West Ham United v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 12
On target
0 – 7
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-0.22 – +0.37
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
34.7%
Draw
23.0%
Crystal Palace win
42.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.73 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.22 xGCrystal Palace 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 7' |
 West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 11' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 19' |
West Ham United |
Edson Álvarez | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 28' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 44' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Eberechi Eze |
| 54' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 60' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Mavropanos |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Edson Álvarez | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Orford |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Richards |
| 84' |
West Ham United |
Lewis Orford | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 84' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 88' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 94' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Kudus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Tomas Soucek AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Edson Álvarez MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Emerson DML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Aaron Cresswell DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Orford Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Oliver Scarles Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.55 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.54 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nathaniel Clyne Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |