West Ham United v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 16
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 13
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 2.16
Goals − xG
+0.76 – +1.00
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
15.2%
Draw
19.0%
Arsenal win
65.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 0.98–2.24 | 0-2 10% | 62% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 1.24 xGArsenal 4.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 21' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 24' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.79 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 28' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 29' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 35' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 37' |
 West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carlos Soler |
| 37' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michail Antonio |
| 38' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 48' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 51' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oleksandr Zinchenko |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Guido Rodríguez |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raheem Sterling |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 1.43 |
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.48 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Jorginho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.09 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 81 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.94 | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.08 | 1.63 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Gabriel DC | 53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Jakub Kiwior Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Raheem Sterling Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Paquetá DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Carlos Soler AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| Emerson DL | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Michail Antonio FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Edson Álvarez Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Vladimir Coufal Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Guido Rodríguez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Andy Irving Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |