West Ham United v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.28
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -0.38
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
39.5%
Draw
23.7%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
36.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.54 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 1.25 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Konstantinos Mavropanos |
| 21' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 33' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Emerson |
| 39' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 44' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Estupiñán |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.19 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 57' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Estupiñán |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 73' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 86' |
West Ham United |
Edson Álvarez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Max Kilman |
| 86' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Evan Ferguson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 93' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mohammed Kudus ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.51 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lucas Paquetá MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Emerson DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Oliver Scarles Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vladimir Coufal Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Guido Rodríguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.88 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.82 |
| João Pedro AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Georginio Rutter FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Brajan Gruda AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mats Wieffer DMC | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Tariq Lamptey Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Evan Ferguson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.73 |