Werder Bremen v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 13
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.78 – -0.92
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Werder Bremen win
43.6%
Draw
25.8%
St. Pauli win
30.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.68–1.01 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Werder Bremen 1.78 xGSt. Pauli 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Werder Bremen attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
 St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 8' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Felix Agu |
| 9' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Werder Bremen |
Karim Coulibaly | 0.50 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 26' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 38' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 40' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 49' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isaac Schmidt |
| 62' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Friedl |
| 68' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 75' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 75' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hauke Wahl |
| 79' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Patrice Covic | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 84' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 86' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 88' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 92' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Romano Schmid FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Karl Hein GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Samuel Mbangula FWL | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Justin Njinmah FWR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Felix Agu DL | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira Lage FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| Louis Oppie ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka MR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| James Sands MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Lars Ritzka DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Manolis Saliakas Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |