Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Werder Bremen

10:30

Hoffenheim

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 1,303h before kick-off

Werder Bremen win

28.3%

model 32.4%

Draw

27.5%

model 25.1%

Hoffenheim win

44.2%

model 42.5%

282744

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.8%
0-1 9.2%
1-2 9.0%
1-0 7.8%
2-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.1%	Under 2.5	46.9%
BTTS yes	56.5%	BTTS no	43.5%
Werder Bremen 1+	72.4%	Werder Bremen 2+	36.9%
Hoffenheim 1+	78.0%	Hoffenheim 2+	44.6%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 51%

62.7% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 3105 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Werder Bremen not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 80%

82.6% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 908 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1432.
Hoffenheim have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 2.14.
Away from home Hoffenheim average 1.61 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Hoffenheim have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.3% for Werder Bremen and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.29 for Werder Bremen and 1.51 for Hoffenheim.

Why Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while Hoffenheim have allowed 1.90. At home Werder Bremen average 0.94 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.29 to 1.51. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Hoffenheim can win

Hoffenheim carry the stronger rating, 1539 Elo against 1432. Hoffenheim have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 2.14. Away from home Hoffenheim average 1.61 xG a match.

Key players

Werder Bremen's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Romano Schmid (0.44), Jens Stage (0.30), Niclas Füllkrug (0.28). Hoffenheim's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tim Lemperle (0.40), Andrej Kramaric (0.39), Fisnik Asllani (0.36).

Availability

2 of Werder Bremen's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Werder Bremen's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Hoffenheim's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Hoffenheim's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Werder Bremen: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Hoffenheim: 59% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 14.5 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Hoffenheim are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWDLLLLW last 10 scored 12 from 9.3 xG conceded 18 from 21.4 xG

Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLDWWDWLLL last 10 scored 15 from 17.9 xG conceded 24 from 19.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	322543	1.29–1.51	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332443	1.44–1.67	1-1 11%	60%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to win	40.2%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Werder Bremen to win	35.5%	36.4%	41.6%	0.87×	2.75
Draw	24.3%	24.5%	24.8%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim & both teams score	21.7%	21.9%	18.4%	1.19×	4.57
Werder Bremen & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	22.2%	0.81×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
Hoffenheim & not both score	18.6%	17.9%	15.5%	1.16×	5.58
Werder Bremen & not both score	16.2%	17.9%	19.6%	0.91×	5.58
Draw & not both score	5.0%	4.9%	5.9%	0.83×	20.53

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim & over 1.5	32.5%	30.9%	27.8%	1.11×	3.24
Werder Bremen & over 1.5	28.3%	26.0%	35.4%	0.73×	3.84
Hoffenheim & over 2.5	26.5%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Hoffenheim & under 3.5	25.6%	26.0%	19.8%	1.32×	3.84
Werder Bremen & over 2.5	23.1%	21.7%	29.4%	0.74×	4.62
Werder Bremen & under 3.5	23.0%	21.7%	21.5%	1.01×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	15.5%	1.16×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	15.5%	1.16×	5.56
Hoffenheim & over 3.5	14.7%	12.9%	14.1%	0.91×	7.77
Hoffenheim & under 2.5	13.8%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.77
Werder Bremen & under 2.5	12.4%	12.9%	12.3%	1.04×	7.77
Werder Bremen & over 3.5	12.5%	12.9%	20.3%	0.64×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Hoffenheim & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Werder Bremen & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.3%	1.24×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	4.8%	5.9%	0.82×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (1UP)	58.0%	58.1%	52.9%	1.10×	1.72
Werder Bremen (1UP)	54.0%	52.7%	59.6%	0.88×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (2UP)	40.2%	47.5%	36.6%	1.30×	2.11
Werder Bremen (2UP)	35.5%	37.0%	45.0%	0.82×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to win 2nd half	38.1%	36.1%	37.1%	0.97×	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.7%	34.6%	33.4%	1.03×	2.89
Hoffenheim to win 2nd half	27.2%	26.3%	29.6%	0.89×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (+2.5)	93.9%	92.1%	88.3%	1.04×	1.09
Hoffenheim (+1.5)	83.5%	82.4%	75.3%	1.09×	1.21
Hoffenheim (+0.5)	64.5%	62.9%	58.4%	1.08×	1.59
Werder Bremen (+0.5)	59.8%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Hoffenheim (-0.5)	40.2%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Werder Bremen (-0.5)	35.5%	37.1%	41.6%	0.89×	2.70
Werder Bremen (-1.5)	16.5%	17.6%	24.7%	0.71×	5.69
Werder Bremen (-2.5)	6.2%	7.9%	11.7%	0.68×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to concede	76.4%	79.0%	78.8%	1.00×	1.27
Hoffenheim clean sheet	23.6%	21.0%	21.2%	0.99×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim clean sheet in 1st half	58.6%	58.5%	48.2%	1.21×	1.71
Hoffenheim to concede in 1st half	41.4%	41.5%	51.8%	0.80×	2.41

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals	79.5%	76.3%	79.0%	0.97×	1.31
Hoffenheim over 0.5 goals	78.8%	76.2%	74.7%	1.02×	1.31
Hoffenheim under 1.5 goals	54.0%	53.7%	57.1%	0.94×	1.86
Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals	46.0%	46.3%	42.9%	1.08×	2.16
Hoffenheim under 0.5 goals	21.2%	23.8%	25.3%	0.94×	4.21
Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals	20.5%	23.7%	21.0%	1.13×	4.21
Hoffenheim over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	7.4%	1.03×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim under 1.5 in 1st half	79.7%	76.3%	85.7%	0.89×	1.31
Hoffenheim over 0.5 in 1st half	56.6%	62.3%	45.6%	1.37×	1.61
Hoffenheim under 0.5 in 1st half	43.4%	37.7%	54.4%	0.69×	2.65
Hoffenheim over 1.5 in 1st half	20.3%	23.7%	14.3%	1.66×	4.22

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen (away no bet)	59.4%	57.5%	62.6%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.6%	42.5%	37.4%	1.14×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim even goals	52.2%	52.8%	53.2%	0.99×	1.89
Hoffenheim odd goals	47.8%	47.2%	46.8%	1.01×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.8%	82.8%	75.8%	1.09×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.2%	17.2%	24.2%	0.71×	5.83

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.9%	68.7%	72.3%	0.95×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.1%	31.3%	27.7%	1.13×	3.20

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.3%	59.8%	66.9%	0.89×	1.67
Hoffenheim to score 2+ in a row	36.2%	36.4%	34.7%	1.05×	2.75
Werder Bremen to score 2+ in a row	32.4%	29.0%	42.3%	0.68×	3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.3%	19.5%	29.5%	0.66×	5.12
Hoffenheim to score 3+ in a row	12.4%	12.2%	12.8%	0.95×	8.21
Werder Bremen to score 3+ in a row	10.3%	12.1%	17.6%	0.69×	8.25

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.2%	11.5%	9.8%	1.17×	8.73
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
0-1	7.8%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.48
1-0	7.2%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
0-2	6.0%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.48
2-0	5.2%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-2	6.3%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
0-0	5.0%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.46
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.47
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.48
1-3	4.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.46
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.48
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.47
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.48
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.47
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.47
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.48
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.48
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.80×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.49
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT (DNB)	64.6%	66.1%	44.5%	1.49×	1.51
Werder Bremen leading at HT (DNB)	35.4%	33.9%	55.5%	0.61×	2.95

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen or Hoffenheim (12)	75.7%	75.5%	75.2%	1.01×	1.32
Hoffenheim or draw (X2)	64.5%	63.6%	58.4%	1.09×	1.57
Werder Bremen or draw (1X)	59.8%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or draw at HT	78.1%	79.9%	63.4%	1.26×	1.25
Werder Bremen or Hoffenheim at HT	61.9%	62.1%	65.8%	0.94×	1.61
Werder Bremen or draw at HT	60.0%	62.0%	70.7%	0.88×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim or draw (1UP)	64.5%	71.8%	65.1%	1.10×	1.39
Werder Bremen or draw (1UP)	59.8%	62.9%	73.5%	0.86×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen or draw in 2nd half	72.8%	73.7%	70.4%	1.05×	1.36
Werder Bremen or Hoffenheim in 2nd half	65.3%	65.4%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
Hoffenheim or draw in 2nd half	61.9%	63.9%	62.9%	1.02×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.6%	58.1%	53.7%	1.08×	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.4%	41.9%	46.3%	0.90×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (DNB)	53.1%	50.9%	44.7%	1.14×	1.96
Werder Bremen (DNB)	46.9%	49.1%	55.3%	0.89×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score first	49.2%	45.6%	43.6%	1.05×	2.19
Werder Bremen to score first	45.8%	45.4%	50.7%	0.90×	2.20
No goal scored	5.0%	4.3%	5.9%	0.74×	23.11

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.2%	56.5%	59.3%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.8%	43.5%	40.7%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.0%	44.3%	49.7%	0.89×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.2%	34.3%	28.2%	1.22×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	11.2%	12.3%	9.8%	1.26×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.4%	12.7%	0.66×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.5%	83.0%	79.7%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	19.5%	17.0%	20.3%	0.84×	5.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.4%	67.7%	65.6%	1.03×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.6%	32.3%	34.4%	0.94×	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.1%	56.0%	51.7%	1.08×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	23.5%	20.8%	27.7%	0.75×	4.80
Both score 1st half only	16.3%	15.6%	14.1%	1.10×	6.42
Both score in both halves	7.2%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.6%	81.5%	79.2%	1.03×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.4%	18.5%	20.8%	0.89×	5.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.9%	57.5%	66.9%	0.86×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.1%	42.5%	33.1%	1.28×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.1%	38.8%	1.09×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.9%	30.7%	39.9%	0.77×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.0%	20.2%	17.9%	1.13×	4.95
7+ goals	3.3%	1.8%	3.8%	0.48×	54.46

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score exactly 1	32.9%	33.8%	32.0%	1.06×	2.96
Hoffenheim to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.4%	22.0%	1.25×	3.65
Hoffenheim to score exactly 0	21.2%	22.4%	25.3%	0.88×	4.47
Hoffenheim to score 3+	20.5%	22.4%	21.0%	1.06×	4.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to score exactly 1	34.1%	32.7%	29.1%	1.12×	3.06
Werder Bremen to score exactly 2	24.6%	23.3%	22.6%	1.03×	4.30
Werder Bremen to score exactly 0	23.6%	23.2%	21.2%	1.10×	4.30
Werder Bremen to score 3+	17.7%	18.9%	27.4%	0.69×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim leading at HT	40.0%	38.0%	29.3%	1.30×	2.63
Draw at HT	38.1%	37.9%	34.2%	1.11×	2.64
Werder Bremen leading at HT	21.9%	20.1%	36.6%	0.55×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim -1: 1	59.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Hoffenheim -1: X	20.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Hoffenheim -1: 2	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (0:1)	64.5%	61.5%	58.4%	1.05×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.0%	17.8%	17.1%	1.04×	5.63
Werder Bremen (0:1)	16.5%	17.8%	24.7%	0.72×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (0:2)	83.5%	82.8%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.4%	11.0%	13.1%	0.83×	9.13
Werder Bremen (0:2)	6.2%	7.7%	11.7%	0.66×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (0:3)	93.9%	92.6%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.3%	2.4%	5.1%	0.47×	42.07
Werder Bremen (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	93.2%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	5.2%	0.23×	83.52
Werder Bremen (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.7%	0.69×	83.63

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen (1:0)	59.8%	58.2%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	20.4%	21.8%	16.5%	1.32×	4.60
Hoffenheim (1:0)	19.9%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen (2:0)	80.1%	84.5%	82.6%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.0%	10.4%	10.0%	1.04×	9.64
Hoffenheim (2:0)	7.9%	6.5%	7.6%	0.85×	15.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.7%	49.6%	46.9%	1.06×	2.02
1st half highest scoring	32.2%	28.9%	26.3%	1.10×	3.46
Halves equal	24.1%	24.1%	26.9%	0.90×	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to concede	78.8%	76.0%	74.7%	1.02×	1.32
Werder Bremen clean sheet	21.2%	24.0%	25.3%	0.95×	4.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen to concede in 1st half	56.6%	62.3%	45.6%	1.37×	1.61
Werder Bremen clean sheet in 1st half	43.4%	37.7%	54.4%	0.69×	2.65

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Werder Bremen under 2.5 goals	82.3%	82.1%	72.6%	1.13×	1.22
Werder Bremen over 0.5 goals	76.4%	77.7%	78.8%	0.99×	1.29
Werder Bremen under 1.5 goals	57.7%	58.8%	50.2%	1.17×	1.70
Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals	42.3%	41.2%	49.8%	0.83×	2.43
Werder Bremen under 0.5 goals	23.6%	22.3%	21.2%	1.05×	4.49
Werder Bremen over 2.5 goals	17.7%	17.9%	27.4%	0.65×	5.59
Werder Bremen over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen under 1.5 in 1st half	89.9%	89.9%	80.8%	1.11×	1.11
Werder Bremen under 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	58.2%	48.2%	1.21×	1.72
Werder Bremen over 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	41.8%	51.8%	0.81×	2.39
Werder Bremen over 1.5 in 1st half	10.1%	10.1%	19.2%	0.53×	9.87

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim (home no bet)	62.4%	60.2%	57.6%	1.05×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.6%	39.8%	42.4%	0.94×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen even goals	52.8%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Werder Bremen odd goals	47.2%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.4%	28.8%	23.3%	1.24×	3.48
HT 0-1	21.2%	24.1%	16.5%	1.46×	4.15
HT 1-0	13.6%	10.9%	19.3%	0.57×	9.14
HT 1-1	11.3%	10.9%	9.8%	1.11×	9.17
HT 0-2	8.8%	7.1%	7.1%	1.00×	14.02
Any other HT score	6.9%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.05
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.26
HT 2-0	3.6%	2.3%	9.5%	0.24×	43.34
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.3%	4.3%	0.54×	43.39
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.3%	1.3%	1.81×	43.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	28.4%	26.9%	20.3%	1.32×	3.72
Werder Bremen at HT / Werder Bremen at FT	17.0%	16.8%	28.1%	0.60×	5.97
Draw at HT / Werder Bremen at FT	14.5%	12.7%	10.6%	1.20×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.2%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.89
Draw at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	10.4%	12.7%	10.0%	1.27×	7.90
Hoffenheim at HT / Draw at FT	7.5%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.66
Hoffenheim at HT / Werder Bremen at FT	4.0%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.81
Werder Bremen at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	5.1%	0.68×	28.83
Werder Bremen at HT / Hoffenheim at FT	1.4%	3.5%	3.8%	0.91×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to score last	49.2%	46.8%	44.5%	1.05×	2.14
Werder Bremen to score last	45.8%	46.6%	49.8%	0.94×	2.15
No goal scored	5.0%	4.3%	5.9%	0.74×	23.11

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Hoffenheim to lead by 1 at any time	58.0%	55.1%	52.9%	1.04×	1.81
Werder Bremen to lead by 1 at any time	54.0%	50.7%	59.6%	0.85×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.0%	50.6%	55.9%	0.90×	1.98
Hoffenheim to lead by 2 at any time	27.0%	25.4%	23.6%	1.08×	3.93
Werder Bremen to lead by 2 at any time	23.3%	19.6%	33.1%	0.59×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.4%	14.9%	25.7%	0.58×	6.70
Hoffenheim to lead by 3 at any time	10.2%	10.4%	10.3%	1.01×	9.59
Werder Bremen to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.7%	15.5%	0.43×	15.02

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.7%	78.6%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.6%	78.6%	72.3%	1.09×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.7%	72.4%	71.2%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.4%	60.3%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.8%	59.2%	50.8%	1.17×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.3%	53.2%	58.5%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.3%	48.7%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	38.8%	1.12×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	40.3%	0.97×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.4%	39.1%	32.1%	1.22×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.9%	35.4%	39.9%	0.89×	2.83
4-5 goals	26.9%	30.2%	32.6%	0.93×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.1%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.37
7+ goals	3.3%	2.6%	3.8%	0.67×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim never behind	41.0%	48.2%	40.4%	1.19×	2.08
Werder Bremen never behind	37.0%	44.7%	47.1%	0.95×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	44.8%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	55.2%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.7%	52.6%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.3%	47.4%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.1%	52.9%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	47.9%	47.1%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.6%	82.4%	78.0%	1.06×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	80.0%	82.4%	82.1%	1.00×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	64.8%	61.8%	56.5%	1.09×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.6%	58.8%	62.2%	0.95×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	42.4%	41.2%	37.8%	1.09×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	35.2%	38.2%	43.5%	0.88×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	20.0%	17.6%	17.9%	0.99×	5.67
Over 4.5 goals	18.4%	17.6%	22.0%	0.80×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	11.1%	0.70×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.7%	92.5%	87.6%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.9%	75.9%	72.0%	1.05×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.3%	72.6%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.6%	51.8%	46.5%	1.12×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.4%	48.2%	53.5%	0.90×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.7%	27.4%	22.3%	1.23×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.1%	24.1%	28.0%	0.86×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.3%	7.6%	12.4%	0.61×	13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	4.1%	0.68×	36.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.1%	86.3%	84.8%	1.02×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.6%	71.3%	76.7%	0.93×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.3%	63.6%	58.8%	1.08×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.7%	36.4%	41.2%	0.88×	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.4%	28.7%	23.3%	1.23×	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.9%	13.7%	15.2%	0.90×	7.30

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.4%	82.8%	84.3%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.6%	79.7%	73.4%	1.09×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	53.1%	44.7%	1.19×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	46.9%	55.3%	0.85×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.4%	20.3%	26.6%	0.76×	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.6%	17.2%	15.7%	1.10×	5.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen not to score in both halves	75.3%	78.1%	64.8%	1.21×	1.28
Hoffenheim not to score in both halves	71.0%	73.7%	72.4%	1.02×	1.36
Hoffenheim to score in both halves	29.0%	26.3%	27.6%	0.95×	3.81
Werder Bremen to score in both halves	24.7%	21.9%	35.2%	0.62×	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.2%	60.2%	59.3%	1.01×	1.66
Only Hoffenheim scores	18.6%	16.1%	15.5%	1.04×	6.22
Only Werder Bremen scores	16.2%	16.1%	19.6%	0.82×	6.22
Neither team scores	5.0%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.77

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.1%	1.13×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	18.8%	1.20×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.4%	21.7%	0.80×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	12.1%	12.2%	0.99×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	11.1%	1.09×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.4%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.64

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.4%	45.1%	55.3%	0.81×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.4%	29.2%	1.15×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	19.6%	17.2%	15.7%	1.10×	5.80

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen not to win both halves	91.7%	93.9%	84.2%	1.12×	1.07
Hoffenheim not to win both halves	89.1%	88.0%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Hoffenheim to win both halves	10.9%	12.0%	9.5%	1.27×	8.30
Werder Bremen to win both halves	8.3%	6.1%	15.8%	0.38×	16.46

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hoffenheim to win either half	56.3%	59.4%	49.4%	1.20×	1.68
Werder Bremen to win either half	51.6%	54.9%	57.8%	0.95×	1.82
Werder Bremen to win neither half	48.4%	45.1%	42.2%	1.07×	2.22
Hoffenheim to win neither half	43.7%	40.6%	50.6%	0.80×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Werder Bremen not to win to nil	83.8%	83.0%	80.4%	1.03×	1.20
Hoffenheim not to win to nil	81.4%	83.0%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Hoffenheim to win to nil	18.6%	17.0%	15.5%	1.10×	5.89
Werder Bremen to win to nil	16.2%	17.0%	19.6%	0.86×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.3%	24.2%	24.8%	0.97×	4.14
Hoffenheim by 1	20.4%	24.1%	16.5%	1.47×	4.14
Werder Bremen by 1	19.0%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91
Hoffenheim by 2	12.0%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.48
Werder Bremen by 2	10.4%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.48
Hoffenheim by 3+	7.9%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.78
Werder Bremen by 3+	6.2%	7.3%	11.7%	0.62×	13.79