Watford v Stoke City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Watford

14:00 UTC

Stoke City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 102h before kick-off

Watford win

44.2%

model 41.9%

Draw

27.9%

model 29.9%

Stoke City win

27.9%

model 28.3%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.2%
1-0 10.2%
0-0 10.0%
2-1 8.8%
2-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.8%	Under 2.5	55.2%
BTTS yes	51.1%	BTTS no	48.9%
Watford 1+	74.7%	Watford 2+	40.0%
Stoke City 1+	66.4%	Stoke City 2+	29.8%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

44/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 52%

57.5% fair odds 1.74

moderate signal · 12440 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1599 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Watford carry the stronger rating, 1382 Elo against 1330.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Watford have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 27.9% for Stoke City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Watford and 1.09 for Stoke City.

Why Watford

Watford carry the stronger rating, 1382 Elo against 1330.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Stoke City can win

Nothing in the data singles out Stoke City.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Stoke City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Watford: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Stoke City: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Watford are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	423028	1.38–1.09	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	423227	1.25–0.96	1-1 15%	38%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to win	41.9%	41.7%	43.5%	0.96×	2.40
Draw	29.9%	27.3%	27.6%	0.99×	3.66
Stoke City to win	28.3%	27.3%	29.0%	0.94×	3.66

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford & not both score	23.6%	21.5%	23.4%	0.92×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	19.9%	18.2%	20.4%	0.89×	5.49
Watford & both teams score	18.3%	18.2%	20.2%	0.90×	5.49
Stoke City & not both score	15.3%	18.2%	15.3%	1.19×	5.49
Stoke City & both teams score	13.0%	12.6%	13.8%	0.91×	7.91
Draw & not both score	10.0%	7.7%	7.3%	1.05×	13.04

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford & over 1.5	31.7%	31.8%	32.5%	0.98×	3.15
Watford & under 3.5	30.6%	31.8%	32.5%	0.98×	3.15
Watford & over 2.5	23.7%	21.8%	26.4%	0.83×	4.59
Draw & under 2.5	24.2%	21.8%	21.6%	1.01×	4.59
Draw & under 3.5	24.2%	21.8%	21.6%	1.01×	4.59
Stoke City & under 3.5	21.6%	21.8%	22.3%	0.98×	4.59
Stoke City & over 1.5	20.5%	21.8%	21.4%	1.02×	4.59
Draw & over 1.5	19.9%	17.7%	20.4%	0.87×	5.66
Watford & under 2.5	18.2%	17.7%	17.2%	1.03×	5.66
Stoke City & over 2.5	15.5%	17.7%	16.2%	1.09×	5.66
Stoke City & under 2.5	12.8%	12.5%	13.0%	0.96×	8.03
Watford & under 1.5	10.2%	12.5%	11.1%	1.12×	8.03
Watford & over 3.5	11.2%	12.5%	11.1%	1.12×	8.03
Draw & under 1.5	10.0%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.17
Stoke City & under 1.5	7.8%	7.6%	7.7%	0.98×	13.17
Stoke City & over 3.5	6.7%	7.6%	6.8%	1.12×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.6%	6.0%	1.26×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.6%	6.0%	1.26×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (1UP)	57.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Stoke City (1UP)	45.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (2UP)	41.9%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Stoke City (2UP)	28.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.64

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Watford to win 2nd half	34.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Stoke City to win 2nd half	26.9%	29.7%	—	—	3.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (+2.5)	92.4%	92.3%	91.9%	1.00×	1.08
Stoke City (+1.5)	79.6%	78.3%	80.7%	0.97×	1.28
Watford (+0.5)	71.7%	72.8%	71.0%	1.03×	1.37
Stoke City (+0.5)	58.1%	58.3%	56.5%	1.03×	1.71
Watford (-0.5)	41.9%	41.7%	43.5%	0.96×	2.40
Stoke City (-0.5)	28.3%	27.2%	29.0%	0.94×	3.68
Watford (-1.5)	20.4%	21.7%	19.3%	1.12×	4.60
Watford (-2.5)	7.6%	7.7%	8.1%	0.96×	12.96

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to concede	74.7%	75.6%	77.5%	0.98×	1.32
Stoke City clean sheet	25.3%	24.4%	22.5%	1.09×	4.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City clean sheet in 1st half	55.3%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Stoke City to concede in 1st half	44.7%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City over 2.5 corners	85.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Stoke City over 3.5 corners	75.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Stoke City over 4.5 corners	63.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Stoke City under 6.5 corners	59.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Stoke City over 5.5 corners	51.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Stoke City under 5.5 corners	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Stoke City over 6.5 corners	40.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Stoke City under 4.5 corners	36.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Stoke City under 3.5 corners	24.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
Stoke City under 2.5 corners	14.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 3.5 goals	97.5%	97.3%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Stoke City under 2.5 goals	90.2%	92.1%	90.6%	1.02×	1.09
Stoke City under 1.5 goals	70.2%	71.3%	69.9%	1.02×	1.40
Stoke City over 0.5 goals	66.4%	67.7%	69.4%	0.97×	1.48
Stoke City under 0.5 goals	33.6%	32.3%	30.6%	1.06×	3.09
Stoke City over 1.5 goals	29.8%	28.7%	30.1%	0.96×	3.48
Stoke City over 2.5 goals	9.8%	7.9%	9.5%	0.84×	12.60
Stoke City over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.7%	2.2%	1.19×	37.47

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 1.5 in 1st half	92.8%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Stoke City under 0.5 in 1st half	64.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Stoke City over 0.5 in 1st half	35.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Stoke City over 1.5 in 1st half	7.2%	6.4%	—	—	15.71

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (away no bet)	58.4%	58.5%	61.2%	0.96×	1.71
Draw (away no bet)	41.6%	41.5%	38.8%	1.07×	2.41

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City even goals	55.6%	56.5%	52.6%	1.07×	1.77
Stoke City odd goals	44.4%	43.5%	47.4%	0.92×	2.30

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.4%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.6%	13.1%	—	—	7.64

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.8%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.2%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Watford to score 2+ in a row	32.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Stoke City to score 2+ in a row	22.6%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.77
Watford to score 3+ in a row	10.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.85
Stoke City to score 3+ in a row	5.8%	7.8%	—	—	12.84

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City corners (+3.5)	77.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Watford corners (+3.5)	75.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Stoke City corners (+2.5)	70.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Watford corners (+2.5)	69.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Stoke City corners (+1.5)	63.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Watford corners (+1.5)	61.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Stoke City corners (-1.5)	38.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Watford corners (-1.5)	36.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Stoke City corners (-2.5)	30.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Watford corners (-2.5)	29.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Stoke City corners (-3.5)	24.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Watford corners (-3.5)	22.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	51.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
0-8 corners	24.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
9-11 corners	23.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.4%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	67.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 10.5 corners	59.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 12.5 corners	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 11.5 corners	51.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 11.5 corners	48.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 12.5 corners	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	40.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	32.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Under 7.5 corners	17.6%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.2%	11.2%	14.4%	0.78×	8.90
1-0	10.2%	11.2%	11.1%	1.01×	8.90
0-0	10.0%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.48
0-1	7.8%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.49
2-0	8.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.48
0-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.3%	1.39×	13.49
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.11
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.01×	58.11
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.10
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.86×	58.11
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.10
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.11
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.68×	58.11
3-0	3.7%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.10
3-1	4.0%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.10
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.11
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	2.00×	58.11
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.68×	58.11
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.11
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.00×	58.11
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.11
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.02×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.03×	58.11
Any other score	1.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	59.6%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Stoke City leading at HT (DNB)	40.4%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or draw (1X)	71.7%	72.7%	71.0%	1.02×	1.38
Watford or Stoke City (12)	70.1%	72.7%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Stoke City or draw (X2)	58.1%	58.3%	56.5%	1.03×	1.72

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or draw at HT	78.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Stoke City or draw at HT	67.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Watford or Stoke City at HT	53.9%	54.1%	—	—	1.85

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or draw (1UP)	71.7%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Stoke City or draw (1UP)	58.1%	64.9%	—	—	1.54

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford or draw in 2nd half	73.1%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Stoke City or draw in 2nd half	65.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Watford or Stoke City in 2nd half	61.4%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.3%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Neither half drawn	34.7%	34.7%	—	—	2.88

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (DNB)	59.7%	57.0%	60.0%	0.95×	1.76
Stoke City (DNB)	40.3%	43.0%	40.0%	1.07×	2.32

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score first	50.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Stoke City to score first	39.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
No goal scored	10.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.75

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.1%	51.8%	54.2%	0.96×	1.93
Not both teams to score	48.9%	48.2%	45.8%	1.05×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.0%	41.6%	37.3%	1.12×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	36.9%	38.0%	39.9%	0.95×	2.63
Both score & under 2.5	14.2%	11.9%	14.4%	0.82×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.5%	8.6%	0.99×	11.82

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.9%	89.0%	0.97×	1.16
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.1%	11.0%	1.28×	7.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.4%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.6%	28.6%	—	—	3.50

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.4%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	11.9%	—	—	8.40
Both score in both halves	4.1%	4.6%	—	—	21.67

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.9%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
A goal in each half	49.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	46.6%	50.4%	0.92×	2.15
0-1 goals	27.9%	27.3%	25.9%	1.05×	3.66
4-6 goals	22.2%	23.3%	22.4%	1.04×	4.29
7+ goals	1.3%	2.0%	1.4%	1.45×	50.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.0%	39.4%	0.91×	2.78
Stoke City to score exactly 0	33.6%	32.5%	30.6%	1.06×	3.08
Stoke City to score exactly 2	20.0%	18.4%	20.7%	0.89×	5.43
Stoke City to score 3+	9.8%	8.7%	9.5%	0.92×	11.52

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	34.8%	32.1%	36.9%	0.87×	3.11
Watford to score exactly 0	25.3%	26.4%	22.5%	1.17×	3.79
Watford to score exactly 2	23.9%	22.9%	24.6%	0.93×	4.37
Watford to score 3+	16.1%	18.3%	16.2%	1.14×	5.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.1%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Watford leading at HT	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Stoke City leading at HT	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford -1: 2	58.1%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Watford -1: X	21.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Watford -1: 1	20.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:1)	58.1%	57.3%	56.5%	1.01×	1.74
Draw (0:1)	21.4%	23.5%	24.2%	0.97×	4.25
Watford (0:1)	20.4%	23.5%	19.3%	1.22×	4.25

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:2)	79.6%	79.4%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.9%	11.4%	11.3%	1.00×	8.79
Watford (0:2)	7.6%	7.7%	8.1%	0.96×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:3)	92.4%	92.6%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	6.4%	4.8%	1.33×	15.58
Watford (0:3)	2.3%	2.6%	3.4%	0.77×	38.98

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:4)	97.7%	97.7%	96.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.4%	2.4%	0.59×	70.56
Watford (0:4)	0.6%	1.4%	1.0%	1.37×	70.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (1:0)	71.7%	71.7%	71.0%	1.01×	1.39
Draw (1:0)	16.7%	17.5%	17.3%	1.02×	5.70
Stoke City (1:0)	11.6%	12.5%	11.9%	1.05×	8.02

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (2:0)	88.4%	88.1%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Draw (2:0)	8.1%	6.7%	8.7%	0.77×	14.98
Stoke City (2:0)	3.5%	2.8%	3.3%	0.84×	36.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	28.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	66.4%	68.4%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
Watford clean sheet	33.6%	31.7%	30.6%	1.03×	3.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	64.6%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Watford to concede in 1st half	35.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford over 2.5 corners	85.0%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Watford over 3.5 corners	74.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Watford over 4.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford under 6.5 corners	60.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford over 5.5 corners	50.4%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Watford under 5.5 corners	49.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Watford over 6.5 corners	39.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford under 4.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Watford under 3.5 corners	25.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Watford under 2.5 corners	15.0%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Watford under 2.5 goals	83.9%	82.2%	83.8%	0.98×	1.22
Watford over 0.5 goals	74.7%	73.2%	77.5%	0.94×	1.37
Watford under 1.5 goals	60.0%	62.4%	59.4%	1.05×	1.60
Watford over 1.5 goals	40.0%	37.6%	40.6%	0.92×	2.66
Watford under 0.5 goals	25.3%	26.8%	22.5%	1.19×	3.73
Watford over 2.5 goals	16.1%	17.8%	16.2%	1.10×	5.61
Watford over 3.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	5.2%	1.49×	13.05

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	88.1%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	55.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	44.7%	41.9%	—	—	2.38
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	11.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.88

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	51.4%	52.1%	48.7%	1.07×	1.92
Stoke City (home no bet)	48.6%	47.9%	51.3%	0.93×	2.09

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	53.2%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Watford odd goals	46.8%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.0%	35.4%	—	—	2.83
HT 1-0	20.9%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
HT 0-1	15.4%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
HT 1-1	9.5%	8.0%	—	—	12.44
HT 2-0	6.3%	8.0%	—	—	12.47
HT 0-2	3.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.40
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.43
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.46
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	24.6%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.4%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	15.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.83
Stoke City at HT / Stoke City at FT	14.8%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Draw at HT / Stoke City at FT	11.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.4%	—	—	15.59
Stoke City at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
Watford at HT / Stoke City at FT	1.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.34
Stoke City at HT / Watford at FT	2.1%	3.7%	—	—	27.34

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score last	50.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Stoke City to score last	39.7%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
No goal scored	10.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.75

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.0%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	57.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Stoke City to lead by 1 at any time	45.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.2%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	26.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Stoke City to lead by 2 at any time	16.3%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	7.6%	—	—	13.12
Stoke City to lead by 3 at any time	4.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City most corners	46.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Watford most corners	45.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Corners level	8.4%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.0%	87.1%	88.8%	0.98×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.6%	77.9%	83.4%	0.93×	1.28
2-6 goals	70.8%	72.1%	72.8%	0.99×	1.39
2-5 goals	68.1%	68.2%	70.2%	0.97×	1.47
1-3 goals	66.5%	68.2%	69.1%	0.99×	1.47
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.7%	64.8%	0.97×	1.60
2-3 goals	48.5%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
1-2 goals	45.2%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11
3-6 goals	43.4%	43.7%	47.1%	0.93×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.8%	43.7%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.3%	34.6%	39.1%	0.88×	2.89
4-6 goals	22.2%	23.8%	22.4%	1.06×	4.20
4-5 goals	19.6%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	9.1%	8.9%	8.1%	1.11×	11.18
7+ goals	1.3%	2.2%	1.4%	1.63×	44.61

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford never behind	44.8%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
Stoke City never behind	32.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	53.4%	50.0%	50.6%	0.99×	2.00
Odd number of goals	46.6%	50.0%	49.4%	1.01×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	43.1%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.0%	96.0%	96.0%	1.00×	1.04
Over 0.5 goals	90.0%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.6%	87.7%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.5%	77.0%	76.3%	1.01×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	72.1%	72.2%	74.1%	0.98×	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	55.2%	57.5%	51.6%	1.11×	1.74
Over 2.5 goals	44.8%	42.5%	48.4%	0.88×	2.35
Under 1.5 goals	27.9%	27.8%	25.9%	1.07×	3.60
Over 3.5 goals	23.5%	23.0%	23.7%	0.97×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	10.4%	12.3%	9.4%	1.31×	8.14
Under 0.5 goals	10.0%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	1.00×	25.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.3%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.7%	97.3%	95.8%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.0%	86.7%	89.1%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.1%	71.7%	68.5%	1.05×	1.40
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.6%	62.0%	65.1%	0.95×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.4%	38.0%	34.9%	1.09×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.9%	28.3%	31.5%	0.90×	3.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.0%	13.3%	10.9%	1.22×	7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.3%	2.7%	4.2%	0.65×	36.66
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.7%	1.4%	1.93×	36.70

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.4%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.3%	73.4%	—	—	1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.0%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.0%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to score in both halves	83.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Watford not to score in both halves	75.7%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Watford to score in both halves	24.3%	23.8%	—	—	4.21
Stoke City to score in both halves	17.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.1%	54.5%	54.2%	1.00×	1.84
Only Watford scores	23.6%	21.3%	23.4%	0.91×	4.70
Only Stoke City scores	15.3%	17.1%	15.3%	1.12×	5.84
Neither team scores	10.0%	7.2%	7.3%	0.98×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.3%	25.0%	25.8%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.3%	24.7%	0.90×	4.48
Exactly 1 goals	17.9%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	13.1%	12.3%	14.4%	0.85×	8.13
Exactly 0 goals	10.0%	7.8%	7.3%	1.06×	12.88
Exactly 5 goals	6.5%	7.8%	5.5%	1.41×	12.89
6 or more goals	4.0%	4.1%	4.0%	1.03×	24.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
1 goal in 2nd half	33.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	24.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to win both halves	94.0%	92.3%	—	—	1.08
Watford not to win both halves	88.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Watford to win both halves	11.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Stoke City to win both halves	6.0%	7.7%	—	—	12.96

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to win neither half	57.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Watford to win either half	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Watford to win neither half	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Stoke City to win either half	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to win to nil	84.7%	82.7%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Watford not to win to nil	76.4%	78.7%	76.6%	1.03×	1.27
Watford to win to nil	23.6%	21.3%	23.4%	0.91×	4.69
Stoke City to win to nil	15.3%	17.3%	15.3%	1.13×	5.77

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.9%	27.4%	27.6%	0.99×	3.65
Watford by 1	21.4%	23.3%	24.2%	0.96×	4.29
Stoke City by 1	16.7%	17.3%	17.3%	1.00×	5.78
Watford by 2	12.9%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.46
Stoke City by 2	8.1%	7.3%	8.7%	0.84×	13.66
Watford by 3+	7.6%	7.3%	8.1%	0.91×	13.66
Stoke City by 3+	3.5%	3.0%	3.3%	0.91×	33.81