Werder Bremen v Paderborn — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
11 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.86 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.67 – +0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyWerder Bremen win
52.5%
Draw
25.0%
Paderborn win
22.5%
Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 12.4%
- 1-1 11.9%
- 2-0 9.9%
- 2-1 9.5%
- 0-0 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | Under 2.5 | 52.8% |
| BTTS yes | 49.2% | BTTS no | 50.8% |
| Werder Bremen 1+ | 79.9% | Werder Bremen 2+ | 47.6% |
| Paderborn 1+ | 61.6% | Paderborn 2+ | 24.9% |
Expected goals 1.60 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
89/100
Data quality
80/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
Positive factors
- Werder Bremen have created 1.15 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 2.03.
- At home Werder Bremen average 1.22 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Werder Bremen have scored 2.00 a match from 1.15 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
- Paderborn have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Werder Bremen have an estimated 52.5% win probability, against 25.0% for the draw and 22.5% for Paderborn. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for Werder Bremen and 0.96 for Paderborn.
Why Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen have created 1.15 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 2.03. At home Werder Bremen average 1.22 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Paderborn can win
Paderborn have created 1.03 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 1.98. Away from home Paderborn average 0.50 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Werder Bremen were missing 1.14 expected goal involvements a match against 0.16.
Key players
Werder Bremen's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Chuki (0.44), Romano Schmid (0.44), Niclas Füllkrug (0.42). Paderborn's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marvin Pieringer (0.31), Laurin Curda (0.28), Stefano Marino (0.24).
Availability
2 of Werder Bremen's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Werder Bremen's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Werder Bremen: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces. Paderborn: 48% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.13 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Werder Bremen are the model's most likely outcome at 52.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.4%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen have scored 14 from 12.6 expected and conceded 19 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLLLWDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 12.6 xG
conceded 19
from 20.2 xG
Paderborn are conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWLD last 6
scored 5
from 6.5 xG
conceded 9
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.60–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.63–0.98 | 1-0 12% | 48% | 50% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–0.83 | 1-0 15% | 41% | 44% | Home ✗ | |
| deep | 1.63–0.98 | 1-0 12% | 48% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to win | 52.5% | 51.5% | 41.9% | 1.23× | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.5% | 24.7% | 0.99× | 4.09 |
| Paderborn to win | 22.7% | 24.5% | 33.5% | 0.73× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen & not both score | 30.1% | 29.5% | 19.9% | 1.49× | 3.38 |
| Werder Bremen & both teams score | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.2% | 0.98× | 4.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 17.4% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.56 |
| Paderborn & not both score | 12.3% | 13.3% | 15.2% | 0.87× | 7.54 |
| Paderborn & both teams score | 10.5% | 13.3% | 18.5% | 0.72× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 1.45× | 12.00 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen & over 1.5 | 40.6% | 40.2% | 35.8% | 1.12× | 2.49 |
| Werder Bremen & under 3.5 | 36.6% | 34.9% | 21.7% | 1.61× | 2.87 |
| Werder Bremen & over 2.5 | 30.8% | 30.7% | 29.9% | 1.03× | 3.25 |
| Werder Bremen & under 2.5 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 12.1% | 1.78× | 4.63 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 15.2% | 1.19× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 15.2% | 1.19× | 5.56 |
| Paderborn & under 3.5 | 17.7% | 18.0% | 19.4% | 0.93× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 17.4% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.56 |
| Werder Bremen & over 3.5 | 15.9% | 18.0% | 20.3% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Paderborn & over 1.5 | 15.5% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 0.65× | 5.56 |
| Werder Bremen & under 1.5 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 6.2% | 2.06× | 7.79 |
| Paderborn & over 2.5 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 23.5% | 0.55× | 7.79 |
| Paderborn & under 2.5 | 10.7% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 1.26× | 7.79 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 1.37× | 12.62 |
| Paderborn & under 1.5 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.34× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.82× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.82× | 12.62 |
| Paderborn & over 3.5 | 5.1% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 0.56× | 12.62 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (1UP) | 65.9% | 70.0% | 60.2% | 1.16× | 1.43 |
| Paderborn (1UP) | 39.6% | 34.1% | 52.3% | 0.65× | 2.94 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (2UP) | 52.5% | 55.3% | 45.3% | 1.22× | 1.81 |
| Paderborn (2UP) | 22.7% | 23.2% | 36.5% | 0.64× | 4.31 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to win 2nd half | 42.2% | 41.9% | 37.2% | 1.12× | 2.39 |
| 2nd half drawn | 36.2% | 36.2% | 33.6% | 1.08× | 2.76 |
| Paderborn to win 2nd half | 21.6% | 24.0% | 29.3% | 0.82× | 4.16 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn under 1.5 in 2nd half | 89.0% | 87.1% | 79.3% | 1.10× | 1.15 |
| Paderborn under 0.5 in 2nd half | 57.0% | 55.0% | 43.2% | 1.27× | 1.82 |
| Paderborn over 0.5 in 2nd half | 43.0% | 45.0% | 56.8% | 0.79× | 2.22 |
| Paderborn over 1.5 in 2nd half | 11.0% | 12.9% | 20.7% | 0.62× | 7.74 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 1.5 in 2nd half | 76.7% | 75.5% | 74.3% | 1.02× | 1.32 |
| Werder Bremen over 0.5 in 2nd half | 59.9% | 58.2% | 62.9% | 0.92× | 1.72 |
| Werder Bremen under 0.5 in 2nd half | 40.1% | 41.8% | 37.1% | 1.13× | 2.39 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 in 2nd half | 23.3% | 24.5% | 25.7% | 0.95× | 4.08 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn (+2.5) | 88.0% | 88.5% | 88.0% | 1.01× | 1.13 |
| Werder Bremen (+0.5) | 77.3% | 78.5% | 66.5% | 1.18× | 1.27 |
| Paderborn (+1.5) | 71.9% | 73.6% | 75.3% | 0.98× | 1.36 |
| Werder Bremen (-0.5) | 52.5% | 52.5% | 41.9% | 1.25× | 1.91 |
| Paderborn (+0.5) | 47.5% | 47.6% | 58.1% | 0.82× | 2.10 |
| Werder Bremen (-1.5) | 28.1% | 26.4% | 24.7% | 1.07× | 3.79 |
| Paderborn (-0.5) | 22.7% | 21.5% | 33.5% | 0.64× | 4.65 |
| Werder Bremen (-2.5) | 12.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 0.96× | 8.66 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn to concede | 80.4% | 81.5% | 79.2% | 1.03× | 1.23 |
| Paderborn clean sheet | 19.6% | 18.5% | 20.8% | 0.89× | 5.40 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn to concede in 1st half | 51.1% | 51.0% | 52.1% | 0.98× | 1.96 |
| Paderborn clean sheet in 1st half | 48.9% | 49.0% | 47.9% | 1.02× | 2.04 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn to concede in 2nd half | 59.9% | 57.9% | 62.9% | 0.92× | 1.73 |
| Paderborn clean sheet in 2nd half | 40.1% | 42.1% | 37.1% | 1.14× | 2.37 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn under 6.5 corners | 84.3% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Paderborn under 5.5 corners | 74.5% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Paderborn over 2.5 corners | 72.8% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Paderborn under 4.5 corners | 61.0% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Paderborn over 3.5 corners | 55.5% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Paderborn under 3.5 corners | 44.5% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Paderborn over 4.5 corners | 39.0% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Paderborn under 2.5 corners | 27.2% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Paderborn over 5.5 corners | 25.5% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Paderborn over 6.5 corners | 15.7% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn under 3.5 goals | 98.2% | 97.5% | 92.6% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Paderborn under 2.5 goals | 92.3% | 92.3% | 79.1% | 1.17× | 1.08 |
| Paderborn under 1.5 goals | 74.3% | 71.9% | 57.1% | 1.26× | 1.39 |
| Paderborn over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | 63.2% | 74.5% | 0.85× | 1.58 |
| Paderborn under 0.5 goals | 37.5% | 36.8% | 25.5% | 1.44× | 2.72 |
| Paderborn over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 28.1% | 42.9% | 0.66× | 3.56 |
| Paderborn over 2.5 goals | 7.7% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 0.37× | 13.04 |
| Paderborn over 3.5 goals | 1.8% | 2.5% | 7.4% | 0.34× | 40.02 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn under 1.5 in 1st half | 93.3% | 94.2% | 85.7% | 1.10× | 1.06 |
| Paderborn under 0.5 in 1st half | 65.8% | 69.5% | 54.4% | 1.28× | 1.44 |
| Paderborn over 0.5 in 1st half | 34.2% | 30.5% | 45.6% | 0.67× | 3.28 |
| Paderborn over 1.5 in 1st half | 6.7% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 0.41× | 17.13 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn scores equally in both | 46.9% | 48.0% | 39.5% | 1.21× | 2.09 |
| Paderborn scores more in 2nd half | 31.4% | 33.4% | 36.6% | 0.91× | 2.99 |
| Paderborn scores more in 1st half | 21.7% | 21.7% | 24.0% | 0.90× | 4.61 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (away no bet) | 68.0% | 66.4% | 62.9% | 1.06× | 1.51 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 32.0% | 33.6% | 37.1% | 0.90× | 2.98 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn even goals | 57.0% | 56.9% | 53.6% | 1.06× | 1.76 |
| Paderborn odd goals | 43.0% | 43.1% | 46.4% | 0.93× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 86.4% | 87.8% | 75.4% | 1.16× | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 13.6% | 12.2% | 24.6% | 0.50× | 8.19 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 61.2% | 57.9% | 72.5% | 0.80× | 1.73 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 42.1% | 27.5% | 1.53× | 2.38 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 54.5% | 51.0% | 66.7% | 0.77× | 1.96 |
| Werder Bremen to score 2+ in a row | 41.2% | 38.6% | 42.6% | 0.91× | 2.59 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 19.9% | 16.4% | 29.3% | 0.56× | 6.11 |
| Paderborn to score 2+ in a row | 18.4% | 16.3% | 34.5% | 0.47× | 6.13 |
| Werder Bremen to score 3+ in a row | 16.0% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 0.92× | 6.15 |
| Paderborn to score 3+ in a row | 4.1% | 2.6% | 12.5% | 0.21× | 37.94 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen corners (+3.5) | 91.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Werder Bremen corners (+2.5) | 87.0% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Werder Bremen corners (+1.5) | 80.3% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Paderborn corners (+3.5) | 69.4% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Paderborn corners (+2.5) | 59.6% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Werder Bremen corners (-1.5) | 51.0% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Paderborn corners (+1.5) | 49.0% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Werder Bremen corners (-2.5) | 40.4% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Werder Bremen corners (-3.5) | 30.6% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Paderborn corners (-1.5) | 19.7% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Paderborn corners (-2.5) | 13.0% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
| Paderborn corners (-3.5) | 8.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 38.3% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 31.8% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.0% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 76.1% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72.0% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 68.2% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61.7% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 59.0% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51.2% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 48.8% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 41.0% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 38.3% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 31.8% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 28.0% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 23.9% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 1.84× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 1.20× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.22× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 1.28× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 1.25× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1.11× | 13.50 |
| 3-0 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 2.71× | 13.50 |
| 3-1 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.22× | 13.50 |
| 0-2 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.30 |
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.31 |
| 0-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.32 |
| 1-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.36× | 58.31 |
| 1-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.03× | 58.32 |
| 2-2 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 0.26× | 58.29 |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.31 |
| 2-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.61× | 58.32 |
| 3-2 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.30 |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.31 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.03× | 58.32 |
| 4-0 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.31 |
| 4-1 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.81× | 58.31 |
| 4-2 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.61× | 58.31 |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.88× | 58.32 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.77× | 58.32 |
| Any other score | 2.9% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.30× | 58.30 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (2nd half DNB) | 66.2% | 67.9% | 55.9% | 1.21× | 1.47 |
| Paderborn (2nd half DNB) | 33.8% | 32.1% | 44.1% | 0.73× | 3.11 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen leading at HT (DNB) | 66.6% | 74.2% | 55.7% | 1.33× | 1.35 |
| Paderborn leading at HT (DNB) | 33.4% | 25.8% | 44.3% | 0.58× | 3.88 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen or draw (1X) | 77.3% | 75.5% | 66.5% | 1.14× | 1.32 |
| Werder Bremen or Paderborn (12) | 75.3% | 75.5% | 75.3% | 1.00× | 1.32 |
| Paderborn or draw (X2) | 47.5% | 48.5% | 58.1% | 0.83× | 2.06 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen or draw at HT | 80.8% | 83.9% | 70.7% | 1.19× | 1.19 |
| Paderborn or draw at HT | 61.7% | 61.3% | 63.1% | 0.97× | 1.63 |
| Werder Bremen or Paderborn at HT | 57.5% | 57.3% | 66.1% | 0.87× | 1.74 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen or draw (1UP) | 77.3% | 84.1% | 73.7% | 1.14× | 1.19 |
| Paderborn or draw (1UP) | 47.5% | 52.8% | 64.7% | 0.82× | 1.89 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen or draw in 2nd half | 78.4% | 76.0% | 70.7% | 1.07× | 1.32 |
| Werder Bremen or Paderborn in 2nd half | 63.8% | 63.8% | 66.4% | 0.96× | 1.57 |
| Paderborn or draw in 2nd half | 57.8% | 58.1% | 62.8% | 0.93× | 1.72 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 63.3% | 61.4% | 53.8% | 1.14× | 1.63 |
| Neither half drawn | 36.7% | 38.6% | 46.2% | 0.84× | 2.59 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (DNB) | 69.8% | 67.4% | 55.5% | 1.21× | 1.48 |
| Paderborn (DNB) | 30.2% | 32.6% | 44.5% | 0.73× | 3.07 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to score first | 57.8% | 62.5% | 51.2% | 1.22× | 1.60 |
| Paderborn to score first | 34.8% | 27.5% | 43.2% | 0.64× | 3.64 |
| No goal scored | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 1.30× | 13.31 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 51.2% | 59.5% | 0.86× | 1.95 |
| Not both teams to score | 49.7% | 48.8% | 40.5% | 1.20× | 2.05 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 39.8% | 38.4% | 27.8% | 1.38× | 2.60 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 38.5% | 38.4% | 50.1% | 0.77× | 2.60 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.7% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 1.29× | 8.09 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.9% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 0.64× | 12.04 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 87.5% | 85.6% | 79.4% | 1.08× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 12.5% | 14.4% | 20.6% | 0.70× | 6.95 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 74.2% | 74.0% | 65.0% | 1.14× | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 25.8% | 26.0% | 35.0% | 0.74× | 3.85 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 61.3% | 65.8% | 51.2% | 1.29× | 1.52 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 21.2% | 20.7% | 28.3% | 0.73× | 4.82 |
| Both score 1st half only | 13.0% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 0.77× | 9.26 |
| Both score in both halves | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 0.73× | 19.97 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 82.5% | 83.2% | 79.3% | 1.05× | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 17.5% | 16.8% | 20.7% | 0.81× | 5.95 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 52.3% | 53.0% | 67.6% | 0.78× | 1.89 |
| A half without a goal | 47.7% | 47.0% | 32.4% | 1.45× | 2.13 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.8% | 47.2% | 38.5% | 1.23× | 2.12 |
| 0-1 goals | 26.5% | 26.6% | 17.6% | 1.51× | 3.76 |
| 4-6 goals | 24.9% | 22.9% | 40.1% | 0.57× | 4.36 |
| 7+ goals | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 0.45× | 54.51 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn to score exactly 0 | 37.5% | 35.9% | 25.5% | 1.41× | 2.78 |
| Paderborn to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 35.9% | 31.7% | 1.13× | 2.78 |
| Paderborn to score exactly 2 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 22.2% | 0.88× | 5.11 |
| Paderborn to score 3+ | 7.7% | 8.6% | 20.9% | 0.41× | 11.69 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to score exactly 1 | 31.9% | 32.5% | 28.7% | 1.13× | 3.08 |
| Werder Bremen to score exactly 2 | 26.0% | 26.6% | 23.2% | 1.14× | 3.76 |
| Werder Bremen to score 3+ | 22.4% | 23.3% | 27.6% | 0.84× | 4.29 |
| Werder Bremen to score exactly 0 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 20.8% | 0.90× | 5.32 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 42.5% | 42.7% | 33.9% | 1.26× | 2.34 |
| Werder Bremen leading at HT | 38.3% | 38.7% | 36.9% | 1.05× | 2.59 |
| Paderborn leading at HT | 19.2% | 16.1% | 29.3% | 0.55× | 6.20 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen -1: 2 | 47.5% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Werder Bremen -1: 1 | 28.1% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Werder Bremen -1: X | 24.5% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn (0:1) | 47.5% | 46.1% | 58.1% | 0.79× | 2.17 |
| Werder Bremen (0:1) | 28.1% | 27.0% | 24.7% | 1.09× | 3.70 |
| Draw (0:1) | 24.5% | 24.2% | 17.3% | 1.40× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn (0:2) | 71.9% | 75.7% | 75.3% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Draw (0:2) | 16.1% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 1.18× | 6.55 |
| Werder Bremen (0:2) | 12.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 0.92× | 9.11 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn (0:3) | 88.0% | 90.7% | 88.0% | 1.03× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 1.16× | 17.17 |
| Werder Bremen (0:3) | 4.2% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 0.33× | 42.04 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn (0:4) | 95.8% | 98.1% | 92.9% | 1.06× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.9% | 1.2% | 5.0% | 0.24× | 81.91 |
| Werder Bremen (0:4) | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.54× | 82.10 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (1:0) | 77.3% | 78.7% | 66.5% | 1.18× | 1.27 |
| Draw (1:0) | 14.7% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 0.77× | 7.85 |
| Paderborn (1:0) | 8.0% | 6.9% | 17.1% | 0.40× | 14.47 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (2:0) | 92.0% | 94.0% | 82.9% | 1.13× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 5.8% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 0.64× | 15.71 |
| Paderborn (2:0) | 2.2% | 2.3% | 7.3% | 0.31× | 43.64 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 45.0% | 48.5% | 47.3% | 1.03× | 2.06 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 29.1% | 26.3% | 26.0% | 1.01× | 3.81 |
| Halves equal | 25.9% | 26.2% | 26.9% | 0.98× | 3.81 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to concede | 62.5% | 63.7% | 74.5% | 0.85× | 1.57 |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 37.5% | 36.3% | 25.5% | 1.42× | 2.75 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen clean sheet in 1st half | 65.8% | 69.7% | 54.4% | 1.28× | 1.43 |
| Werder Bremen to concede in 1st half | 34.2% | 30.3% | 45.6% | 0.66× | 3.30 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen clean sheet in 2nd half | 57.0% | 55.3% | 43.2% | 1.28× | 1.81 |
| Werder Bremen to concede in 2nd half | 43.0% | 44.7% | 56.8% | 0.79× | 2.24 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen over 2.5 corners | 87.7% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Werder Bremen over 3.5 corners | 76.6% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Werder Bremen over 4.5 corners | 63.3% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Werder Bremen under 6.5 corners | 63.2% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Werder Bremen under 5.5 corners | 50.5% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Werder Bremen over 5.5 corners | 49.5% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Werder Bremen under 4.5 corners | 36.7% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Werder Bremen over 6.5 corners | 36.8% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Werder Bremen under 3.5 corners | 23.4% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Werder Bremen under 2.5 corners | 12.3% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.29 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 3.5 goals | 91.7% | 92.2% | 88.5% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Werder Bremen over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | 82.2% | 79.2% | 1.04× | 1.22 |
| Werder Bremen under 2.5 goals | 77.6% | 77.7% | 72.4% | 1.07× | 1.29 |
| Werder Bremen under 1.5 goals | 51.5% | 53.2% | 49.3% | 1.08× | 1.88 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals | 48.5% | 46.8% | 50.7% | 0.92× | 2.14 |
| Werder Bremen over 2.5 goals | 22.4% | 22.3% | 27.6% | 0.81× | 4.49 |
| Werder Bremen under 0.5 goals | 19.6% | 17.8% | 20.8% | 0.86× | 5.61 |
| Werder Bremen over 3.5 goals | 8.3% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 0.67× | 12.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 1.5 in 1st half | 83.9% | 84.0% | 80.5% | 1.04× | 1.19 |
| Werder Bremen over 0.5 in 1st half | 51.1% | 50.8% | 52.1% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Werder Bremen under 0.5 in 1st half | 48.9% | 49.2% | 47.9% | 1.03× | 2.03 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 in 1st half | 16.1% | 16.0% | 19.5% | 0.82× | 6.25 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen scores more in 2nd half | 38.3% | 37.8% | 38.1% | 0.99× | 2.64 |
| Werder Bremen scores equally in both | 34.7% | 33.2% | 36.6% | 0.91× | 3.01 |
| Werder Bremen scores more in 1st half | 27.0% | 27.8% | 25.4% | 1.10× | 3.59 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 52.1% | 51.4% | 42.4% | 1.21× | 1.95 |
| Paderborn (home no bet) | 47.9% | 48.6% | 57.6% | 0.84× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen even goals | 51.9% | 50.7% | 52.5% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Werder Bremen odd goals | 48.1% | 49.3% | 47.5% | 1.04× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 32.2% | 33.1% | 22.9% | 1.44× | 3.02 |
| HT 1-0 | 23.0% | 24.4% | 19.5% | 1.25× | 4.10 |
| HT 0-1 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 0.66× | 9.17 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.6% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 0.72× | 14.37 |
| HT 2-0 | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 0.73× | 14.39 |
| Any other HT score | 4.5% | 2.4% | 6.7% | 0.36× | 41.93 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 0.56× | 42.00 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 0.33× | 42.04 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 0.68× | 42.09 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.73× | 42.18 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen at HT / Werder Bremen at FT | 32.0% | 32.2% | 28.3% | 1.14× | 3.11 |
| Draw at HT / Werder Bremen at FT | 18.0% | 16.8% | 10.6% | 1.58× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 15.4% | 16.7% | 13.7% | 1.22× | 5.97 |
| Paderborn at HT / Paderborn at FT | 12.1% | 12.7% | 20.4% | 0.62× | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Paderborn at FT | 9.2% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 0.61× | 16.61 |
| Werder Bremen at HT / Draw at FT | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 0.66× | 28.66 |
| Paderborn at HT / Draw at FT | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 0.59× | 28.67 |
| Paderborn at HT / Werder Bremen at FT | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.04× | 28.75 |
| Werder Bremen at HT / Paderborn at FT | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 0.95× | 28.79 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to score last | 57.8% | 56.2% | 50.0% | 1.12× | 1.78 |
| Paderborn to score last | 34.8% | 33.0% | 44.4% | 0.74× | 3.03 |
| No goal scored | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 1.30× | 13.31 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 92.7% | 92.6% | 94.2% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Werder Bremen to lead by 1 at any time | 65.9% | 69.4% | 60.2% | 1.15× | 1.44 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 46.2% | 44.4% | 55.9% | 0.79× | 2.25 |
| Paderborn to lead by 1 at any time | 39.6% | 34.6% | 52.3% | 0.66× | 2.89 |
| Werder Bremen to lead by 2 at any time | 34.1% | 29.9% | 33.1% | 0.90× | 3.34 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 17.2% | 15.0% | 25.5% | 0.59× | 6.65 |
| Werder Bremen to lead by 3 at any time | 14.1% | 10.5% | 15.7% | 0.67× | 9.56 |
| Paderborn to lead by 2 at any time | 12.3% | 10.4% | 23.6% | 0.44× | 9.59 |
| Paderborn to lead by 3 at any time | 3.1% | 1.6% | 10.0% | 0.16× | 61.13 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen most corners | 61.8% | 60.5% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Paderborn most corners | 28.2% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
| Corners level | 10.0% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.94 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.7% | 87.4% | 83.2% | 1.05× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.2% | 83.4% | 72.1% | 1.16× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 71.7% | 72.4% | 78.5% | 0.92× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 68.5% | 68.9% | 71.3% | 0.97× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 66.0% | 68.9% | 50.4% | 1.37× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.1% | 63.3% | 60.2% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.8% | 48.5% | 38.5% | 1.26× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 46.7% | 48.5% | 58.9% | 0.82× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 44.2% | 43.6% | 31.6% | 1.38× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 43.4% | 43.6% | 51.7% | 0.84× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.0% | 39.2% | 40.7% | 0.96× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 24.9% | 24.5% | 40.1% | 0.61× | 4.08 |
| 4-5 goals | 21.7% | 24.5% | 32.9% | 0.74× | 4.08 |
| 5-6 goals | 10.7% | 14.8% | 18.4% | 0.81× | 6.75 |
| 7+ goals | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 0.62× | 39.21 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen never behind | 53.0% | 62.9% | 47.7% | 1.32× | 1.59 |
| Paderborn never behind | 26.8% | 29.9% | 39.8% | 0.75× | 3.35 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.7% | 50.9% | 45.2% | 1.13× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.3% | 49.1% | 54.8% | 0.90× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.2% | 57.9% | 52.4% | 1.10× | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.8% | 42.1% | 47.6% | 0.89× | 2.37 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.6% | 51.9% | 52.9% | 0.98× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.4% | 48.1% | 47.1% | 1.02× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 95.0% | 95.4% | 88.8% | 1.08× | 1.05 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92.7% | 92.3% | 94.2% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87.6% | 87.6% | 77.7% | 1.13× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | 72.4% | 82.4% | 0.88× | 1.38 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73.4% | 72.4% | 56.0% | 1.29× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 1.41× | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 47.5% | 62.8% | 0.76× | 2.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 27.6% | 17.6% | 1.57× | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 27.6% | 44.0% | 0.63× | 3.63 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12.4% | 12.4% | 22.3% | 0.56× | 8.07 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.34× | 12.92 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.0% | 4.6% | 11.2% | 0.41× | 21.89 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.2% | 97.2% | 95.6% | 1.02× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 94.6% | 92.4% | 87.4% | 1.06× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 85.5% | 86.7% | 71.5% | 1.21× | 1.15 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 66.0% | 67.4% | 45.8% | 1.47× | 1.48 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 64.6% | 61.9% | 78.1% | 0.79× | 1.62 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 35.4% | 38.1% | 21.9% | 1.74× | 2.63 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 34.0% | 32.6% | 54.2% | 0.60× | 3.07 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 14.5% | 13.3% | 28.5% | 0.47× | 7.53 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 5.4% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 0.60× | 13.16 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 0.63× | 35.71 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 89.3% | 89.1% | 84.7% | 1.05× | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 68.6% | 68.6% | 58.7% | 1.17× | 1.46 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 67.8% | 68.6% | 77.1% | 0.89× | 1.46 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 32.2% | 31.4% | 22.9% | 1.37× | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 31.4% | 31.4% | 41.3% | 0.76× | 3.18 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 10.7% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 0.71× | 9.14 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 81.5% | 83.1% | 72.9% | 1.14× | 1.20 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 77.1% | 79.5% | 84.8% | 0.94× | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 56.6% | 55.5% | 44.2% | 1.25× | 1.80 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 43.4% | 44.5% | 55.8% | 0.80× | 2.25 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 22.9% | 20.5% | 15.2% | 1.35× | 4.87 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 18.5% | 16.9% | 27.1% | 0.62× | 5.92 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn not to score in both halves | 85.3% | 85.5% | 72.0% | 1.19× | 1.17 |
| Werder Bremen not to score in both halves | 69.4% | 69.8% | 64.1% | 1.09× | 1.43 |
| Werder Bremen to score in both halves | 30.6% | 30.2% | 35.9% | 0.84× | 3.32 |
| Paderborn to score in both halves | 14.7% | 14.5% | 28.0% | 0.52× | 6.91 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 53.8% | 59.5% | 0.90× | 1.86 |
| Only Werder Bremen scores | 30.1% | 33.2% | 19.9% | 1.67× | 3.01 |
| Only Paderborn scores | 12.3% | 11.0% | 15.2% | 0.73× | 9.08 |
| Neither team scores | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 1.24× | 14.04 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 25.0% | 24.9% | 19.7% | 1.26× | 4.02 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.8% | 22.6% | 19.0% | 1.19× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 19.2% | 17.5% | 12.0% | 1.46× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.2% | 12.1% | 21.9% | 0.55× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 7.4% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 0.68× | 13.12 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 1.32× | 13.12 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.0% | 4.5% | 11.2% | 0.40× | 22.40 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.5% | 37.3% | 35.9% | 1.04× | 2.68 |
| No goals in 1st half | 32.2% | 35.6% | 22.9% | 1.55× | 2.81 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 20.7% | 21.5% | 26.1% | 0.82× | 4.66 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 10.7% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 0.71× | 9.23 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 43.4% | 44.3% | 55.8% | 0.79× | 2.26 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.7% | 33.8% | 29.2% | 1.16× | 2.96 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 22.9% | 22.6% | 15.2% | 1.49× | 4.42 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn not to win both halves | 95.9% | 97.1% | 90.7% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Werder Bremen not to win both halves | 83.8% | 83.9% | 83.9% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| Werder Bremen to win both halves | 16.2% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 1.00× | 6.23 |
| Paderborn to win both halves | 4.1% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 0.31× | 34.80 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to win either half | 64.3% | 65.0% | 58.1% | 1.12× | 1.54 |
| Paderborn to win neither half | 63.4% | 64.9% | 50.6% | 1.28× | 1.54 |
| Paderborn to win either half | 36.6% | 35.1% | 49.4% | 0.71× | 2.85 |
| Werder Bremen to win neither half | 35.7% | 35.0% | 41.9% | 0.83× | 2.86 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn not to win to nil | 87.7% | 88.1% | 84.8% | 1.04× | 1.14 |
| Werder Bremen not to win to nil | 69.9% | 69.7% | 80.1% | 0.87× | 1.43 |
| Werder Bremen to win to nil | 30.1% | 30.3% | 19.9% | 1.52× | 3.30 |
| Paderborn to win to nil | 12.3% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 0.78× | 8.43 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen by 1 | 24.5% | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.39× | 4.14 |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.1% | 24.7% | 0.98× | 4.14 |
| Werder Bremen by 2 | 16.1% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 1.32× | 5.87 |
| Paderborn by 1 | 14.7% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 0.71× | 8.51 |
| Werder Bremen by 3+ | 12.0% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 0.98× | 8.52 |
| Paderborn by 2 | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 0.72× | 13.90 |
| Paderborn by 3+ | 2.2% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 0.37× | 36.77 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 2.67 xGPaderborn 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
Paderborn attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Paderborn |
Steffen Tigges | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Castañeda |
| 6' |
Paderborn |
Stefano Marino | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Laurin Ulrich |
| 11' |
 Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur |
| 14' |
Werder Bremen |
Chuki | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 14' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Regeer |
| 17' |
Paderborn |
Stefano Marino | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Steffen Tigges |
| 19' |
Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 27' |
Werder Bremen |
Chuki | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 29' |
Paderborn |
Steffen Tigges | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Paderborn |
Raphael Obermair | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nahuel Nicolas Noll |
| 33' |
Werder Bremen |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 34' |
Paderborn |
Laurin Curda | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jano ter Horst |
| 35' |
Paderborn |
Steffen Tigges | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Laurin Curda |
| 37' |
Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Arthur |
| 40' |
Werder Bremen |
Arthur | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 44' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chuki |
| 47' |
Paderborn |
Gabriel Vidovic | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Paderborn |
Stefano Marino | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Laurin Ulrich |
| 53' |
Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 64' |
Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 64' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 76' |
Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Paderborn |
Santiago Castañeda | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tjark Scheller |
| 80' |
Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 80' |
Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur |
| 81' |
Werder Bremen |
Youri Regeer | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Youri Regeer |
| 90' |
Paderborn |
Rayan Philippe | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Raphael Obermair |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.54 | 0.09 | 0.98 |
| Marco Grüll AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 1.09 |
| Arthur DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.73 |
| Karl Hein GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Youri Regeer DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.37 | 0.69 |
| Ludovit Reis DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AMR | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| Chuki AMC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.42 |
| Mitchell Weiser Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.64 |
| Cedric Itten Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dariusz Stalmach Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Paul Erevbenagie Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paderborn
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Castañeda DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| Laurin Curda MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| Raphael Obermair ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Tjark Scheller DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| Jano ter Horst DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Nahuel Nicolas Noll GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Mattes Hansen DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Steffen Tigges FW | 75 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.08 | 0.90 |
| Gabriel Vidovic MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Stefano Marino FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Laurin Ulrich MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tom Baack Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Müller Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marvin Pieringer Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jonah Sticker Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |