.33×	1.94
Watford (away no bet)	47.5%	48.3%	61.1%	0.79×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall even goals	53.5%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Millwall odd goals	46.5%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.6%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.4%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.5%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Millwall to score 2+ in a row	31.5%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Watford to score 2+ in a row	21.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.3%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
Millwall to score 3+ in a row	10.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Watford to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall corners (+3.5)	78.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Watford corners (+3.5)	73.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Millwall corners (+2.5)	72.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Watford corners (+2.5)	67.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Millwall corners (+1.5)	64.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Watford corners (+1.5)	59.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Millwall corners (-1.5)	40.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Watford corners (-1.5)	35.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Millwall corners (-2.5)	33.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Watford corners (-2.5)	28.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Millwall corners (-3.5)	26.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Watford corners (-3.5)	21.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	54.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	22.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
0-8 corners	22.6%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	83.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	70.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 10.5 corners	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 11.5 corners	54.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 12.5 corners	53.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 12.5 corners	46.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 11.5 corners	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	29.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 8.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Under 7.5 corners	16.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.5%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
0-0	10.9%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
0-1	10.9%	11.5%	7.7%	1.48×	8.72
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	8.3%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
1-0	8.2%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.51
2-1	6.7%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
2-0	5.1%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
0-3	3.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.30
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.31
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-0	1.8%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.32
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (2nd half DNB)	60.1%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Watford (2nd half DNB)	39.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall leading at HT (DNB)	55.4%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	44.6%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw (X2)	72.3%	72.1%	56.6%	1.27×	1.39
Watford or Millwall (12)	69.4%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Watford or draw (1X)	58.3%	57.1%	70.9%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw at HT	76.6%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Watford or draw at HT	70.9%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Watford or Millwall at HT	52.4%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw (1UP)	72.3%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Watford or draw (1UP)	58.3%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall or draw in 2nd half	75.7%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Watford or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Watford or Millwall in 2nd half	60.8%	63.5%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.5%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.5%	31.9%	—	—	3.14

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (DNB)	60.1%	62.6%	40.1%	1.56×	1.60
Watford (DNB)	39.9%	37.4%	59.9%	0.62×	2.67

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score first	50.0%	46.0%	—	—	2.18
Watford to score first	39.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	10.9%	9.4%	—	—	10.58

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.9%	51.3%	45.6%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.1%	48.7%	54.4%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	43.3%	41.6%	37.1%	1.12×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	34.6%	34.6%	39.9%	0.87×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	14.5%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.6%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.3%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.7%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.4%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.5%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.41

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	47.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.6%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	29.9%	26.6%	25.9%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	20.4%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	1.1%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.45

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.79
Millwall to score exactly 0	26.5%	27.4%	30.5%	0.90×	3.65
Millwall to score exactly 2	23.4%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Millwall to score 3+	15.0%	12.9%	9.4%	1.37×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	37.0%	0.96×	2.81
Watford to score exactly 0	35.3%	35.5%	22.4%	1.58×	2.81
Watford to score exactly 2	19.1%	18.8%	24.6%	0.77×	5.32
Watford to score 3+	8.8%	10.4%	16.1%	0.64×	9.65

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.6%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Millwall leading at HT	29.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Watford leading at HT	23.4%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall -1: 1	58.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Millwall -1: X	21.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Millwall -1: 2	20.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (0:1)	72.3%	71.0%	56.6%	1.26×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.7%	17.8%	24.2%	0.74×	5.62
Watford (0:1)	11.0%	13.7%	19.3%	0.71×	7.31

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (0:2)	89.0%	87.1%	80.7%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	11.3%	0.68×	13.05
Watford (0:2)	3.2%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	26.71

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (0:3)	96.8%	96.6%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	4.8%	0.50×	42.03
Watford (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.84
Watford (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.89

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (1:0)	58.3%	58.3%	70.9%	0.82×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	21.7%	21.7%	17.4%	1.24×	4.61
Millwall (1:0)	20.0%	17.1%	11.7%	1.46×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (2:0)	80.0%	84.5%	88.3%	0.96×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.8%	10.3%	8.6%	1.20×	9.71
Millwall (2:0)	7.2%	6.4%	3.2%	1.98×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	29.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	73.5%	73.1%	69.5%	1.05×	1.37
Watford clean sheet	26.5%	26.9%	30.5%	0.88×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	58.8%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Watford to concede in 1st half	41.2%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede in 2nd half	54.9%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Watford clean sheet in 2nd half	45.1%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford over 2.5 corners	85.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Watford over 3.5 corners	74.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Watford over 4.5 corners	62.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford under 6.5 corners	60.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford over 5.5 corners	50.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Watford under 5.5 corners	49.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Watford over 6.5 corners	39.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford under 4.5 corners	37.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford under 3.5 corners	25.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Watford under 2.5 corners	14.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Watford under 2.5 goals	91.2%	92.2%	83.9%	1.10×	1.09
Watford under 1.5 goals	72.1%	74.2%	59.4%	1.25×	1.35
Watford over 0.5 goals	64.7%	63.6%	77.6%	0.82×	1.57
Watford under 0.5 goals	35.3%	36.4%	22.4%	1.62×	2.75
Watford over 1.5 goals	27.9%	25.8%	40.6%	0.64×	3.88
Watford over 2.5 goals	8.8%	7.8%	16.1%	0.48×	12.82
Watford over 3.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	5.2%	0.70×	27.59

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	92.5%	94.8%	—	—	1.06
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	7.5%	5.2%	—	—	19.08

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford scores equally in both	45.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Watford scores more in 2nd half	32.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Watford scores more in 1st half	22.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall (home no bet)	57.7%	56.4%	51.3%	1.10×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.3%	43.6%	48.7%	0.90×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	56.2%	55.3%	50.5%	1.10×	1.81
Watford odd goals	43.8%	44.7%	49.5%	0.90×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
HT 0-1	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-0	16.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	9.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
Any other HT score	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-1	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall at HT / Millwall at FT	22.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Draw at HT / Millwall at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	10.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.53
Millwall at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Watford at HT / Millwall at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Millwall at HT / Watford at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall to score last	50.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Watford to score last	39.0%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	10.9%	8.8%	—	—	11.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.1%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Millwall to lead by 1 at any time	56.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	44.1%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.6%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Millwall to lead by 2 at any time	25.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	15.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.42
Millwall to lead by 3 at any time	8.8%	6.7%	—	—	14.98
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	1.6%	—	—	61.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall most corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Watford most corners	43.1%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	8.2%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	69.0%	68.8%	72.8%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.6%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.7%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.6%	48.4%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.9%	48.4%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	41.2%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.9%	39.2%	44.5%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.0%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	20.4%	24.4%	22.4%	1.09×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.1%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.1%	8.9%	8.2%	1.09×	11.26
7+ goals	1.1%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millwall never behind	45.0%	48.9%	—	—	2.05
Watford never behind	32.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.6%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.1%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	78.5%	77.3%	76.3%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.1%	72.5%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.4%	48.4%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.9%	27.5%	25.9%	1.06×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	21.5%	22.7%	23.7%	0.96×	4.40
Under 0.5 goals	10.9%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.4%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.4%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.5%	86.8%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.9%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.5%	55.8%	65.1%	0.86×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.5%	44.2%	34.9%	1.27×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.1%	27.6%	31.5%	0.88×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.5%	13.2%	11.0%	1.20×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.6%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.58
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.3%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.88

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.6%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	22.1%	—	—	4.52
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.4%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to score in both halves	83.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Millwall not to score in both halves	77.3%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Millwall to score in both halves	22.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Watford to score in both halves	16.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.1%	50.7%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
Only Millwall scores	24.4%	22.3%	15.2%	1.46×	4.49
Only Watford scores	15.6%	16.0%	23.3%	0.69×	6.24
Neither team scores	10.9%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.8%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.0%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.3%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	10.9%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.4%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	18.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.35
3+ goals in 1st half	7.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.88

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.0%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	25.4%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win both halves	94.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Millwall not to win both halves	89.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Millwall to win both halves	10.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Watford to win both halves	5.9%	5.8%	—	—	17.23

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to win neither half	58.2%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Millwall to win either half	54.7%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Millwall to win neither half	45.3%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Watford to win either half	41.8%	40.9%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win to nil	84.4%	83.1%	76.7%	1.08×	1.20
Millwall not to win to nil	75.6%	78.1%	84.8%	0.92×	1.28
Millwall to win to nil	24.4%	21.9%	15.2%	1.44×	4.57
Watford to win to nil	15.6%	16.9%	23.3%	0.73×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.6%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61
Millwall by 1	21.7%	24.1%	17.4%	1.38×	4.15
Watford by 1	16.7%	17.0%	24.2%	0.70×	5.87
Millwall by 2	12.8%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.50
Watford by 2	7.8%	7.2%	11.3%	0.64×	13.91
Millwall by 3+	7.2%	7.2%	3.2%	2.23×	13.91
Watford by 3+	3.2%	2.7%	8.1%	0.34×	36.87