Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 17
On target
3 – 9
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.90
Goals − xG
-0.53 – -1.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
21.9%
Draw
23.7%
Borussia Dortmund win
54.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.64 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 0.53 xGBorussia Dortmund 3.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuele Inácio |
| 5' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Samuele Inácio | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 6' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isaac Schmidt |
| 14' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Salim Musah |
| 25' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 25' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.68 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 29' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 30' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 32' |
Werder Bremen |
Salim Musah | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Werder Bremen |
Isaac Schmidt | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuele Inácio |
| 50' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jobe Bellingham |
| 51' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 52' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuele Inácio |
| 58' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 60' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Salim Musah |
| 65' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Samuele Inácio | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jobe Bellingham |
| 67' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Salim Musah |
| 71' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrice Covic |
| 84' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 94' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Yan Couto | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Karim Adeyemi |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romano Schmid ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Justin Njinmah MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Salim Musah FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Isaac Schmidt DR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marco Friedl Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Luca Reggiani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.07 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| Samuele Inácio AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.54 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |