West Ham United v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 20 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 22
On target
1 – 6
Shots in box
2 – 20
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 1.06
Goals − xG
-0.26 – -1.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
28.7%
Draw
24.3%
Brentford win
46.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–1.76 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.26 xGBrentford 3.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 8' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 8' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 9' |
 West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 24' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 28' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 29' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 29' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Dango Ouattara |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 31' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.55 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 42' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kevin Schade |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andy Irving |
| 49' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 50' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 60' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Michael Kayode |
| 71' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 78' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 90' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Keane Lewis-Potter |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Crysencio Summerville AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Lucas Paquetá FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Andy Irving DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Mateus Fernandes AML | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Oliver Scarles DR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DL | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Marshall Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guido Rodríguez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 1.44 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 1.14 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.88 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1.34 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 1.49 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| Vitaly Janelt Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |