Watford v Preston North End — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Watford

2–1

18:45 UTC

Preston North End

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 8 Sep, 07:54 · 11h before kick-off

Watford win

39.5%

model 36.7%

Draw

29.5%

model 29.0%

Preston North End win

31.1%

model 34.3%

392931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.8%
0-0 8.5%
2-1 8.4%
1-2 8.1%
1-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.5%	Under 2.5	50.5%
BTTS yes	55.4%	BTTS no	44.6%
Watford 1+	74.2%	Watford 2+	39.2%
Preston North End 1+	72.8%	Preston North End 2+	37.4%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

44/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Preston North End (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 57%

62.8% fair odds 1.59

moderate signal · 11565 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Watford (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 88%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4395 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Watford carry the stronger rating, 1382 Elo against 1328.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Watford have an estimated 39.5% win probability, against 31.1% for Preston North End and 29.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Watford and 1.30 for Preston North End.

Why Watford

Watford carry the stronger rating, 1382 Elo against 1328.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.35 to 1.30. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Preston North End can win

Nothing in the data singles out Preston North End.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Preston North End, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Watford: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Preston North End: 46% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Watford are the model's most likely outcome at 39.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	372934	1.35–1.30	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	413029	1.40–1.16	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	363034	1.29–1.23	1-1 14%	46%	53%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	373034	1.29–1.23	1-1 14%	46%	53%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to win	36.3%	36.2%	43.5%	0.83×	2.76
Preston North End to win	33.8%	30.6%	29.0%	1.05×	3.27
Draw	29.9%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & both teams score	20.3%	21.7%	20.4%	1.07×	4.60
Watford & not both score	19.6%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.55
Preston North End & not both score	18.1%	18.0%	15.3%	1.18×	5.55
Watford & both teams score	16.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.55
Preston North End & both teams score	15.7%	18.0%	13.8%	1.30×	5.55
Draw & not both score	9.5%	8.4%	7.3%	1.15×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford & over 1.5	27.5%	25.9%	32.5%	0.80×	3.86
Watford & under 3.5	26.6%	25.9%	32.5%	0.80×	3.86
Preston North End & over 1.5	25.4%	25.9%	21.4%	1.21×	3.86
Preston North End & under 3.5	24.9%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	23.8%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.8%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Watford & over 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.3%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Preston North End & over 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.57
Watford & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.57
Preston North End & under 2.5	14.5%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Watford & under 1.5	8.9%	8.0%	11.1%	0.72×	12.56
Watford & over 3.5	9.8%	8.0%	11.1%	0.72×	12.56
Draw & under 1.5	9.5%	8.0%	7.3%	1.09×	12.56
Preston North End & over 3.5	8.9%	8.0%	6.8%	1.17×	12.56
Preston North End & under 1.5	8.4%	8.0%	7.7%	1.03×	12.56
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	8.0%	6.0%	1.32×	12.56
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	8.0%	6.0%	1.32×	12.56

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (1UP)	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Preston North End (1UP)	50.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (2UP)	36.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
Preston North End (2UP)	33.8%	30.9%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.2%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Preston North End to win 2nd half	31.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Watford to win 2nd half	30.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End (+2.5)	94.2%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Preston North End (+1.5)	83.2%	82.6%	80.7%	1.02×	1.21
Watford (+0.5)	66.2%	68.7%	71.0%	0.97×	1.46
Preston North End (+0.5)	63.7%	63.0%	56.5%	1.12×	1.59
Watford (-0.5)	36.3%	37.0%	43.5%	0.85×	2.71
Preston North End (-0.5)	33.8%	31.3%	29.0%	1.08×	3.20
Watford (-1.5)	16.8%	17.4%	19.3%	0.90×	5.74
Watford (-2.5)	5.8%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End to concede	72.4%	77.0%	77.5%	0.99×	1.30
Preston North End clean sheet	27.6%	23.0%	22.5%	1.02×	4.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End clean sheet in 1st half	57.5%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Preston North End to concede in 1st half	42.5%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End over 2.5 corners	80.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Preston North End over 3.5 corners	68.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Preston North End under 6.5 corners	67.9%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Preston North End under 5.5 corners	57.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Preston North End over 4.5 corners	55.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Preston North End under 4.5 corners	44.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Preston North End over 5.5 corners	42.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Preston North End over 6.5 corners	32.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Preston North End under 3.5 corners	31.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Preston North End under 2.5 corners	19.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End under 3.5 goals	96.3%	97.4%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Preston North End under 2.5 goals	87.2%	87.9%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Preston North End over 0.5 goals	70.9%	71.8%	69.4%	1.03×	1.39
Preston North End under 1.5 goals	65.1%	67.8%	69.9%	0.97×	1.47
Preston North End over 1.5 goals	34.9%	32.2%	30.1%	1.07×	3.11
Preston North End under 0.5 goals	29.1%	28.2%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Preston North End over 2.5 goals	12.8%	12.1%	9.5%	1.28×	8.26
Preston North End over 3.5 goals	3.7%	2.6%	2.2%	1.16×	38.73

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End under 1.5 in 1st half	91.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Preston North End under 0.5 in 1st half	61.1%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Preston North End over 0.5 in 1st half	38.9%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Preston North End over 1.5 in 1st half	8.8%	5.9%	—	—	17.03

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (away no bet)	54.9%	51.3%	61.2%	0.84×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	45.1%	48.7%	38.8%	1.26×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End even goals	54.2%	52.9%	52.6%	1.01×	1.89
Preston North End odd goals	45.8%	47.1%	47.4%	0.99×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.8%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.2%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.3%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Watford to score 2+ in a row	29.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Preston North End to score 2+ in a row	27.3%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Watford to score 3+ in a row	8.9%	5.7%	—	—	17.62
Preston North End to score 3+ in a row	7.9%	5.7%	—	—	17.69

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford corners (+3.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Watford corners (+2.5)	81.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Watford corners (+1.5)	75.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Preston North End corners (+3.5)	62.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Preston North End corners (+2.5)	55.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Watford corners (-1.5)	53.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Preston North End corners (+1.5)	47.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Watford corners (-2.5)	45.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Watford corners (-3.5)	37.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Preston North End corners (-1.5)	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Preston North End corners (-2.5)	18.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Preston North End corners (-3.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	56.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	22.2%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
0-8 corners	21.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	84.7%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	78.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	71.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 10.5 corners	64.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 11.5 corners	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 12.5 corners	51.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 12.5 corners	48.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 11.5 corners	43.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	36.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 9.5 corners	28.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 8.5 corners	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Under 7.5 corners	15.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.3%	11.4%	14.4%	0.79×	8.80
0-0	9.5%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.53
0-1	8.4%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.53
1-0	8.9%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.53
1-2	7.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.53
2-0	6.7%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.53
2-1	8.2%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.53
0-2	6.1%	7.4%	5.3%	1.39×	13.53
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.41×	13.53
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	57.60
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	57.61
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	57.60
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.6%	2.89×	57.61
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	57.60
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.74×	57.61
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	57.60
3-1	3.5%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	57.60
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	57.60
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	57.61
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	57.61
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	57.61
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	57.61
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.25×	57.61
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.10×	57.61
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.20×	57.61
Any other score	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	57.60

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	53.7%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Preston North End leading at HT (DNB)	46.3%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or Preston North End (12)	70.1%	72.3%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Watford or draw (1X)	66.2%	69.4%	71.0%	0.98×	1.44
Preston North End or draw (X2)	63.7%	63.8%	56.5%	1.13×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or draw at HT	74.9%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Preston North End or draw at HT	70.9%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Watford or Preston North End at HT	54.1%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or draw (1UP)	66.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Preston North End or draw (1UP)	63.7%	71.8%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End or draw in 2nd half	69.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Watford or draw in 2nd half	68.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Watford or Preston North End in 2nd half	61.8%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (DNB)	51.8%	50.0%	60.0%	0.83×	2.00
Preston North End (DNB)	48.2%	50.0%	40.0%	1.25×	2.00

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score first	46.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Preston North End to score first	44.3%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	9.5%	7.6%	—	—	13.20

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.8%	51.6%	54.2%	0.95×	1.94
Not both teams to score	47.2%	48.4%	45.8%	1.06×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.6%	38.7%	37.3%	1.04×	2.59
Both score & over 2.5	38.5%	38.6%	39.9%	0.97×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	14.3%	12.3%	14.4%	0.85×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	7.6%	8.4%	8.6%	0.98×	11.93

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.1%	85.4%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.9%	14.6%	11.0%	1.33×	6.85

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.3%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.7%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.0%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	23.2%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.5%	5.0%	—	—	19.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.2%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	46.9%	50.4%	0.93×	2.13
0-1 goals	26.8%	26.9%	25.9%	1.04×	3.71
4-6 goals	23.2%	23.1%	22.4%	1.03×	4.33
7+ goals	1.5%	1.9%	1.4%	1.35×	53.92

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.8%	39.4%	0.91×	2.80
Preston North End to score exactly 0	29.1%	27.6%	30.6%	0.90×	3.62
Preston North End to score exactly 2	22.2%	22.5%	20.7%	1.09×	4.44
Preston North End to score 3+	12.8%	13.0%	9.5%	1.38×	7.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.5%	36.9%	0.96×	2.81
Watford to score exactly 0	27.6%	26.1%	22.5%	1.16×	3.82
Watford to score exactly 2	22.9%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.28
Watford to score 3+	14.0%	14.3%	16.2%	0.89×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.9%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Watford leading at HT	29.1%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Preston North End leading at HT	25.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford -1: 2	63.7%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Watford -1: X	19.6%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Watford -1: 1	16.8%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End (0:1)	63.7%	61.5%	56.5%	1.09×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.7%	24.2%	0.73×	5.64
Watford (0:1)	16.8%	17.7%	19.3%	0.92×	5.64

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End (0:2)	83.2%	83.1%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.0%	10.9%	11.3%	0.96×	9.21
Watford (0:2)	5.8%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	12.99

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End (0:3)	94.2%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	4.8%	0.49×	42.17
Watford (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.28

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	96.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.76
Watford (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.19×	81.85

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (1:0)	66.2%	69.4%	71.0%	0.98×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	18.7%	17.1%	17.3%	0.99×	5.85
Preston North End (1:0)	15.1%	17.1%	11.9%	1.44×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (2:0)	84.9%	84.5%	88.1%	0.96×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.1%	10.4%	8.7%	1.20×	9.61
Preston North End (2:0)	5.0%	6.6%	3.3%	2.01×	15.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	70.9%	73.1%	69.4%	1.05×	1.37
Watford clean sheet	29.1%	26.9%	30.6%	0.88×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	61.1%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Watford to concede in 1st half	38.9%	36.0%	—	—	2.78

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford over 2.5 corners	90.7%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Watford over 3.5 corners	83.0%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Watford over 4.5 corners	73.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Watford over 5.5 corners	63.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford over 6.5 corners	53.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Watford under 6.5 corners	46.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Watford under 5.5 corners	36.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford under 4.5 corners	26.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Watford under 3.5 corners	17.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Watford under 2.5 corners	9.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	95.8%	96.3%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Watford under 2.5 goals	86.0%	87.2%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Watford over 0.5 goals	72.4%	74.2%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Watford under 1.5 goals	63.1%	63.3%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
Watford over 1.5 goals	36.9%	36.7%	40.6%	0.90×	2.73
Watford under 0.5 goals	27.6%	25.8%	22.5%	1.14×	3.88
Watford over 2.5 goals	14.0%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Watford over 3.5 goals	4.2%	3.7%	5.2%	0.72×	26.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	57.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	42.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.1%	—	—	9.88

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End (home no bet)	53.1%	51.6%	51.3%	1.01×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	46.9%	48.4%	48.7%	0.99×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	53.8%	50.4%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Watford odd goals	46.2%	49.6%	49.5%	1.00×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.4%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
HT 1-0	19.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 0-1	17.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-1	9.8%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 2-0	5.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 0-2	4.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.51
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	21.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Preston North End at HT / Preston North End at FT	18.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Preston North End at FT	13.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Preston North End at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
Watford at HT / Preston North End at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Preston North End at HT / Watford at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score last	46.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Preston North End to score last	44.2%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	9.5%	7.6%	—	—	13.20

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.5%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	52.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Preston North End to lead by 1 at any time	50.6%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	22.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Preston North End to lead by 2 at any time	20.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.10
Preston North End to lead by 3 at any time	6.5%	6.6%	—	—	15.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford most corners	61.0%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Preston North End most corners	31.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Corners level	7.6%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.5%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.7%	72.3%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.8%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.8%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.1%	64.8%	0.97×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.4%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.7%	43.6%	47.1%	0.93×	2.29
1-2 goals	44.3%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-5 goals	41.8%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.0%	35.3%	39.1%	0.90×	2.83
4-6 goals	23.2%	24.8%	22.4%	1.11×	4.03
4-5 goals	20.3%	24.8%	19.8%	1.25×	4.03
5-6 goals	9.7%	9.0%	8.1%	1.11×	11.11
7+ goals	1.5%	2.6%	1.4%	1.87×	38.91

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford never behind	39.8%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Preston North End never behind	37.6%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.7%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.5%	92.2%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Under 4.5 goals	88.9%	87.4%	90.6%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.3%	77.2%	76.3%	1.01×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	73.2%	72.4%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.9%	53.0%	51.6%	1.03×	1.89
Over 2.5 goals	46.1%	47.0%	48.4%	0.97×	2.13
Under 1.5 goals	26.8%	27.6%	25.9%	1.06×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	24.7%	22.8%	23.7%	0.96×	4.38
Over 4.5 goals	11.1%	12.6%	9.4%	1.34×	7.96
Under 0.5 goals	9.5%	7.8%	7.3%	1.07×	12.79
Over 5.5 goals	4.3%	4.6%	4.0%	1.16×	21.73

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.3%	97.1%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.1%	86.6%	89.1%	0.97×	1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.6%	67.6%	68.5%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.2%	61.7%	65.1%	0.95×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.8%	38.3%	34.9%	1.10×	2.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.4%	32.4%	31.5%	1.03×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.9%	13.4%	10.9%	1.23×	7.45
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.7%	2.9%	4.2%	0.68×	35.00
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.9%	1.4%	2.02×	35.09

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.1%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.6%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.6%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.4%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.6%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End not to score in both halves	79.6%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Watford not to score in both halves	77.9%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Watford to score in both halves	22.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Preston North End to score in both halves	20.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.62

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.8%	54.2%	54.2%	1.00×	1.84
Only Watford scores	19.6%	16.0%	23.4%	0.69×	6.24
Only Preston North End scores	18.1%	16.0%	15.3%	1.05×	6.24
Neither team scores	9.5%	7.2%	7.3%	0.98×	13.98

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.1%	24.7%	25.8%	0.96×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.4%	24.7%	0.91×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	17.3%	17.5%	18.7%	0.94×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	13.5%	12.1%	14.4%	0.83×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	9.5%	7.8%	7.3%	1.07×	12.82
Exactly 5 goals	6.8%	7.8%	5.5%	1.42×	12.83
6 or more goals	4.3%	4.5%	4.0%	1.14×	22.21

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	23.4%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End not to win both halves	92.0%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Watford not to win both halves	90.8%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Watford to win both halves	9.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.47
Preston North End to win both halves	8.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.55

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End to win neither half	51.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Watford to win either half	50.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Watford to win neither half	49.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Preston North End to win either half	48.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Preston North End not to win to nil	81.9%	83.1%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Watford not to win to nil	80.4%	83.1%	76.6%	1.08×	1.20
Watford to win to nil	19.6%	16.9%	23.4%	0.72×	5.92
Preston North End to win to nil	18.1%	16.9%	15.3%	1.10×	5.93

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.9%	27.7%	27.6%	1.01×	3.61
Watford by 1	19.6%	16.9%	24.2%	0.70×	5.92
Preston North End by 1	18.7%	16.9%	17.3%	0.98×	5.92
Watford by 2	11.0%	11.7%	11.3%	1.04×	8.52
Preston North End by 2	10.1%	11.7%	8.7%	1.35×	8.52
Watford by 3+	5.8%	7.3%	8.1%	0.90×	13.73
Preston North End by 3+	5.0%	7.3%	3.3%	2.23×	13.73

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.