Wellington Phoenix FC v Melbourne Victory — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · AUS-A-League · 2627

AUS-A-League results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 06:01 UTC

Wellington Phoenix FC

02:00 UTC

Melbourne Victory

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,012h before kick-off

Wellington Phoenix FC win

28.0%

model 26.7%

Draw

23.4%

model 23.6%

Melbourne Victory win

48.6%

model 49.7%

282349

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
1-2 9.6%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 7.7%
2-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.9%	Under 2.5	42.1%
BTTS yes	59.1%	BTTS no	40.9%
Wellington Phoenix FC 1+	71.0%	Wellington Phoenix FC 2+	35.1%
Melbourne Victory 1+	82.9%	Melbourne Victory 2+	52.8%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

36/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Melbourne Victory carry the stronger rating, 1546 Elo against 1433.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Melbourne Victory have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for Wellington Phoenix FC and 23.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.24 for Wellington Phoenix FC and 1.77 for Melbourne Victory.

Why Wellington Phoenix FC

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Melbourne Victory can win

Melbourne Victory carry the stronger rating, 1546 Elo against 1433.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Wellington Phoenix FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Melbourne Victory, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Wellington Phoenix FC: 47% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Melbourne Victory: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Melbourne Victory are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	242254	1.24–1.95	1-1 10%	62%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to win	53.8%	51.5%	35.4%	1.46×	1.94
Wellington Phoenix FC to win	23.9%	24.5%	37.9%	0.65×	4.08
Draw	22.2%	24.5%	27.1%	0.90×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory & both teams score	29.1%	25.2%	19.3%	1.30×	3.98
Melbourne Victory & not both score	24.8%	21.9%	16.4%	1.33×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	22.5%	0.80×	5.58
Wellington Phoenix FC & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	20.0%	0.66×	7.54
Wellington Phoenix FC & not both score	10.0%	8.4%	18.2%	0.46×	11.93
Draw & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.34

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory & over 1.5	45.9%	45.1%	27.5%	1.64×	2.22
Melbourne Victory & over 2.5	38.1%	34.8%	22.1%	1.57×	2.87
Melbourne Victory & under 3.5	30.6%	30.8%	23.6%	1.31×	3.24
Melbourne Victory & over 3.5	23.2%	21.6%	12.1%	1.78×	4.63
Wellington Phoenix FC & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	29.6%	0.61×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.56
Wellington Phoenix FC & over 2.5	15.8%	18.0%	25.7%	0.70×	5.56
Wellington Phoenix FC & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	22.1%	0.81×	5.56
Melbourne Victory & under 2.5	15.8%	18.0%	13.6%	1.32×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.4%	12.9%	16.4%	0.78×	7.76
Draw & under 3.5	14.4%	12.9%	16.4%	0.78×	7.76
Wellington Phoenix FC & under 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	12.5%	0.63×	12.65
Wellington Phoenix FC & over 3.5	8.3%	7.9%	16.1%	0.49×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.65
Melbourne Victory & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.65
Wellington Phoenix FC & under 1.5	5.0%	4.8%	8.6%	0.56×	20.85
Draw & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	5.0%	0.96×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (1UP)	69.3%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Wellington Phoenix FC (1UP)	43.9%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (2UP)	53.8%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
Wellington Phoenix FC (2UP)	23.9%	23.8%	—	—	4.21

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to win 2nd half	46.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	30.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Wellington Phoenix FC to win 2nd half	22.2%	23.1%	—	—	4.34

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.0%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Melbourne Victory under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Melbourne Victory over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Melbourne Victory under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.0%	29.0%	—	—	3.44

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.2%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Wellington Phoenix FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Wellington Phoenix FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Wellington Phoenix FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.8%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (+2.5)	96.9%	96.3%	88.2%	1.09×	1.04
Melbourne Victory (+1.5)	90.3%	92.0%	80.4%	1.15×	1.09
Melbourne Victory (+0.5)	76.1%	78.4%	62.1%	1.26×	1.28
Melbourne Victory (-0.5)	53.8%	52.4%	35.4%	1.48×	1.91
Wellington Phoenix FC (+0.5)	46.2%	47.6%	64.6%	0.74×	2.10
Wellington Phoenix FC (-0.5)	23.9%	21.6%	37.9%	0.57×	4.63
Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)	9.7%	8.0%	19.6%	0.41×	12.57
Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)	3.1%	3.7%	11.8%	0.32×	26.86

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to concede	71.0%	76.6%	78.9%	0.97×	1.31
Melbourne Victory clean sheet	29.0%	23.4%	21.1%	1.11×	4.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory clean sheet in 1st half	58.7%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Melbourne Victory to concede in 1st half	41.3%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to concede in 2nd half	50.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Melbourne Victory clean sheet in 2nd half	49.4%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory over 2.5 corners	87.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Melbourne Victory over 3.5 corners	74.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Melbourne Victory under 6.5 corners	68.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Melbourne Victory over 4.5 corners	60.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Melbourne Victory under 5.5 corners	55.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Melbourne Victory over 5.5 corners	45.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Melbourne Victory under 4.5 corners	40.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Melbourne Victory over 6.5 corners	31.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Melbourne Victory under 3.5 corners	25.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Melbourne Victory under 2.5 corners	12.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory under 3.5 goals	86.6%	87.8%	95.0%	0.92×	1.14
Melbourne Victory over 0.5 goals	85.8%	87.8%	77.1%	1.14×	1.14
Melbourne Victory under 2.5 goals	69.0%	68.0%	85.0%	0.80×	1.47
Melbourne Victory over 1.5 goals	58.0%	59.4%	43.9%	1.35×	1.68
Melbourne Victory under 1.5 goals	42.0%	40.6%	56.1%	0.72×	2.46
Melbourne Victory over 2.5 goals	31.0%	32.0%	15.0%	2.13×	3.13
Melbourne Victory under 0.5 goals	14.2%	12.2%	22.9%	0.53×	8.23
Melbourne Victory over 3.5 goals	13.4%	12.2%	5.0%	2.43×	8.23

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory under 1.5 in 1st half	81.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Melbourne Victory over 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Melbourne Victory under 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Melbourne Victory over 1.5 in 1st half	18.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory scores more in 2nd half	45.0%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Melbourne Victory scores equally in both	30.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.94
Melbourne Victory scores more in 1st half	24.5%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC (away no bet)	51.8%	51.5%	58.2%	0.88×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	48.2%	48.5%	41.8%	1.16×	2.06

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory even goals	51.0%	52.8%	55.0%	0.96×	1.90
Melbourne Victory odd goals	49.0%	47.2%	45.0%	1.05×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.9%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.1%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.6%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.6%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Melbourne Victory to score 2+ in a row	48.6%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Wellington Phoenix FC to score 2+ in a row	24.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Melbourne Victory to score 3+ in a row	20.9%	19.4%	—	—	5.14
Wellington Phoenix FC to score 3+ in a row	6.4%	5.6%	—	—	17.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC corners (+3.5)	83.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Melbourne Victory corners (+3.5)	80.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Wellington Phoenix FC corners (+2.5)	76.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Melbourne Victory corners (+2.5)	72.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Wellington Phoenix FC corners (+1.5)	67.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Melbourne Victory corners (+1.5)	63.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Wellington Phoenix FC corners (-1.5)	36.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Melbourne Victory corners (-1.5)	32.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Wellington Phoenix FC corners (-2.5)	27.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Melbourne Victory corners (-2.5)	23.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Wellington Phoenix FC corners (-3.5)	19.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Melbourne Victory corners (-3.5)	16.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
0-8 corners	26.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	66.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	64.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	56.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	53.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	46.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	43.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	36.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	33.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	26.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Under 7.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.1%	11.4%	11.8%	0.97×	8.74
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.50
0-2	7.9%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
0-3	5.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.15×	13.50
1-3	6.3%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.50
2-1	6.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.50
Any other score	5.6%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.50
1-0	5.0%	1.7%	8.6%	0.20×	58.29
0-0	4.3%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.29
0-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.31
1-4	3.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.30
2-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
2-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.31
3-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.31
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.80×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (2nd half DNB)	67.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Wellington Phoenix FC (2nd half DNB)	32.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory leading at HT (DNB)	62.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Wellington Phoenix FC leading at HT (DNB)	37.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC or Melbourne Victory (12)	77.8%	75.5%	72.9%	1.04×	1.33
Melbourne Victory or draw (X2)	76.1%	75.5%	62.1%	1.21×	1.33
Wellington Phoenix FC or draw (1X)	46.2%	48.5%	64.6%	0.75×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or draw at HT	77.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Wellington Phoenix FC or draw at HT	62.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Wellington Phoenix FC or Melbourne Victory at HT	60.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or draw (1UP)	76.1%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Wellington Phoenix FC or draw (1UP)	46.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory or draw in 2nd half	77.8%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Wellington Phoenix FC or Melbourne Victory in 2nd half	69.1%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Wellington Phoenix FC or draw in 2nd half	53.1%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	42.0%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (DNB)	69.2%	67.3%	48.3%	1.39×	1.49
Wellington Phoenix FC (DNB)	30.8%	32.7%	51.7%	0.63×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to score first	58.6%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Wellington Phoenix FC to score first	37.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.25

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.0%	56.5%	61.1%	0.93×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.0%	43.5%	38.9%	1.12×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.9%	47.1%	49.6%	0.95×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.2%	33.6%	30.4%	1.11×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	10.8%	12.3%	8.9%	1.38×	8.12
Both score & under 2.5	10.1%	12.3%	11.8%	1.05×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.7%	79.9%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.3%	20.1%	22.1%	0.91×	4.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.5%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	27.1%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Both score 1st half only	14.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	7.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.9%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	38.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.4%	42.1%	40.7%	1.03×	2.38
4-6 goals	35.1%	35.1%	35.0%	1.00×	2.85
0-1 goals	17.2%	20.3%	21.1%	0.96×	4.93
7+ goals	4.4%	1.8%	3.9%	0.47×	54.44

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to score 3+	31.0%	33.7%	15.0%	2.25×	2.96
Melbourne Victory to score exactly 1	27.8%	27.4%	33.6%	0.82×	3.65
Melbourne Victory to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.4%	29.3%	0.94×	3.65
Melbourne Victory to score exactly 0	14.2%	12.9%	22.9%	0.56×	7.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.6%	33.6%	1.06×	2.81
Wellington Phoenix FC to score exactly 0	29.0%	26.5%	21.1%	1.26×	3.77
Wellington Phoenix FC to score exactly 2	22.2%	23.2%	23.9%	0.97×	4.31
Wellington Phoenix FC to score 3+	12.9%	14.4%	22.1%	0.65×	6.95

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Melbourne Victory leading at HT	37.9%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Wellington Phoenix FC leading at HT	22.7%	20.0%	—	—	4.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory -1: 1	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Melbourne Victory -1: 2	31.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Melbourne Victory -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (0:1)	76.1%	73.6%	62.1%	1.18×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	14.2%	13.8%	18.6%	0.75×	7.23
Wellington Phoenix FC (0:1)	9.7%	9.3%	19.6%	0.48×	10.72

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (0:2)	90.3%	90.7%	80.4%	1.13×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.6%	7.7%	8.2%	0.94×	12.98
Wellington Phoenix FC (0:2)	3.1%	3.8%	11.8%	0.32×	26.42

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (0:3)	96.9%	96.6%	88.2%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	8.2%	0.29×	42.13
Wellington Phoenix FC (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	3.9%	0.60×	42.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	96.1%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.68
Wellington Phoenix FC (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	83.73

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC (1:0)	46.2%	49.3%	64.6%	0.76×	2.03
Melbourne Victory (1:0)	31.4%	30.1%	14.3%	2.10×	3.33
Draw (1:0)	22.4%	21.8%	21.4%	1.02×	4.58

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC (2:0)	68.6%	70.9%	85.7%	0.83×	1.41
Draw (2:0)	16.4%	15.6%	10.4%	1.50×	6.43
Melbourne Victory (2:0)	15.0%	15.5%	4.3%	3.62×	6.45

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.5%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	22.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC to concede	85.8%	85.9%	77.1%	1.11×	1.16
Wellington Phoenix FC clean sheet	14.2%	14.1%	22.9%	0.62×	7.09

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC to concede in 1st half	54.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Wellington Phoenix FC clean sheet in 1st half	45.8%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC to concede in 2nd half	69.0%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Wellington Phoenix FC clean sheet in 2nd half	31.0%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC over 2.5 corners	88.7%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Wellington Phoenix FC over 3.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Wellington Phoenix FC under 6.5 corners	65.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Wellington Phoenix FC over 4.5 corners	63.3%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Wellington Phoenix FC under 5.5 corners	51.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Wellington Phoenix FC over 5.5 corners	48.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Wellington Phoenix FC under 4.5 corners	36.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Wellington Phoenix FC over 6.5 corners	35.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Wellington Phoenix FC under 3.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Wellington Phoenix FC under 2.5 corners	11.3%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC under 3.5 goals	96.3%	96.3%	89.6%	1.07×	1.04
Wellington Phoenix FC under 2.5 goals	87.1%	87.2%	77.9%	1.12×	1.15
Wellington Phoenix FC over 0.5 goals	71.0%	74.2%	78.9%	0.94×	1.35
Wellington Phoenix FC under 1.5 goals	64.9%	63.5%	54.3%	1.17×	1.57
Wellington Phoenix FC over 1.5 goals	35.1%	36.5%	45.7%	0.80×	2.74
Wellington Phoenix FC under 0.5 goals	29.0%	25.8%	21.1%	1.22×	3.88
Wellington Phoenix FC over 2.5 goals	12.9%	12.8%	22.1%	0.58×	7.82
Wellington Phoenix FC over 3.5 goals	3.7%	3.7%	10.4%	0.35×	27.28

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC under 1.5 in 1st half	90.0%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Wellington Phoenix FC under 0.5 in 1st half	58.7%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Wellington Phoenix FC over 0.5 in 1st half	41.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Wellington Phoenix FC over 1.5 in 1st half	10.0%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC scores equally in both	41.0%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Wellington Phoenix FC scores more in 2nd half	34.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Wellington Phoenix FC scores more in 1st half	24.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory (home no bet)	70.8%	66.6%	56.6%	1.18×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	29.2%	33.4%	43.4%	0.77×	2.99

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC even goals	54.2%	50.6%	53.2%	0.95×	1.98
Wellington Phoenix FC odd goals	45.8%	49.4%	46.8%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 0-1	21.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 1-0	14.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	11.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-2	8.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
Any other HT score	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 1-2	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.38
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.62

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory at HT / Melbourne Victory at FT	31.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Draw at HT / Melbourne Victory at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Wellington Phoenix FC at HT / Wellington Phoenix FC at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Wellington Phoenix FC at FT	8.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Wellington Phoenix FC at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Melbourne Victory at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Wellington Phoenix FC at HT / Melbourne Victory at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Melbourne Victory at HT / Wellington Phoenix FC at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to score last	58.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Wellington Phoenix FC to score last	37.2%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.25

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.7%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Melbourne Victory to lead by 1 at any time	69.3%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Wellington Phoenix FC to lead by 1 at any time	43.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Melbourne Victory to lead by 2 at any time	39.2%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Melbourne Victory to lead by 3 at any time	18.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Wellington Phoenix FC to lead by 2 at any time	15.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Wellington Phoenix FC to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	1.7%	—	—	59.84

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC most corners	47.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Melbourne Victory most corners	42.3%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	88.2%	0.99×	1.15
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.6%	75.4%	1.04×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.0%	72.4%	76.4%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.4%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.4%	59.1%	54.6%	1.08×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.3%	59.1%	56.8%	1.04×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.4%	53.1%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.4%	43.6%	40.7%	1.07×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	39.6%	1.10×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.1%	39.2%	35.0%	1.12×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.0%	35.3%	37.1%	0.95×	2.83
4-5 goals	29.1%	30.3%	31.8%	0.95×	3.30
5-6 goals	17.3%	18.7%	15.4%	1.22×	5.34
7+ goals	4.4%	2.6%	3.9%	0.65×	39.04

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory never behind	51.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Wellington Phoenix FC never behind	26.5%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	50.0%	1.02×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	50.0%	0.98×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.7%	95.4%	95.0%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.6%	87.6%	92.9%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.8%	82.3%	78.9%	1.04×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.3%	77.4%	81.1%	0.95×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.7%	61.7%	58.2%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.6%	61.7%	61.4%	1.00×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.4%	38.3%	38.6%	0.99×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.3%	38.3%	41.8%	0.92×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.7%	22.6%	18.9%	1.20×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.7%	21.1%	0.84×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.4%	12.4%	7.1%	1.73×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	4.3%	4.6%	5.0%	0.91×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.4%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.3%	86.7%	91.9%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.2%	75.9%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.6%	72.5%	76.4%	0.95×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.8%	51.9%	48.0%	1.08×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.2%	48.1%	52.0%	0.92×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.4%	27.5%	23.6%	1.17×	3.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.8%	24.1%	26.6%	0.91×	4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.7%	13.3%	8.1%	1.64×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.6%	2.8%	4.1%	0.69×	35.79

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.4%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.0%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.2%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.0%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.6%	11.1%	—	—	9.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.6%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.4%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC not to score in both halves	79.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Melbourne Victory not to score in both halves	62.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Melbourne Victory to score in both halves	37.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Wellington Phoenix FC to score in both halves	20.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.0%	60.2%	61.1%	0.99×	1.66
Only Melbourne Victory scores	24.8%	22.3%	16.4%	1.36×	4.49
Only Wellington Phoenix FC scores	10.0%	7.2%	18.2%	0.40×	13.89
Neither team scores	4.3%	4.7%	5.0%	0.93×	21.42

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.0%	1.13×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.1%	22.6%	21.1%	1.07×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.8%	17.4%	20.0%	0.87×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.9%	12.1%	16.4%	0.74×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	11.3%	12.1%	12.1%	1.00×	8.28
6 or more goals	10.4%	12.1%	7.1%	1.69×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	4.3%	4.5%	5.0%	0.89×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.3%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	14.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.12

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	28.7%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	15.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC not to win both halves	95.0%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Melbourne Victory not to win both halves	82.2%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Melbourne Victory to win both halves	17.8%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Wellington Phoenix FC to win both halves	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.77

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory to win either half	67.0%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Wellington Phoenix FC to win neither half	60.2%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Wellington Phoenix FC to win either half	39.8%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
Melbourne Victory to win neither half	33.0%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wellington Phoenix FC not to win to nil	90.0%	92.0%	81.8%	1.12×	1.09
Melbourne Victory not to win to nil	75.2%	78.1%	83.6%	0.93×	1.28
Melbourne Victory to win to nil	24.8%	21.9%	16.4%	1.33×	4.56
Wellington Phoenix FC to win to nil	10.0%	8.0%	18.2%	0.44×	12.45

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melbourne Victory by 1	22.4%	24.2%	21.4%	1.13×	4.14
Draw	22.2%	24.2%	27.1%	0.89×	4.14
Melbourne Victory by 2	16.4%	16.9%	10.4%	1.63×	5.91
Melbourne Victory by 3+	15.0%	16.9%	4.3%	3.95×	5.91
Wellington Phoenix FC by 1	14.2%	11.8%	18.6%	0.63×	8.49
Wellington Phoenix FC by 2	6.6%	7.2%	8.2%	0.88×	13.81
Wellington Phoenix FC by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	11.8%	0.23×	36.66