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West Bromwich Albion v Millwall — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
West Bromwich Albion win
33.4%
model 34.3%
Draw
33.3%
model 31.6%
Millwall win
33.4%
model 34.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (967 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.9%
  2. 0-0 11.7%
  3. 1-0 10.0%
  4. 0-1 9.9%
  5. 2-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.540.3% Under 2.559.7%
BTTS yes48.2% BTTS no51.8%
West Bromwich Albion 1+68.3% West Bromwich Albion 2+31.9%
Millwall 1+68.2% Millwall 2+31.7%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.15. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
47/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 46%
53.4% fair odds 1.87
moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Millwall not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 85%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out West Bromwich Albion.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

West Bromwich Albion have an estimated 33.4% win probability, against 33.4% for Millwall and 33.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for West Bromwich Albion and 1.15 for Millwall.

Why West Bromwich Albion

Nothing in the data singles out West Bromwich Albion.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 33.3%. A combined 2.29 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.15 to 1.15. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Millwall can win

Millwall carry the stronger rating, 1534 Elo against 1462.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for West Bromwich Albion, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Millwall, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

West Bromwich Albion: 54% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Millwall: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

West Bromwich Albion are the model's most likely outcome at 33.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.15–1.15 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.96–1.06 1-1 15% 33% 42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to win 35.6% 36.3% 29.1% 1.25× 2.75
Draw 33.9% 30.4% 27.6% 1.10× 3.29
West Bromwich Albion to win 30.5% 30.4% 43.4% 0.70× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall & not both score 23.4% 21.8% 15.2% 1.43× 4.58
West Bromwich Albion & not both score 19.8% 18.0% 23.3% 0.77× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 19.0% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Draw & not both score 14.9% 13.3% 7.3% 1.82× 7.53
Millwall & both teams score 12.2% 13.3% 13.9% 0.95× 7.54
West Bromwich Albion & both teams score 10.7% 13.3% 20.2% 0.66× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & under 2.5 30.1% 30.7% 21.8% 1.41× 3.25
Draw & under 3.5 30.1% 30.7% 21.8% 1.41× 3.25
Millwall & under 3.5 29.7% 26.1% 22.3% 1.17× 3.84
West Bromwich Albion & under 3.5 25.7% 26.1% 32.4% 0.80× 3.84
Millwall & over 1.5 23.2% 21.6% 21.4% 1.01× 4.63
Millwall & under 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 12.9% 1.39× 5.56
West Bromwich Albion & over 1.5 19.3% 18.0% 32.5% 0.55× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.0% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
West Bromwich Albion & under 2.5 17.3% 18.0% 17.1% 1.05× 5.56
Millwall & over 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 14.9% 12.8% 7.3% 1.76× 7.79
West Bromwich Albion & over 2.5 13.2% 12.8% 26.4% 0.49× 7.79
Millwall & under 1.5 12.5% 12.8% 7.7% 1.66× 7.79
West Bromwich Albion & under 1.5 11.1% 12.8% 11.0% 1.16× 7.79
Millwall & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
West Bromwich Albion & over 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 11.1% 0.43× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 3.8% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 3.8% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (1UP) 49.3% 44.0% — — 2.27
West Bromwich Albion (1UP) 44.6% 38.8% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (2UP) 35.6% 37.3% — — 2.68
West Bromwich Albion (2UP) 30.5% 30.2% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 43.4% 41.9% — — 2.39
Millwall to win 2nd half 31.1% 34.1% — — 2.93
West Bromwich Albion to win 2nd half 25.5% 26.0% — — 3.85
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.7% 86.8% — — 1.15
Millwall under 0.5 in 2nd half 53.0% 52.7% — — 1.90
Millwall over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.0% 47.3% — — 2.12
Millwall over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.3% 13.2% — — 7.56
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion under 1.5 in 2nd half 89.5% 88.8% — — 1.13
West Bromwich Albion under 0.5 in 2nd half 57.9% 58.3% — — 1.72
West Bromwich Albion over 0.5 in 2nd half 42.1% 41.7% — — 2.40
West Bromwich Albion over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.5% 11.2% — — 8.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (+2.5) 96.8% 96.3% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Millwall (+1.5) 88.3% 88.5% 80.7% 1.10× 1.13
Millwall (+0.5) 69.5% 68.7% 56.6% 1.21× 1.46
West Bromwich Albion (+0.5) 64.4% 63.0% 70.9% 0.89× 1.59
Millwall (-0.5) 35.6% 37.0% 29.1% 1.28× 2.70
West Bromwich Albion (-0.5) 30.5% 31.3% 43.4% 0.72× 3.19
West Bromwich Albion (-1.5) 11.7% 11.5% 19.3% 0.60× 8.68
West Bromwich Albion (-2.5) 3.2% 3.7% 8.1% 0.46× 27.11
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to concede 61.7% 67.5% 77.6% 0.87× 1.48
Millwall clean sheet 38.3% 32.5% 22.4% 1.45× 3.08
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 1st half 66.2% 71.0% — — 1.41
Millwall to concede in 1st half 33.8% 29.0% — — 3.45
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall clean sheet in 2nd half 57.9% 57.6% — — 1.74
Millwall to concede in 2nd half 42.1% 42.4% — — 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall over 2.5 corners 79.6% 76.1% — — 1.32
Millwall under 6.5 corners 70.0% 67.6% — — 1.48
Millwall over 3.5 corners 66.5% 67.6% — — 1.48
Millwall under 5.5 corners 59.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Millwall over 4.5 corners 53.1% 53.1% — — 1.89
Millwall under 4.5 corners 46.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Millwall over 5.5 corners 40.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Millwall under 3.5 corners 33.5% 32.4% — — 3.09
Millwall over 6.5 corners 30.0% 32.4% — — 3.09
Millwall under 2.5 corners 20.4% 23.9% — — 4.18
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall under 3.5 goals 97.7% 97.5% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Millwall under 2.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Millwall under 1.5 goals 71.4% 71.8% 70.0% 1.03× 1.39
Millwall over 0.5 goals 65.3% 68.0% 69.5% 0.98× 1.47
Millwall under 0.5 goals 34.7% 32.0% 30.5% 1.05× 3.12
Millwall over 1.5 goals 28.6% 28.2% 30.0% 0.94× 3.55
Millwall over 2.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 9.4% 0.81× 13.04
Millwall over 3.5 goals 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.13× 39.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 93.8% — — 1.07
Millwall under 0.5 in 1st half 65.5% 69.8% — — 1.43
Millwall over 0.5 in 1st half 34.5% 30.2% — — 3.31
Millwall over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 6.2% — — 16.20
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall scores equally in both 44.7% 43.6% — — 2.30
Millwall scores more in 2nd half 34.6% 33.3% — — 3.00
Millwall scores more in 1st half 20.7% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 52.7% 51.7% 38.9% 1.33× 1.94
West Bromwich Albion (away no bet) 47.3% 48.3% 61.1% 0.79× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall even goals 56.0% 56.9% 52.4% 1.09× 1.76
Millwall odd goals 44.0% 43.1% 47.6% 0.91× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 93.3% 92.4% — — 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 6.7% 7.6% — — 13.14
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 52.4% 50.5% — — 1.98
Not both halves under 1.5 47.6% 49.5% — — 2.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 40.4% 38.6% — — 2.59
Millwall to score 2+ in a row 23.4% 19.6% — — 5.09
West Bromwich Albion to score 2+ in a row 19.8% 16.3% — — 6.15
Either team to score 3+ in a row 11.0% 12.0% — — 8.34
Millwall to score 3+ in a row 6.3% 5.5% — — 18.17
West Bromwich Albion to score 3+ in a row 4.8% 2.6% — — 37.94
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion corners (+3.5) 84.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
West Bromwich Albion corners (+2.5) 78.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
West Bromwich Albion corners (+1.5) 72.0% 70.7% — — 1.41
Millwall corners (+3.5) 68.9% 65.9% — — 1.52
Millwall corners (+2.5) 61.3% 61.8% — — 1.62
Millwall corners (+1.5) 52.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
West Bromwich Albion corners (-1.5) 47.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
West Bromwich Albion corners (-2.5) 38.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
West Bromwich Albion corners (-3.5) 31.1% 34.1% — — 2.93
Millwall corners (-1.5) 28.0% 29.3% — — 3.42
Millwall corners (-2.5) 21.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
Millwall corners (-3.5) 15.6% 20.2% — — 4.95
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 47.8% 41.7% — — 2.40
0-8 corners 27.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
9-11 corners 24.6% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 79.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 72.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 9.5 corners 64.3% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 12.5 corners 60.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 56.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 52.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 47.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 10.5 corners 44.0% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 12.5 corners 40.0% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 9.5 corners 35.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 27.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 20.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 15.1% 13.8% 14.5% 0.95× 7.24
0-0 14.9% 11.5% 7.3% 1.57× 8.71
0-1 12.5% 11.5% 7.7% 1.48× 8.72
1-0 11.1% 11.5% 11.0% 1.04× 8.72
0-2 7.4% 7.4% 5.3% 1.41× 13.51
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
2-1 6.5% 7.4% 11.5% 0.65× 13.51
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
0-3 2.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.30
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 4.04× 58.32
1-3 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.88× 58.32
2-2 3.4% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.30
2-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.31
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.32
3-0 2.0% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.31
3-1 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
3-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.32
4-0 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.32
4-1 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.32
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.09× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 20.18× 58.32
Any other score 0.8% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (2nd half DNB) 55.0% 53.8% — — 1.86
West Bromwich Albion (2nd half DNB) 45.0% 46.2% — — 2.16
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall leading at HT (DNB) 50.8% 56.2% — — 1.78
West Bromwich Albion leading at HT (DNB) 49.2% 43.8% — — 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall or draw (X2) 69.5% 69.6% 56.6% 1.23× 1.44
West Bromwich Albion or Millwall (12) 66.1% 69.6% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
West Bromwich Albion or draw (1X) 64.4% 63.7% 70.9% 0.90× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall or draw at HT 76.3% 79.4% — — 1.26
West Bromwich Albion or draw at HT 75.5% 79.4% — — 1.26
West Bromwich Albion or Millwall at HT 48.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall or draw (1UP) 69.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
West Bromwich Albion or draw (1UP) 64.4% 71.7% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall or draw in 2nd half 74.5% 74.0% — — 1.35
West Bromwich Albion or draw in 2nd half 68.9% 65.9% — — 1.52
West Bromwich Albion or Millwall in 2nd half 56.6% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 71.1% 70.9% — — 1.41
Neither half drawn 28.9% 29.1% — — 3.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (DNB) 53.9% 50.9% 40.1% 1.27× 1.96
West Bromwich Albion (DNB) 46.1% 49.1% 59.9% 0.82× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to score first 44.6% 41.8% — — 2.39
West Bromwich Albion to score first 40.4% 41.6% — — 2.41
No goal scored 14.9% 10.6% — — 9.45
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.1% 55.0% 45.6% 1.21× 1.82
Both teams to score 41.9% 45.0% 54.4% 0.83× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 52.1% 47.2% 37.1% 1.27× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 26.8% 33.3% 39.9% 0.83× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 15.1% 21.5% 14.5% 1.48× 4.65
Not both score & over 2.5 6.0% 8.3% 8.6% 0.96× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.9% 89.0% 89.0% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.1% 11.0% 11.0% 1.00× 9.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.7% 75.2% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.3% 24.8% — — 4.03
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 70.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 18.0% 15.1% — — 6.63
Both score 1st half only 9.6% 6.9% — — 14.55
Both score in both halves 2.3% 4.8% — — 20.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.1% 85.6% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 11.9% 14.4% — — 6.94
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 60.0% 57.1% — — 1.75
A goal in each half 40.0% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.2% 50.5% 0.94× 2.12
0-1 goals 38.5% 35.1% 25.9% 1.35× 2.85
4-6 goals 14.1% 17.0% 22.4% 0.76× 5.89
7+ goals 0.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.35× 54.49
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 39.6% 0.91× 2.78
Millwall to score exactly 0 34.7% 33.8% 30.5% 1.11× 2.96
Millwall to score exactly 2 19.4% 19.6% 20.6% 0.95× 5.11
Millwall to score 3+ 9.1% 8.6% 9.4% 0.91× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion to score exactly 0 38.3% 35.6% 22.4% 1.59× 2.81
West Bromwich Albion to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.6% 37.0% 0.96× 2.81
West Bromwich Albion to score exactly 2 17.6% 18.8% 24.6% 0.76× 5.33
West Bromwich Albion to score 3+ 7.3% 10.3% 16.1% 0.64× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 51.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Millwall leading at HT 24.5% 20.6% — — 4.85
West Bromwich Albion leading at HT 23.7% 20.6% — — 4.86
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall -1: 1 64.4% 62.5% — — 1.60
Millwall -1: X 20.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
Millwall -1: 2 14.7% 14.0% — — 7.13
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:1) 69.5% 65.3% 56.6% 1.15× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 18.8% 17.8% 24.2% 0.74× 5.61
West Bromwich Albion (0:1) 11.7% 13.7% 19.3% 0.71× 7.30
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:2) 88.3% 87.1% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.5% 7.7% 11.3% 0.68× 13.04
West Bromwich Albion (0:2) 3.2% 3.7% 8.1% 0.46× 26.69
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:3) 96.8% 96.6% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 42.12
West Bromwich Albion (0:3) 0.7% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (0:4) 99.3% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 2.4% 0.51× 82.11
West Bromwich Albion (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.10× 82.16
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion (1:0) 64.4% 65.3% 70.9% 0.92× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 20.9% 21.7% 17.4% 1.24× 4.61
Millwall (1:0) 14.7% 12.7% 11.7% 1.08× 7.86
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion (2:0) 85.3% 88.5% 88.3% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 10.3% 10.3% 8.6% 1.20× 9.75
Millwall (2:0) 4.4% 2.3% 3.2% 0.71× 43.61
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.6% 45.8% — — 2.18
Halves equal 32.5% 28.8% — — 3.47
1st half highest scoring 24.9% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion to concede 65.3% 66.7% 69.5% 0.96× 1.50
West Bromwich Albion clean sheet 34.7% 33.3% 30.5% 1.09× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion clean sheet in 1st half 65.5% 70.1% — — 1.43
West Bromwich Albion to concede in 1st half 34.5% 29.9% — — 3.35
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion clean sheet in 2nd half 53.0% 52.8% — — 1.89
West Bromwich Albion to concede in 2nd half 47.0% 47.2% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion over 2.5 corners 87.2% 86.2% — — 1.16
West Bromwich Albion over 3.5 corners 77.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
West Bromwich Albion over 4.5 corners 66.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
West Bromwich Albion under 6.5 corners 55.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
West Bromwich Albion over 5.5 corners 55.0% 57.5% — — 1.74
West Bromwich Albion under 5.5 corners 45.0% 42.5% — — 2.35
West Bromwich Albion over 6.5 corners 44.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
West Bromwich Albion under 4.5 corners 33.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
West Bromwich Albion under 3.5 corners 22.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
West Bromwich Albion under 2.5 corners 12.8% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion under 3.5 goals 98.3% 96.4% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
West Bromwich Albion under 2.5 goals 92.7% 92.2% 83.9% 1.10× 1.08
West Bromwich Albion under 1.5 goals 75.1% 77.7% 59.4% 1.31× 1.29
West Bromwich Albion over 0.5 goals 61.7% 63.6% 77.6% 0.82× 1.57
West Bromwich Albion under 0.5 goals 38.3% 36.4% 22.4% 1.62× 2.75
West Bromwich Albion over 1.5 goals 24.9% 22.3% 40.6% 0.55× 4.49
West Bromwich Albion over 2.5 goals 7.3% 7.8% 16.1% 0.48× 12.87
West Bromwich Albion over 3.5 goals 1.7% 3.6% 5.2% 0.70× 27.60
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion under 1.5 in 1st half 93.5% 94.8% — — 1.05
West Bromwich Albion under 0.5 in 1st half 66.2% 69.3% — — 1.44
West Bromwich Albion over 0.5 in 1st half 33.8% 30.7% — — 3.26
West Bromwich Albion over 1.5 in 1st half 6.5% 5.2% — — 19.40
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion scores equally in both 47.5% 47.1% — — 2.12
West Bromwich Albion scores more in 2nd half 30.8% 33.1% — — 3.02
West Bromwich Albion scores more in 1st half 21.7% 21.1% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall (home no bet) 51.3% 51.4% 51.3% 1.00× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 48.7% 48.6% 48.7% 1.00× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion even goals 57.3% 55.3% 50.5% 1.10× 1.81
West Bromwich Albion odd goals 42.7% 44.7% 49.5% 0.90× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 43.6% 39.6% — — 2.52
HT 0-1 18.1% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-0 17.6% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 7.8% 6.9% — — 14.45
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.4% — — 41.96
HT 2-0 3.7% 2.4% — — 41.97
Any other HT score 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.4% — — 42.10
HT 2-1 1.6% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 24.1% 21.7% — — 4.60
Millwall at HT / Millwall at FT 18.6% 16.8% — — 5.95
West Bromwich Albion at HT / West Bromwich Albion at FT 16.8% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Millwall at FT 15.3% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / West Bromwich Albion at FT 12.4% 12.6% — — 7.91
West Bromwich Albion at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.1% — — 16.50
Millwall at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.80
West Bromwich Albion at HT / Millwall at FT 1.7% 3.5% — — 28.91
Millwall at HT / West Bromwich Albion at FT 1.3% 3.5% — — 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall to score last 44.7% 40.2% — — 2.49
West Bromwich Albion to score last 40.4% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 14.9% 10.0% — — 10.02
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.1% 90.8% — — 1.10
Millwall to lead by 1 at any time 49.3% 44.4% — — 2.25
West Bromwich Albion to lead by 1 at any time 44.6% 39.3% — — 2.54
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 33.9% 29.8% — — 3.35
Millwall to lead by 2 at any time 18.6% 14.9% — — 6.71
West Bromwich Albion to lead by 2 at any time 15.3% 14.9% — — 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 9.3% 6.7% — — 14.87
Millwall to lead by 3 at any time 5.4% 6.6% — — 15.05
West Bromwich Albion to lead by 3 at any time 4.0% 1.6% — — 61.11
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion most corners 55.8% 55.6% — — 1.80
Millwall most corners 35.8% 39.3% — — 2.55
Corners level 8.5% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.4% 83.4% 88.8% 0.94× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.7% 78.7% 83.3% 0.94× 1.27
1-3 goals 70.5% 72.3% 69.1% 1.05× 1.38
2-6 goals 61.0% 63.3% 72.8% 0.87× 1.58
2-5 goals 59.8% 59.1% 70.2% 0.84× 1.69
2-4 goals 56.1% 59.1% 64.7% 0.91× 1.69
1-2 goals 52.3% 53.2% 44.4% 1.20× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.5% 50.5% 0.96× 2.06
3-6 goals 32.3% 35.2% 47.2% 0.75× 2.84
3-5 goals 31.1% 35.2% 44.5% 0.79× 2.84
3-4 goals 27.4% 30.2% 39.1% 0.77× 3.31
4-6 goals 14.1% 14.8% 22.4% 0.66× 6.75
4-5 goals 12.9% 14.8% 19.8% 0.75× 6.75
5-6 goals 4.9% 2.6% 8.2% 0.31× 39.03
7+ goals 0.5% 2.5% 1.4% 1.88× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millwall never behind 40.4% 48.5% — — 2.06
West Bromwich Albion never behind 35.7% 44.0% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.9% 50.9% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 54.1% 49.1% 50.6% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 60.0% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 40.0% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.8% 59.0% — — 1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.2% 41.0% — — 2.44
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.3% 95.4% 96.0% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.6% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 85.4% 87.6% 76.3% 1.15× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 85.1% 87.6% 92.7% 0.94× 1.14
Under 2.5 goals 67.2% 66.3% 51.6% 1.29× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 61.5% 61.7% 74.1% 0.83× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 38.5% 38.3% 25.9% 1.48× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 32.8% 33.7% 48.4% 0.70× 2.97
Under 0.5 goals 14.9% 12.4% 7.3% 1.70× 8.05
Over 3.5 goals 14.6% 12.4% 23.7% 0.52× 8.05
Over 4.5 goals 5.4% 7.7% 9.4% 0.82× 12.96
Over 5.5 goals 1.7% 4.6% 4.0% 1.15× 21.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.5% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.2% 97.2% 95.8% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 94.0% 92.4% 89.0% 1.04× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 82.2% 81.1% 68.5% 1.18× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.0% 51.9% 34.9% 1.49× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.0% 48.1% 65.1% 0.74× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 17.8% 18.9% 31.5% 0.60× 5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.0% 7.6% 11.0% 0.69× 13.18
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.8% 2.8% 4.2% 0.66× 35.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.5% 2.8% 1.4% 2.01× 35.65
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.7% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 79.3% 78.6% — — 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 56.4% 63.7% — — 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 43.6% 36.3% — — 2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half 20.7% 21.4% — — 4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.3% 7.2% — — 13.92
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 88.3% 85.5% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 68.8% 68.7% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.4% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.6% 31.4% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 31.2% 31.3% — — 3.20
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 11.7% 14.5% — — 6.90
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion not to score in both halves 85.8% 85.4% — — 1.17
Millwall not to score in both halves 83.8% 84.2% — — 1.19
Millwall to score in both halves 16.2% 15.8% — — 6.35
West Bromwich Albion to score in both halves 14.2% 14.6% — — 6.86
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 41.9% 46.6% 54.4% 0.86× 2.15
Only Millwall scores 23.4% 22.3% 15.2% 1.47× 4.49
Only West Bromwich Albion scores 19.8% 16.0% 23.3% 0.69× 6.23
Neither team scores 14.9% 11.0% 7.3% 1.51× 9.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.7% 24.9% 25.7% 0.97× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 23.6% 22.6% 18.7% 1.21× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 18.2% 17.5% 24.8% 0.70× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 14.9% 12.1% 7.3% 1.66× 8.24
Exactly 4 goals 9.2% 7.6% 14.4% 0.53× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 3.7% 4.5% 5.5% 0.81× 22.36
6 or more goals 1.7% 4.5% 4.0% 1.12× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 43.6% 39.6% — — 2.52
1 goal in 1st half 35.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 15.4% 15.5% — — 6.44
3+ goals in 1st half 5.3% 7.2% — — 13.92
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.1% 40.0% — — 2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half 33.6% 33.7% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 31.2% 33.7% — — 2.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion not to win both halves 93.8% 94.2% — — 1.06
Millwall not to win both halves 92.2% 94.1% — — 1.06
Millwall to win both halves 7.8% 5.9% — — 17.03
West Bromwich Albion to win both halves 6.2% 5.8% — — 17.14
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion to win neither half 57.1% 59.1% — — 1.69
Millwall to win neither half 52.3% 54.3% — — 1.84
Millwall to win either half 47.7% 45.7% — — 2.19
West Bromwich Albion to win either half 42.9% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
West Bromwich Albion not to win to nil 80.2% 83.1% 76.7% 1.08× 1.20
Millwall not to win to nil 76.6% 78.1% 84.8% 0.92× 1.28
Millwall to win to nil 23.4% 21.9% 15.2% 1.44× 4.57
West Bromwich Albion to win to nil 19.8% 16.9% 23.3% 0.73× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 33.9% 27.7% 27.6% 1.00× 3.61
Millwall by 1 20.9% 24.1% 17.4% 1.38× 4.15
West Bromwich Albion by 1 18.8% 17.1% 24.2% 0.70× 5.87
Millwall by 2 10.3% 11.7% 8.6% 1.37× 8.51
West Bromwich Albion by 2 8.5% 7.2% 11.3% 0.64× 13.90
Millwall by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 3.2% 0.84× 36.79
West Bromwich Albion by 3+ 3.2% 2.7% 8.1% 0.34× 36.83
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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