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Werder Bremen v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 19 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Werder Bremen
0–2
1.15 – 1.32 xG
Augsburg
Shots
20 – 9
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
17 – 6
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.44 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.15 – +0.68
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Samuel Essende 4' — goalSamuel Essende 45' — goal
Werder Bremen 1.15 xGAugsburg 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Samuel Essende 4' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 12' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 26' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Marco Grüll 26' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 33' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 42' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 45' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 45' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alexis Claude Maurice 47' — Missed Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Mitchell Weiser 48' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Marco Grüll 54' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 54' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arne Maier 58' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alexis Claude Maurice 62' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mert Kömür 65' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Cédric Zesiger 66' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Skelly Alvero 71' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Jens Stage 74' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Jens Stage 76' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mitchell Weiser 80' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Phillip Tietz 82' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Issa Kabore 84' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Oliver Burke 84' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Oliver Burke 86' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Romano Schmid 87' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Oliver Burke 88' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 89' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Julián Malatini 93' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Oliver Burke 93' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Werder Bremen attacking right Augsburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
12' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Leonardo Bittencourt
26' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Marvin Ducksch
26' Werder Bremen Marco Grüll 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Romano Schmid
33' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.10 Open Play — Blocked Shot —
42' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Leonardo Bittencourt
45' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.08 Open Play — Goal Dimitris Giannoulis
45' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Derrick Köhn
47' Augsburg Alexis Claude Maurice 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Dimitris Giannoulis
48' Werder Bremen Mitchell Weiser 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Derrick Köhn
54' Werder Bremen Marco Grüll 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mitchell Weiser
54' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Leonardo Bittencourt
58' Augsburg Arne Maier 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Elvis Rexhbecaj
62' Augsburg Alexis Claude Maurice 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dimitris Giannoulis
65' Augsburg Mert Kömür 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Phillip Tietz
66' Augsburg Cédric Zesiger 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Henri Koudossou
71' Werder Bremen Skelly Alvero 0.03 Set Piece — Missed Shot Romano Schmid
74' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.07 Set Piece — Missed Shot Romano Schmid
76' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.01 Open Play — Missed Shot Marco Grüll
80' Werder Bremen Mitchell Weiser 0.07 Set Piece — Missed Shot Romano Schmid
82' Augsburg Phillip Tietz 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mert Kömür
84' Werder Bremen Issa Kabore 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Julián Malatini
84' Werder Bremen Oliver Burke 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
86' Werder Bremen Oliver Burke 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
87' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jens Stage
88' Werder Bremen Oliver Burke 0.01 Open Play — Missed Shot Issa Kabore
89' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marco Friedl
93' Werder Bremen Julián Malatini 0.13 From Corner — Blocked Shot Romano Schmid
93' Werder Bremen Oliver Burke 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jens Stage

Players

Augsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Cédric Zesiger DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Kristijan Jakic MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Chrislain Matsima DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dimitris Giannoulis DML 90 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.67 0.74
Elvis Rexhbecaj MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Finn Dahmen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Henri Koudossou DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.48
Alexis Claude Maurice AMC 82 0 0 2 0 0.59 0.00 0.74
Samuel Essende FW 70 2 0 3 0 0.48 0.00 0.96
Arne Maier AMC 70 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.12
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Phillip Tietz Sub 20 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.07 0.16
Mert Kömür Sub 20 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.09 0.16
Noahkai Banks Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Fredrik Jensen Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marius Wolf Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jens Stage MC 90 0 0 6 2 0.34 0.08 0.27
Mitchell Weiser DMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.08 0.39
Romano Schmid MC 90 0 0 2 5 0.06 0.44 0.42
Michael Zetterer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Friedl DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.31
Anthony Jung DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Marco Grüll FW 87 0 0 2 1 0.21 0.01 0.32
Marvin Ducksch FW 77 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.07 0.19
Derrick Köhn DML 77 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.13
Niklas Stark DC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Leonardo Bittencourt MC 69 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.11 0.31
Skelly Alvero Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.13
Julián Malatini Sub 13 0 0 1 1 0.13 0.04 0.16
Issa Kabore Sub 13 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.01 0.14
Justin Njinmah Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Oliver Burke Sub 3 0 0 4 0 0.19 0.00 0.12
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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