Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.47
Goals − xG
+1.40 – +0.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
42.6%
Draw
27.1%
Hamburger SV win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen have scored 14 from 12.6 expected and conceded 19 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLLLWDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 12.6 xG
conceded 19
from 20.2 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWDLLLWWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.9 xG
conceded 21
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.07 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 1.60 xGHamburger SV 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.40 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 6' |
 Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 7' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jovan Milosevic |
| 10' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 20' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 25' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Warmed Omari |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Robert Glatzel |
| 31' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 36' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 40' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 44' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 47' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 51' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 54' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 56' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cameron Puertas |
| 58' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 59' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 67' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 71' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Hamburger SV |
Warmed Omari | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Romano Schmid |
| 94' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 95' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 96' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | William Mikelbrencis |
| 100' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romano Schmid ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.70 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| Justin Njinmah MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.95 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1.03 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Jens Stage MC | 70 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Jovan Milosevic FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Niklas Stark Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Glatzel FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| William Mikelbrencis MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Miro Muheim ML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Albert Grønbæk MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Philip Otele Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Bakery Jatta Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damion Downs Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |