Werder Bremen v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.00 – -0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
40.9%
Draw
29.4%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
29.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen have scored 16 from 14.5 expected and conceded 20 from 20.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLLLWDWDDW last 10
scored 16
from 14.5 xG
conceded 20
from 20.1 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.60 | 1-1 9% | 69% | 69% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 1.00 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 13' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 27' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Friedl | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 33' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 48' |
Werder Bremen |
Karim Coulibaly | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 52' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 54' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 60' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Franck Honorat |
| 72' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 78' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 80' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 82' |
Werder Bremen |
Isaac Schmidt | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Stage |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 86' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Stage |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Isaac Schmidt | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 90' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Netz |
| 91' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Friedl |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Olivier Deman |
| 95' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Franck Honorat MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| Fabio Chiarodia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Netz DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Joe Scally DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Florian Neuhaus ML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.64 |
| Marvin Friedrich Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Jens Castrop Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier Deman DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.57 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.42 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.44 |
| Julián Malatini DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Justin Njinmah FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Jovan Milosevic Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.12 |