Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-0.78 – +1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
7.5%
Draw
14.6%
Bayern Munich win
77.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.85–2.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–2.60 | 1-2 9% | 72% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 0.78 xGBayern Munich 1.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 5' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 24' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 28' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 32' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 39' |
Werder Bremen |
Felix Agu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Felix Agu |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 63' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 65' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 69' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alphonso Davies |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 72' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 82' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Grüll FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.58 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| Cameron Puertas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Justin Njinmah MR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Felix Agu ML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Jens Stage MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Niklas Stark DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Julián Malatini Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yukinari Sugawara Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.23 | 1.06 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Lennart Karl AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Konrad Laimer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Urbig Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamal Musiala Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| Alphonso Davies Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |