Werder Bremen v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 16
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
19 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-3.24 – -1.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
39.2%
Draw
26.0%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
34.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen have scored 14 from 12.6 expected and conceded 19 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLLLWDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 12.6 xG
conceded 19
from 20.2 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 23 from 24.1 expected and conceded 21 from 21.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLWLWLWL last 10
scored 23
from 24.1 xG
conceded 21
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 3.24 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 3' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Arthur Vermeeren | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 36' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 45' |
Werder Bremen |
Felix Agu | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Felix Agu | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 48' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 48' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jens Stage |
| 50' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 50' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Castello Lukeba |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Stage |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Stage |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Arthur Vermeeren | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Werder Bremen |
Marvin Ducksch | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 65' |
Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amos Pieper |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 67' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Xavi Simons |
| 69' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 69' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 74' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marvin Ducksch |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Niklas Stark | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 80' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 81' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 85' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 88' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.53 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tidiam Gomis |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.83 | 0.20 | 1.21 |
| Marvin Ducksch FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.77 | 1.75 |
| Romano Schmid MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.16 | 1.14 | 2.22 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Niklas Stark DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mitchell Weiser DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 1.01 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.72 | 0.18 | 1.17 |
| Felix Agu DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavi Simons ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.08 | 0.70 |
| Arthur Vermeeren MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Castello Lukeba DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Lukas Klostermann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.01 | 0.82 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Bote Baku Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.52 |