West Ham United v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
33.1%
Draw
25.3%
Fulham win
41.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.64 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 1.14 xGFulham 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 6' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 14' |
 West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Clair Todibo |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 24' |
West Ham United |
Oliver Scarles | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 27' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Max Kilman |
| 29' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 40' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 46' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 52' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 62' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Soungoutou Magassa |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 73' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | Harry Wilson |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Oliver Scarles DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Freddie Potts MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| Soungoutou Magassa MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| Crysencio Summerville AMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| George Earthy Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomas Soucek Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.12 | 0.79 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Kevin AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Joshua King Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Castagne Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Issa Diop Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |