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West Ham United v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 12 November 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
16 – 10
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.09 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+0.94 – +0.52
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.72.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Lucas Paquetá 2' — goalTaiwo Awoniyi 43' — goalAnthony Elanga 62' — goalJarrod Bowen 64' — goalTomas Soucek 87' — goal
West Ham United 2.06 xGNottingham Forest 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lucas Paquetá 2' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Taiwo Awoniyi 11' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lucas Paquetá 13' — Saved Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Domínguez 32' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Edson Álvarez 37' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Morgan Gibbs-White 43' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Taiwo Awoniyi 43' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Emerson 46' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Kudus 46' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Taiwo Awoniyi 47' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Emerson 48' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Kudus 48' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Anthony Elanga 52' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Morgan Gibbs-White 52' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)James Ward-Prowse 55' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Anthony Elanga 62' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jarrod Bowen 64' — Goal (0.48 xG, From Corner)Tomas Soucek 69' — Shot On Post (0.46 xG, Open Play)James Ward-Prowse 71' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Edson Álvarez 73' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Tomas Soucek 81' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Tomas Soucek 84' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Set Piece)Tomas Soucek 87' — Goal (0.09 xG, From Corner)Divock Origi 92' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)James Ward-Prowse 96' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Serge Aurier 98' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)
West Ham United attacking right Nottingham Forest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' West Ham United Lucas Paquetá 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Goal
11' Nottingham Forest Taiwo Awoniyi 0.10 Open Play Saved Shot Harry Toffolo
13' West Ham United Lucas Paquetá 0.15 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mohammed Kudus
32' Nottingham Forest Nicolás Domínguez 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Morgan Gibbs-White
37' West Ham United Edson Álvarez 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
43' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ibrahim Sangare
43' Nottingham Forest Taiwo Awoniyi 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Goal
46' West Ham United Emerson 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
46' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jarrod Bowen
47' Nottingham Forest Taiwo Awoniyi 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anthony Elanga
48' West Ham United Emerson 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot James Ward-Prowse
48' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Emerson
52' Nottingham Forest Anthony Elanga 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Odisseas Vlachodimos
52' Nottingham Forest Morgan Gibbs-White 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
55' West Ham United James Ward-Prowse 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
62' Nottingham Forest Anthony Elanga 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ola Aina
64' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.48 From Corner Goal James Ward-Prowse
69' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post
71' West Ham United James Ward-Prowse 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mohammed Kudus
73' West Ham United Edson Álvarez 0.09 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Naif Aguerd
81' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.02 Set Piece Saved Shot James Ward-Prowse
84' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.37 Set Piece Saved Shot James Ward-Prowse
87' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.09 From Corner Goal James Ward-Prowse
92' Nottingham Forest Divock Origi 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Chris Wood
96' West Ham United James Ward-Prowse 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Paquetá
98' Nottingham Forest Serge Aurier 0.06 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Harry Toffolo

Players

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Morgan Gibbs-White FWR 90 0 0 2 1 0.17 0.03 0.35
Anthony Elanga FWL 90 1 0 2 1 0.14 0.38 0.65
Orel Mangala MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Odisseas Vlachodimos GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.62
Moussa Niakhate DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Ibrahim Sangare MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.33
Harry Toffolo DL 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.29
Taiwo Awoniyi FW 79 1 0 3 0 1.03 0.00 1.06
Murillo DC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Ola Aina DR 79 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.23
Nicolás Domínguez MC 49 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.13
Danilo Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Serge Aurier Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.05
Willy Boly Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Chris Wood Sub 11 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Divock Origi Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05

West Ham United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tomas Soucek AMC 90 1 0 4 0 0.93 0.00 0.49
Jarrod Bowen FW 90 1 0 1 1 0.48 0.03 0.05
Lucas Paquetá AML 90 1 0 2 1 0.20 0.09 0.34
James Ward-Prowse DMC 90 0 2 3 5 0.15 0.98 0.31
Emerson DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.04 0.20
Mohammed Kudus AMR 90 0 0 2 2 0.07 0.17 0.23
Naif Aguerd DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.00
Vladimir Coufal DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kurt Zouma DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alphonse Areola GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Edson Álvarez DMC 82 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.03
Michail Antonio Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aaron Cresswell Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Angelo Ogbonna Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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