Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 27 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
27 – 12
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
18 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-1.43 – +1.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
34.8%
Draw
27.1%
Hoffenheim win
38.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.54 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.71 | 1-1 9% | 68% | 68% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 1.43 xGHoffenheim 0.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 2' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 10' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 20' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 24' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 31' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 33' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 43' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrej Kramaric |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 58' |
Werder Bremen |
Jovan Milosevic | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Malatini |
| 69' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 74' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Patrice Covic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Patrice Covic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 84' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 85' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Mbangula |
| 87' |
Werder Bremen |
Karim Coulibaly | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 91' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Stage |
| 95' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 96' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 98' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.62 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.48 |
| Jovan Milosevic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Romano Schmid MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Senne Lynen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Julián Malatini DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Justin Njinmah FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Olivier Deman DML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.49 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grischa Prömel MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alexander Prass ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Andrej Kramaric MC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Wouter Burger MC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Ozan Kabak Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Akpoguma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |