Werder Bremen v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.10 – +0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
22.4%
Draw
26.0%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
51.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.71 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.70 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 0.90 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 7' |
 Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Agu |
| 13' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 14' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 14' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 33' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 36' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Bittencourt |
| 40' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 42' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 51' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 58' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 75' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 80' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 81' |
Werder Bremen |
Salim Musah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 88' |
Werder Bremen |
Jovan Milosevic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 92' |
Werder Bremen |
Salim Musah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Salim Musah | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jovan Milosevic |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romano Schmid AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| Cameron Puertas DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Justin Njinmah FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Felix Agu DR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Marco Grüll AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yukinari Sugawara Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Salim Musah Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jovan Milosevic Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1.03 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.90 |
| Rômulo FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Assan Ouédraogo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |