Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.89 – -0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
36.9%
Draw
29.4%
Mainz 05 win
33.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.42 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 0.89 xGMainz 05 2.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Mainz 05 |
Stefan Posch | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Silvan Widmer |
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 4' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Philipp Mwene |
| 6' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
| 7' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Cameron Puertas |
| 15' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 21' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Posch | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 30' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 50' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sheraldo Becker |
| 60' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 61' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 73' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 77' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isaac Schmidt |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 85' |
Werder Bremen |
Salim Musah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Werder Bremen |
Patrice Covic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 90' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Romano Schmid ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.39 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Marco Grüll MR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Julián Malatini DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Mick Schmetgens Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Salim Musah Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 1.29 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 1.31 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| Silvan Widmer DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 1.23 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kacper Potulski Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sota Kawasaki Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |