West Ham United v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 18
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.32 – 0.75
Goals − xG
-1.06 – -1.65
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
43.2%
Draw
22.3%
Manchester United win
34.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.62 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 3.06 xGManchester United 2.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Bruno Fernandes |
| 2' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Casemiro |
| 7' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 11' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 12' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 27' |
 West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 31' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 51' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michail Antonio |
| 53' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 56' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 61' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michail Antonio |
| 61' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michail Antonio |
| 72' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 73' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Danny Ings |
| 73' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.56 | From Corner | — | Goal | Joshua Zirkzee |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 83' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 85' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 91' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 98' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 101' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 103' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.89 | 0.62 | 0.23 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Guido Rodríguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michail Antonio FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Soler AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.21 | 0.89 |
| Tomas Soucek Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| Aaron Cresswell Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.34 | 0.88 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 1.11 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.80 | 1.79 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.38 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Christian Eriksen DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 1.02 |
| Marcus Rashford AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Amad Diallo Traore Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.56 | 0.07 |
| Victor Lindelöf Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |