Werder Bremen v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 13
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
17 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.95 – 0.86
Goals − xG
-1.15 – +1.68
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
44.7%
Draw
26.8%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
28.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.82–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 3.15 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 2.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 10' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tim Kleindienst | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nathan N'Goumou Minpol |
| 12' |
 Werder Bremen |
Anthony Jung | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jens Stage |
| 17' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Hack |
| 24' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | André Silva |
| 25' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joe Scally |
| 27' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Robin Hack |
| 33' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Hack |
| 33' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | André Silva |
| 35' |
Werder Bremen |
Issa Kabore | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 35' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 39' |
Werder Bremen |
Felix Agu | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 39' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Kabore |
| 42' |
Werder Bremen |
Issa Kabore | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André Silva |
| 45' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Robin Hack |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Julian Weigl | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alassane Pléa |
| 52' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Kleindienst |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Issa Kabore | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 61' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Felix Agu |
| 62' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Kabore |
| 67' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Bittencourt |
| 74' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Felix Agu |
| 77' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 80' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tim Kleindienst | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alassane Pléa |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
| 85' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 87' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Kleindienst |
| 88' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Stage |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Felix Agu |
| 94' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kleindienst FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 0.77 |
| Robin Hack AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.63 | 1.27 |
| Julian Weigl DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 1.10 |
| Philipp Sander DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Ko Itakura DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alassane Pléa AMC | 87 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.19 | 0.64 | 1.43 |
| Jonas Omlin GK | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nathan N'Goumou Minpol AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Tomás Cvancara Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Tiago Pereira Cardoso Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Friedrich Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rocco Reitz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Agu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 1.78 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 1.05 |
| Romano Schmid MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.85 |
| Anthony Jung DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.35 | 1.52 |
| Issa Kabore DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| Milos Veljkovic DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| André Silva FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.49 | 0.95 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Marvin Ducksch Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Marco Friedl Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |