West Ham United v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 3
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.87 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-2.39 – -0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
26.9%
Draw
25.2%
Bournemouth win
47.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDLDDDLLWW last 10
scored 14
from 19.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.91 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 2.39 xGBournemouth 0.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 West Ham United |
Axel Disasi | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 0' |
West Ham United |
Axel Disasi | 0.59 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 4' |
 Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Scott |
| 5' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 21' |
West Ham United |
Soungoutou Magassa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 30' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 31' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 33' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Mavropanos |
| 41' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 41' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Soungoutou Magassa | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Amine Adli |
| 67' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 70' |
West Ham United |
Soungoutou Magassa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 70' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 73' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Brooks |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 75' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Wilson |
| 77' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan |
| 87' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Wilson |
| 94' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Evanilson FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Adli AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Brooks Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marcus Tavernier Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 1.03 |
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.78 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.83 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Soungoutou Magassa MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.16 | 0.84 |
| Mohamadou Kanté Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |